515
FXUS63 KGLD 272307
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
507 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record/near record high temperatures expected Friday, see
  CLIMATE section below.

- Marginal risk of severe weather across Red Willow county late
  Friday afternoon/early evening. Potential hazards include 60
  MPH wind gusts and hail up to 1 inch in diameter.

- An active weather pattern is forecast Friday night through
  Sunday night with increasing chances for rainfall and in some
  locations snowfall. Snowfall accumulations look to be under an
  inch. pattern is expected Friday afternoon through the
  weekend, including the potential for storms, rain and snow.
  Below normal temperatures also expected with low temperatures
  below freezing.

- More seasonal temperatures return Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Tonight...a few mid and high level clouds will be possible with dry
weather expected. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the
upper 30s to middle 40s in far eastern Colorado the lower 50s east
of Highway 83.

Friday-Friday night...during the day, a stationary frontal boundary
sets up in the vicinity of the KS/NE border area with a trailing
dryline type feature extending south through Oakley and Leoti. These
areas will be the focus for mid to late afternoon chances (20%) of
showers and thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather is rather
low...around 5% per SPC for severe hail and wind and thats primarily
for a small part of Red Willow county. Record and near record high
temperatures in the lower 80s to around 90 are forecast, see CLIMATE
section below.

Overnight, there will a 20%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms
generally along and north of Interstate 70 where better moisture in
the 850-500mb layer exists and lift per an approaching upper trough.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
Northerly winds gusting 25 to maybe 30 will develop after midnight
across the northwest 1/2 of the forecast area, on the backside of
the slowly departing storm system.

Saturday-Saturday night...as the surface low slowly moves east into
eastern Kansas, our area will experience north to northwest winds
gusting up to 35 mph during the day along with a 20%-40% chance of
light wraparound rain showers, mainly along and north of I-70. High
temperatures fall back into the middle 50s to near 70. The GFS model
is much cooler with highs in the middle 40s to lower 70s. Overnight,
another upper trough axis moves into the area from the west. 850-
500mb relative humidity/moisture increases, supporting 40%-80%
chances for rain showers, highest chance along and west of Highway
25. There will also be a chance for some light snow after midnight
generally along/west of Highway 25 and along/north of I-70. Snowfall
accumulation of a few tenths of an inch currently forecast across
parts of Yuma and Dundy counties. Winds come down into the 15 mph
range with low temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s.

Sunday-Sunday night...precipitation chances (rain/snow along/north
of I-70 in the morning with rain south) continue in the morning at
30%-60% (highest along/north of I-70) due to continued wraparound
before decreasing chances (20%-30%) in the afternoon. Little if any
additional snowfall accumulation currently expected with amounts
generally a trace to a few tenths of an inch, mainly from Burlington
to perhaps McCook. High temperatures will be much cooler in the
upper 40s to middle 50s, a good blend of the NBM and better
performing temperature guidance from the past several days.

Overnight, another weather system moves in from the west, bringing
with it a 20%-40% chance for light rain and snow showers with a
trace to few tenths of an inch of accumulation. Highest precipitation
chances west of Highway 27. Low temperatures fall into the lower
to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Monday...the daytime period looks to be dry with another chance (20%-
40%) of light rain showers overnight (mainly along/north of I-70) as
another weather system and favorable 850-500mb moisture moves
through from the west, ahead of another upper trough. Southeasterly
winds increase into the breezy to perhaps windy category west of
Highway 27 in the afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to be in
the lower 50s to around 60 with low temperatures in the lower to
middle 30s.

Tuesday...we`ll continue to have some low chances (20%-30%) for
afternoon and overnight light rain showers. Some light snow showers
will be possible across eastern Colorado after midnight. High
temperatures rebound into the middle 60s to upper 70s with low
temperatures in the 30 to 40 degree range. Breezy to windy westerly
winds are forecast during the day. We could have near critical to
critical fire weather conditions south of Interstate 70. Blowing
dust thresholds are being met per GFS at spotty locations west of
Highway 27 but with steep lapse rates in the 2-2.5km layer,
visibilities dont look to be reduced too much.

Wednesday...there is currently a 20% chance of spotty rain showers
during the period. High temperatures cool back into the middle 50s
to middle 60s with low temperatures in the 30s.

Thursday...dry weather is currently forecast with high temperatures
in the upper 50s to upper 60s with a dry forecast at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Isolated high based showers/virga near KGLD this
afternoon will dissipate by sunset, but may cause a brief wind
gust in excess of 30 kts. Late tomorrow afternoon, there will
be a chance for a thunderstorm at KMCK, but confidence is too
low to mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1241 AM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Record high temperatures Friday, March 28:

Goodland..........89 degrees set back in 1963
Hill City.........90 degrees set back in 1963
McCook............86 degrees set back in 1963
Burlington........83 degrees set back in 1962

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...JN