700
FXUS63 KGLD 131720
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight has a better chance for showers (30-70% chance).
  Patches of dense fog may also form.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through next week with
  highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Wednesday could see the return
  of strong winds with gusts above 50 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Satellite observations to continue to show moisture moving across the
region from the southwest on the leading edge of the upper trough.
This should keep the area under mostly cloudy skies for the
remainder of the day. With the colder air mass and cloud cover,
temperatures should peak in the 60s this afternoon. A few showers
may form and move through during the afternoon, favoring locales in
the south where some low level moisture could move in and saturate
the air enough for precip to make it to the ground.

This evening and into tonight, persistent low level flow from the
south/southeast is forecast to help saturate the lower levels. With
the low level saturating and the southeasterly/upslope flow, fog
should form and may be dense. Once more mid-level moisture surges in
after midnight, more showers should develop which could interrupt
the fog. This is why the forecast currently calls for patchy fog.
The rain itself looks to be driven by diffluence in the higher
levels, saturated air, and upglide as seen in isentropic analysis.
With this, not currently expecting storms or heavy rain. Currently
expecting around a trace to a quarter of an inch across most of the
area, with the highest amounts favoring southern and eastern locales
that should saturate first. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the
upper 40s and 50s.

Tomorrow, showers, drizzle and fog may continue through much of the
day as the upper trough is forecast to be either stationary or shift
slightly east. Along with that, the ridge in the south is forecast
to amplify a bit, keeping the moisture flow likely over the area.
Should this hold, a wet and cool day with temperatures in the 60s is
forecast for most of the area. If the upper trough shifts a bit more
to the east or if dry air can be ingested upstream, then the are
could clear from west to east during the late morning and afternoon
hours. In this case, precip would end quickly and temperatures would
warm into the 70s. Winds in either scenario should be from the south
at 10 to 25 mph, higher in Eastern Colorado which would be closer to
the next surface low.

Tomorrow night, there could be pockets of fog, but drier air is
forecast to advect in near the surface overnight. Cloud cover should
linger with the higher level moisture while winds remain roughly the
same as they were during the day. Lows are forecast to drop down
into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Wednesday, guidance is becoming more aggressive on the upper
trough in the west advancing east and deepening. In this
scenario, Wednesday would be a warm and windy day. The advancing
trough may help the ridge amplify which would give temperatures
in the 80s, especially with southerly warm air advection. The
winds would become strong as the low on the Front Range would
deepen with the trough and increase the pressure gradient. The
height fields to would become tighter with the advancing trough.
In this scenario, speeds around 25-35 mph and gusts to 60 mph
are possible. If this scenario doesn`t pan out, the trough would
instead broaden as it moves east, lessening how deep it becomes
and how deep the surface low becomes. We would still likely
warm into the 80s, but winds would be more likely to be like
Saturday, with speeds around 20-30 mph and gusts to 50 mph.
Precipitation chances are currently low with dry air forecast to
intrude into the area.

For the end of the week, the current forecast pattern is for
the Plains to be under broad troughing aloft after the main
trough axis swinging through. With this, the area would be more
seasonable with highs in the 60s and 70s and winds around 10-20
mph. Showers and storms are possible, especially on Thursday as
the remainder of the front passes through and potentially drags
some mid-level moisture through with it. We`ll need to keep an
eye out for any reinforcing trough or cold air surge, as that
could allow us to have better chances at reaching freezing
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast until about
00-03Z as cloud cover remains elevated above 7000ft. As the day
goes on, moisture should move into the area from the south. The
increase in moisture should form lower cloud ceilings that drop
to around 1000-2500ft initially, then down to 200-700ft shortly after
06Z. Mixed in may be pockets of dense fog, but cloud cover and
pockets of rain should make the dense fog spotty and
inconsistent. The low ceilings and fog/drizzle could then linger
through the remainder of the period. Be prepared for varying
conditions starting tonight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK