897
FXUS63 KGLD 241116
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the overnight
  and into the morning, mainly east of Highway 25. An isolated,
  marginally severe storm or two will be possible.

- Storms will redevelop late this afternoon in western portions
  of the area. A severe storm or two will be possible generally
  west of a Yuma, Colorado, to Leoti, Kansas, line between 4 PM
  MT and 9 PM MT. Hail up to half dollar size and wind gusts to
  60 mph may accompany stronger storms.

- Tonight, showers and thunderstorms will become numerous with a
  risk of heavy rainfall and flooding.

- A cool and wet pattern continues into early next week, but
  chances for severe storms will be low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Elevated convection will gradually translate to eastern portion
of the area through the overnight and morning hours with another
cluster moving southeast out of Nebraska. MUCAPE axis of up to
1000 j/kg will be over the western part of the area, so not
lined up well with where convection will be after 12z. However,
still up to 30 kts of deep layer shear available. May see an
isolated, marginally severe storm or two in this environment
through the morning hours with up to quarter hail and gusts to
60 mph, but overall confidence in severe is low. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible, with NAM nest showing 1-2" this
morning along and east of Highway 25 which aligns with the HREF
PMM. May see a break in the afternoon with just a few isolated
storms possible before another round comes out of Colorado
tonight. Severe risk for wind and hail will be in the southwest
portion of the area where MUCAPE of up to 1500 j/kg will be
located along with 30-35 kts of deep layer shear just along the
cool side of a stationary front. HRRR shows a discrete cell or
two possible after 22z south of I-70 and west of Highway 27
before quickly transitioning to an MCS type of cluster by
02-03z. Heavy rainfall/flooding may become a concern through the
evening and overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area
through the weekend.. on the eastern periphery of a stalled
upper level ridge (centered over the Desert Southwest, extending
NNW to the Pacific Northwest) and southwestern periphery of a
stalled upper low (centered over Ontario, with an associated
trough extending southward through the Great Lakes).

Today: A modest inverted surface ridge, extending south and
southeast from the Dakotas into the Central Plains.. reinforced
by early morning precipitation and ongoing cloud cover (as of 17
UTC) in western KS.. will persist through tonight. Current
trends suggest that weak forcing and limited/reduced diurnal
destabilization in the wake of morning precipitation and cloud
cover will likely preclude in-situ convective development over
the Goodland county warning area this afternoon. While isolated
to widely scattered diurnal convection anticipated to develop
along the Colorado Front Range/I-25 corridor late this afternoon
could conceivably progress downstream into eastern CO (via ~20
knot NW steering flow) early this evening (~01-04 UTC) -- where
low-level moisture pooling (~14-15C 850 mb dewpoints) should be
sufficient to foster marginal destabilization (~500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) despite lingering cloud cover and a highly modified
elevated mixed layer (atypically weak 700-500 mb lapse rates,
~6.5 C/km) -- current and recent runs of high-res convection
allowing guidance suggest that diurnal convection emanating from
the Rockies will be confined to areas in relative close
proximity to the Front Range (west of the Goodland CWA). This
applies to organized convection, in particular.. given that
right-mover motion will be from the N at 10-20 knots.

Tonight: Low confidence w/regard to the precipitation forecast.
High- res convection allowing guidance continues to suggest a
potential for scattered nocturnal convective development near
and/or within portions of the Goodland CWA late tonight and
early Sunday morning (06-12Z Sun).. perhaps aided/instigated by
weak low- level warm advection, a subtle small amplitude wave in
NW flow aloft or an MCV emanating from upstream convection (a
few possibilities). Considerable model-to-model and run-to-run
variability persists with regard to whether or not (and, if so,
to what extent) convective development may occur. Such model
variability, itself, is indicative of weak and/or subtle
forcing. Locally heavy rainfall appears to be the primary
convective hazard.. followed by a conditional potential for
transient organized updrafts capable of producing small (<1")
hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Sun-Sun night: 12Z operational guidance suggests that low-level
easterly /upslope/ flow on the northern periphery of a modest
lee cyclone (prognosticated to develop over southeast Colorado)
may facilitate convective development along portions of the
Palmer Divide Sunday afternoon and, ultimately, portions of
western Kansas during the late aft-eve and overnight hours.
While precipitation chances appear to be, on the whole, greater
than today (esp. Sun evening into Mon morning).. convective
coverage, evolution, organization, etc. will be highly sensitive
to any convective development that occurs late tonight and
Sunday morning.. as one might infer from simulated reflectivity
forecasts via current and recent runs of convection allowing
guidance.

Monday-Tuesday: A blocked synoptic pattern.. broadly
characterized by ridging aloft over the western CONUS and
troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS.. will persist through
early next week. With relatively little change in the synoptic
pattern, expect conditions similar to this weekend, i.e. below
average temperatures and above average precipitation chances.

Wednesday-Saturday: Long range guidance suggests that the ridge
presently located over the Desert Southwest, Intermountain West
and portions of the Pacific Coast will deamplify and migrate
eastward over the central CONUS mid-late week as an upper level
low in the eastern Pacific gradually progresses eastward ashore
the Pacific Coast. Deamplification/weakening of the ridge.. and
the likely presence of a subtropical jet over Baja CA, the
Desert Southwest and 4-Corners.. may preclude any substantial
changes in sensible weather conditions compared to previous
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Scattered storms continue across the region this morning, with
another cluster potentially impacting KMCK with a brief period
of reduced ceilings and visibility. Storms look to stay east of
KGLD so will not include a mention there. Should see only
isolated afternoon storms with a low probability of impacting
either terminal and VFR conditions. Tonight, storms will
increase in coverage with impacts to both terminals likely
and lowering ceilings overnight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...024