179
FXUS63 KGLD 091928
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
128 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable, but warming temperatures through the weekend.

- Low chance (5%) of showers tonight and showers and isolated
  storms Saturday afternoon.

- Some fire weather threat for portions of Colorado and
  Nebraska Monday and into the middle of the week as winds
  become breezy and temperatures warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025

A surface high is moving across the area which is leading to light
and varying winds across the forecast area today. Temperatures are
nicely warming up this morning as well as mid level ridging
develops over the region. High temperatures for the day remain
forecast in the mid 70s to low 80s. Tonight a few rounds of
vorticity maxima look to move north to south through the area
along with a subtle increase in mid level moisture. There is
also some forcing as well seen in the 300K isentropic ascent
level. This may be enough to bring some sprinkles or isolated
light rain to the area. Overall confidence in rainfall is low
at this time so will maintain less than 10 pops for now.

Saturday, split mid level flow continues across the area am seeing
an area of moisture lobing into the area from the east along with a
700mb vorticity maxima as well which similar to yesterday may
be enough for some shower and storm development mainly east of
Kansas Highway 27. The HREF sky cover is also showing scattered
low clouds (cumulus) developing as well which occurred
yesterday. The main difference from yesterday, at least this
time, is the lack of easterly upslope flow assisting with the
lift. Due to this will continue with a silent mention of pops
but may need to be increased over the next few shifts. Severe
weather does not look likely with this activity as the
environment does appear to be unsupportive with only a couple
hundred j/kg of CAPE; despite inverted v soundings there looks
to be very weak Corfidi upstream and downstream vectors only
around 10-20 knots. Gusty winds and brief downpours would be the
primary threats Saturday afternoon. As for high temperatures,
slightly warmer than today as mid level ridging continues across
the region with highs currently forecast in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. Winds are forecast to increase as well as 850mb jet
develops and will increase through the evening. If any
precipitation can remain in place from 00z-03Z Sunday then
rainfall may be able to persists a little longer. Due to the
intensifying jet winds are forecast to increase during the
afternoon and continue through the night with some gusts of
30-35 mph possible especially across NW portions of the area.

Sunday, a surface trough begins to move in to northwest portions
of the area continuing the breezy winds. A plume of moisture
getting disconnected from a low pressure system across eastern
Texas and Louisiana is modeled to be in place across eastern
Colorado. This may help keep humidity values up a bit than
previously thought which would end up helping any potential fire
weather concerns for Sunday. High temperatures remain forecast
in the upper 70s to low 80s. If the moisture is in place may
need to keep an eye on a 700mb shortwave Sunday night and into
Monday morning which may bring some thundershowers to eastern
Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025

Long wave troughing is forecast to develop across the western CONUS
Monday. Moisture however looks a little more impressive than what it
did 24 hours ago. The forecast however still remains dry as at this
time there is no clear cut signal for forcing to help initiate
showers or storms. With the better moisture in place concerns for
fire weather has decreased as well for counties that have not been
deemed "green" due to the recent rainfall and greenup. At this time
only our Kansas counties has been deemed green. High temperatures
again for the day are forecast in the mid to upper 80s across
the entire area.

Tuesday and Wednesday continue to have potential for relatively
the more impactful days depending on the speed of the
approaching trough. The ECMWF is bit quicker with the trough and
setting up a dry line across eastern Colorado along with
2000-2500 j/kg of MUCAPE and a developing shortwave around 21Z.
The GFS is a bit slower with the main lift of the trough
arriving Wednesday but still has a dry line and some CAPE in
place Tuesday, the source of lift however is still a bit in
question with that specific model. All in all there does appear
to be some risk for strong to potentially severe storms either
Tuesday or Wednesday but the coverage and hazards, if any, are
still in flux due to the timing issues but does need watching.

The remainder of the week remains a little uncertain due to varying
difference with the pattern as some guidance as the trough
developing into a low across the northern Plains and others
returning back to split flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1018 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025

VFR conditions remain forecast for each terminal for this TAF
period. A surface high moving across the area is leading to
variable winds for the duration of the afternoon before becoming
primarily from the southeast. Clear skies are forecast for the
afternoon today before some increases in upper level cloud
occurs as some vorticity maxima move through the area
overnight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg