778
FXUS63 KGLD 061106
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
506 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and slight to
  enhanced risk on Monday.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the overnight and early morning hours south of Interstate 70.
Otherwise, will see a break in the precipitation this morning
before another round of thunderstorms impacts the area this
afternoon and evening. Subtle shortwave trough/speed max at 500
mb will be driving synoptic scale lift. CAMs differ on the
details, but general thinking is that a cluster of storms will
develop in northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming with daytime
heating, then move across the forecast area this evening. Some
additional development is possible ahead of the main cluster
this afternoon in the Kansas/Nebraska border area along remnant
outflow boundary, which would merge with the cluster coming out
of Colorado. Environment will be characterized by moderate
instability in the afternoon (up to 2500 j/kg HREF mean) and
initial deep layer shear of 20-30 kts. However, the shear does
increase 00-06z with the 500 mb speed max, with up to 40 kts
forecast as the cluster moves through the area. This raises the
possibility of embedded supercells. The main hazard today will
again be wind, possibly extreme gusts in excess of 70 mph, along
with large hail and perhaps a tornado risk with any embedded
supercell. In addition, heavy rainfall and flash flooding cannot
be discounted with HREF PMMs showing solid probabilities of
1-2" 3-hour QPF and even some low probabilities of 3" or more.
Main timeframe for all of these hazards will be 00-06z, with
main MCS moving south after that, though some isolated storms
could linger overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The Tri-State area remains situated in a weak forcing regime,
on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge (anchored over
northern Mexico and the Southern Plains), in W to WSW flow
aloft. Weak low-level and mid-level flow, <= 15 knots from the
surface to 15 KFT AGL (up to ~500 mb) persist, with stronger
flow confined to the 200-300 mb level (25-35 KFT AGL). While
weak forcing continues to frustrate convection allowing
guidance, there appears to be a general trend/consensus that
scattered convection developing along the Colorado Front Range
and Palmer Divide will progress east toward the CO-KS border
(via modest westerly steering flow) late this afternoon and
evening (~5-10 pm MDT). Isolated convective development could
occur near Highway 50 in Hamilton/Kearny counties (perhaps
southern Greeley/Wichita counties) ~20-22 UTC this afternoon..
where observational data indicates that moisture pooling is
occurring in vicinity of a weak convergence zone.. and diurnal
Cu was already present nearby to the west, over Kiowa/Prowers
counties. A severe storm is possible ~20-22 UTC if development
does occur over southern portions of Greeley/Wichita counties,
though.. with right-mover motion from the N at ~25 knots.. left-
mover motion from the W at ~10 knots and the mean wind from the
NW at 15-20 knots.. it would be short-lived in nature (for the
Goodland county warning area). In contrast to yesterday,
unimpeded insolation and the presence of an elevated mixed layer
(700-500 mb lapse rates ~7.0 to 8.5 C/km) will yield seasonably
strong DCAPE (1500-1800 J/kg), suggesting an inherently greater
potential for severe downbursts associated with any convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Sun-Mon: Guidance indicates relatively little change in the
`big picture`, i.e. the Tri-State area will remain in a weak
forcing regime on the northern periphery of an upper level
ridge (anchored over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico) in
WSW flow aloft. Convective development, coverage and evolution
in the Goodland county warning area may be influenced (directly
or indirectly) by upstream and/or antecedent convection on each
day. Bottom line, low confidence in forecast specifics
(convective mode, coverage, evolution). Guidance does indicate
that an upper level low digging southward along the Pacific
Coast will tighten the height gradient (and magnitude of WSW
flow aloft) over the Desert Southwest, 4-Corners and portions
of the central Rockies.. suggesting that stronger deep layer
shear (and greater overall severe weather potential) will exist
on both Sun-Mon.

Tue-Sat: Long range guidance indicates that ridging aloft will
prevail over the southern CONUS, and that the Tri-State area
will remain situated on the northern periphery of the ridge, at
or near the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies.
Broadly speaking, expect near to above average temperatures and
a daily potential for late aft-eve convection (mainly in
climatologically favored locations downstream of the Colorado
Front Range).. depending on the orientation of the ridge and
proximity of the mid-latitude westerlies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR expected this morning and this afternoon at both KGLD and
KMCK. This evening, thunderstorms likely to impact both
terminals with gusty winds and periods of reduced visibility in
rain. A return to VFR is expected afterwards.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...024