597
FXUS63 KGLD 191104 CCA
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
504 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures are forecast through the weekend with
  highs generally in the 50s and 60s and lows around freezing.

- There could be some rain showers late tonight and into
  tomorrow for locales generally east of Highway 83.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Satellite observations show the upper trough still over the
Rockies and Northern Plains, with the center roughly in Arizona.
Also shown is a stream of mid-level moisture that is streaming
into Eastern Colorado that has been producing snow along with
700mb convergence. That being said, latest satellite and radar
observations show the band weakening so the heaviest snowfall
has likely already fallen. CDOT cameras show little to no
accumulations on roads with light accumulations on grassy
surfaces.

For today, the trough is forecast to begin shifting east. The
trough will likely stay west of the area and still pull some
higher level moisture over the area and not bring drier air into
the area yet. Most of the area will still see cloudy skies to
start the day, but locales further east and north should see
some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon hours. As the
system moves east, it is also forecast to remain dug into the
south which will limit the moisture streaming into the area
later in the day. As such, high temperatures will likely reach
the 50s north of I-70 in Northwest Kansas and Southwest
Nebraska. The rest of the area will likely see temperatures cap
in the 40s with the cloud cover. There could be a few rain/snow
showers through the day, but the moisture beginning to shift out
along with a general lack of forcing does not bode well for
precipitation chances.

Tonight is likely the last best chance we`ll have for
precipitation. As the trough continues to push east, it is
forecast to also begin lifting slowly to the north and bring a
surface low system northeast. The issue is that the system has
dug in far enough south that the low likely won`t lift until it
is well past the area in Eastern Kansas. For the Tri-State area,
a few outer bands of wrap around precipitation could move over,
but the heavier rain will likely stay east of the area. Cloudy
skies are forecast with lows in the 20s and 30s again.

Tomorrow, cloud cover and precipitation chances are forecast to
both fade during the day from west to east as the upper trough
continues to push east. For areas that see cloud cover clear
(mostly west of Highway 83), temperatures are forecast to warm
into the 60s during the afternoon. Winds are not forecast to
increase that much as a wave further north is also forecast to
push east, helping to keep most of the High Plains under low
pressure and a weaker pressure gradient.

Tomorrow night, skies are forecast to become clear with winds
around 5-10 mph. In spite of the lowering of the winds and clear
skies, the winds are forecast to be from the west and help keep
temperatures generally above freezing. If the winds are too
slow in becoming westerly and developing the downslope
component, locales west of Highway 27 would likely see freezing
temperatures again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Overview: Long range guidance continues to indicate that a
complex, amplified synoptic pattern (roughly characterized by
troughing over the western CONUS and ridging over the eastern
CONUS) will decrease in amplitude and transition to broad
cyclonic flow aloft early next week.. and that a more
progressive pattern will return by mid-late next week. Two
distinct jet branches, [1] a sinuous northern stream branch at
mid-latitudes and [2] a southern stream/subtropical branch
extending eastward across the southern Pacific and Mexico will
be present through the majority of the long term period. In such
a pattern, multibranched jet interactions often play a
significant role in synoptic pattern evolution. With this in
mind, forecast confidence is below average. Forecast confidence
typically decreases with range. Below average, in this context,
is intended to communicate a further reduction in confidence
associated with /inherent to/ increased pattern complexity..
e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off waves and multibranched
jet/wave interactions, among other factors.

Monday: Shortwave ridging / synoptic subsidence will prevail
over the Central Plains.. as a departing mid-latitude cyclone
lifts northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. Shortwave ridging
over the central Rockies and adjoining High Plains will be
supplanted by broad cyclonic flow aloft late Mon and Mon night
as robust shortwave energy moving ashore the Pacific Northwest
(Sun) tracks eastward across the northern Rockies (Mon) and
Dakotas (Mon night). Expect dry conditions and a warming trend,
with highs ranging from the mid 70`s to ~80F. Guidance indicates
that deep vertical mixing and modest tightening of the MSLP-850
mb height gradient on the eastern periphery of a developing lee
trough in CO will foster breezy (20-30 mph) SW winds and near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions over most, perhaps
all, of the Tri-State area Monday afternoon.

Tue-Sat: Guidance indicates a progressive synoptic pattern with
episodic northern/southern stream shortwaves over the CONUS
next week. Multibranched (northern/southern stream) jet
interactions may play a significant role in the evolution of
episodic shortwaves throughout this period. Below average
confidence in forecast specifics. Broadly speaking, expect above
average chances for precipitation and near-average
temperatures. `Near- average temperatures` may be somewhat
misleading, though. In a progressive synoptic pattern with
episodic shortwaves, considerable day-to-day fluctuations in
temperature and wind speed/direction are possible.. especially
in Spring.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 456 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both
terminals. The better low level moisture has currently stayed
west of the area, keeping ceilings above 4000ft. This is
expected to continue through the day, along with breaks in the
clouds allowing for clearing skies. There are low chances for
rain showers throughout the period. The relative best chance is
after 00Z, but chances are less than 20% and favor areas
generally south of the terminal. There is the possibility as the
system moves north tonight that a brief surge of moisture could
drop ceilings to around 1000-2000ft.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK