193
FXUS63 KGLD 100936
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
236 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance for light snow and rain on Saturday. Also a
  brief period of freezing drizzle and freezing rain could occur
  in the morning for counties near the Colorado border.

- Seasonable and dry for Sun-Tue.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast to return next
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 233 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

Current observations show clearing skies as the lower surface
pressure continues to move farther southeast from the area and the
upper trough beginning to slide east through the area. The clear
skies are forecast to continue through the day with slight ridging
aloft while winds stay from the west at 10-15 mph. With the
sunshine, temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 30`s for
most of the area. Those who saw an inch or two of snow from
yesterday`s system may struggle to reach freezing.

Tonight is forecast to be fairly similar to recent days with
initially clear skies this evening, and then increasing cloud cover
towards the end of the night as another trough nears the area from
the northwest. Another broad area of surface low pressure is
forecast to form ahead of the upper trough and move over the area.
Winds tonight should stay around 10 mph with the center of the broad
low pressure moving over the area.

Tomorrow, some chances for precipitation are expected again with the
surface low moving across the area during the morning along with the
upper trough pushing through. The main difference this time around
is that moisture near the surface is forecast to be lacking a bit
with the air column needing to saturate near the surface first.
Depending on how dry the near surface air gets, little to no
precipitation may occur at all. Conversely for counties along the
Colorado border, there is a chance that the dry air helps keep the
surface below freezing a bit longer with warmer air just above the
surface. This could allow for freezing drizzle or freezing rain to
develop, mainly between about 5am and 10am MT. Snow could also fall
if the warm air mixes out in the lower few thousand feet as some
guidance is suggesting. Accumulations in either case would be
limited with either a few hundredths of ice or few tenths of snow,
but the ice accumulations would be enough to cause travel problems
with slick roads. If it were snow, there could be some blowing snow,
but winds are forecast to be a little lower compared to yesterday
and any precipitation is forecast to transition to rain by the late
morning hours hours (roughly after 10 am MT). Cloud cover should
begin to lessen in coverage by the early afternoon hours and allow
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 30`s. As alluded to
earlier, winds should pick up to around 15-25 mph, but with gusts
only to 40-45 mph as the trough axis swinging over the area,
slightly weakening the winds in the lower few hundred millibars.

Tomorrow night, skies are forecast to clear slowly as the system
pushes off to the east. Temperatures are forecast to only drop into
the teens and twenties with limited cold air advection and winds
from the west at 10-15 mph keeping things mixed.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 152 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

Sunday through Tuesday, an upper-level low near the Great Lakes will
be extending a trough down to the Four Corners region, causing west-
southwesterly flow at 250mb. In the mid-levels, northwesterly flow
will persist with the stronger flow remaining to the northeast of
the CWA. This pattern will keep us cool and dry for the first half
of the week. Highs will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s with lows
slowly warming from the teens to lower 20s through Tuesday night.
Due to a lack of moisture in the lower levels, precipitation is very
unlikely.

Wednesday, a ridge extending from a high over the Gulf of Mexico
will push into the High Plains as a high over the Pacific northwest
enters the CONUS and will merge into the ridge, likely on Thursday.
This setup will allow a low-level high to form over the Southern
Plains, causing southwesterly flow over the CWA. This will greatly
warm our temperatures Wednesday onwards, likely into the 50s. There
is about a 15% chance that the low-level high will remain too far
south to bring us warmer weather. In this case, expect temperatures
to only warm into the 40s. Overnight temperatures will still be
cooling into the lower to mid 20s, due to clear skies leading to
efficient radiational cooling.

List of acronyms
mb - Millibar
kts - Knots
Z - Zulu time (UTC)
CWA - County Warning Area
CONUS - CONtiguous United States

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM MST Thu Jan 9 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK as high pressure
builds into the area, resulting in clearing skies and light
winds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024