641
FXUS63 KGLD 150534
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1134 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly winds will strengthen during the day on Wednesday,
  especially in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border areas
  (along/west of Hwy 25), where sustained winds at 25-35 mph and
  gusts to 45-55 mph are expected during the afternoon. A few
  showers/storms cannot be ruled-out over portions of eastern CO
  during the afternoon. Severe weather is presently not
  anticipated.

- Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop over
  portions of the area Thursday aft-eve, mainly in northwest KS
  and southwest NE. A brief severe storm capable of producing
  quarter size hail and/or 60 mph wind gusts is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1258 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Observations around the noon hour showed fog dissipating and
cloud cover beginning to break apart for counties along the
Colorado border. This should allow counties along and west of
Highway 83 to clear and have temperatures reach the 70s. The
rest of the area to the east may stay in the 60s with cloud
cover lingering until the late afternoon and evening hours. With
the skies clearing, there is the chance that some small amounts
of instability develop over Eastern Colorado and nearby
counties. With a weak convergence zone from the front, upslope
flow, and potentially another shot of mid- level moisture moving
through in the upper southwest flow, a storm or two could form
and move through western portions of the area. The storms should
be sub-severe if the form, with little instability to work
with. A wind gusts to 60-70 mph would be the main threat if the
storm did go severe with strong flow of 50 kts around or below
500mb.

Tonight, the upper trough is forecast to shift more east and
closer to the area, also shifting the surface low a bit more
east. This should cause the winds to remain elevated around
10-20 mph with the pressure gradient remaining setup over the
area. Skies are forecast to start partly cloud, but then become
mostly cloudy with more mid- level moisture trying to move over.
This could lead to a shower or two over Northwest Kansas, but
nothing widespread or heavy is expected at this time. Lows are
forecast to drop into the 50s.

Tomorrow, the upper trough is forecast to shift more east and
north over Utah. As it does so, the surface low is also forecast
to push more to the east and north while also deepening. As the
low deepens, it should tighten the pressure gradient and help
winds increase to around 20-35 mph with the stronger winds
favoring the western portions of the area. With the upper trough
tightening the height gradients, winds are forecast to
strengthen to 35-55 kts between 700- 500mb. If we are able to
mix out tomorrow, then some wind gusts to 60 mph are possible. A
potential inhibitor for this is the continued stream of
moisture from 850-500mb. While not spatially congruent, parts of
the air may be saturated enough to take advantage of the lift
provided by the surface low and the upper trough to form
showers/storms during the morning hours. If the showers and
storms move through, it may keep a capping inversion in place
over the western parts of the area and inhibit how much we can
mix. In this scenario, wind gusts would be more likely to cap
out around 50 mph, with 30-40 mph further east. Given that we
have been a bit more on the moist side, am currently leaning
towards this solution. This would also limit the blowing dust
threat as lapse rates and winds near the surface would be too
low to loft dust except near freshly plowed/loosened fields. If
we have clearer skies and no showers, concerns for blowing dust
would be higher as lapse rates near the surface would increase
along with surface wind speeds. That being said, the air might
over mix then and lead to more hazy skies with no cap on the
dust. The other concern is that if there are no early
showers/clouds, then the daytime heating in combination with the
surface convergence zone may allow for some storms to fire up
during the afternoon/evening. A severe storm may be possible
then with wind as the main threat, but large hail could also
occur. Highs for tomorrow should reach the 80s as there should
be breaks in the clouds and showers that allow for some sunshine
during the afternoon.

Tomorrow night, the surface low is forecast to still shift
slightly more to the northeast, but while also broadening. For
most of the area, this will keep winds elevated around 15-30
mph, but with gusts around 40 mph or less. Locales near the Tri-
State border may see winds go light if the center of the
surface low can move over and weaken the pressure gradient. A
mix of clouds and clear skies is forecast with some mid-level
moisture still swinging through the area. Lows are forecast to
be in the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Thursday, the upper trough is forecast to continue to lift
northeast with a broad surface low pressure and cold front
draped across the Plains and High Plains. This is forecast to
shift winds from out of the south to out of north during the day
while keeping speeds around 15-25 mph. The chances for stronger
winds look to be lower given a broader surface pressure
gradient and with the upper trough axis swinging through the
High Plains, weakening the upper level flow. That being said,
there should still be some pockets of 40 kts winds on the
leading edge of the trough which will allow for pockets of wind
gusts between 30-50 mph. On top of the winds, showers and storms
are expected as moisture builds up along the leading edge of
the front/trough as it pushes through the area. On top of the
moisture and surface forcing, winds above 500mb are forecast to
remain strong and provide diffluence to support storm
development. Instability remains forecast to be low with the
cooler air and multiple rounds of clouds and showers the prior
days which is keeping our severe chances low. However, 0-6km
shear around 40-60 kts and a storm motion that favors storms
moving along the frontal boundary could allow for one or two
strong thunderstorms that could produce hail to around an inch.
It also wouldn`t be impossible for one of the storms to mix down
some of the stronger winds and produce a wind gust around 60-70
mph. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low 80s ahead of
the front (towards Central Kansas), and cap out in the 70s
towards the Tri-State border.

Friday and Saturday, are forecast to remain upper level
troughing as the upper trough is forecast to positively tilt and
allow for a cut- off low/shortwave to linger upstream until
late Saturday. This is forecast to lead to a less active pattern
with lighter winds under a broad area of surface low pressure.
Temperatures should be around average with highs near 70 and
lows around 40. There could be a few showers that move through
with shortwaves, but current chances are 10% or less.

Sunday and into early next week is less clear as guidance is
split on whether another trough will quickly develop and push
through the Northern High Plains or if it will delay more into
the mid part of next week. In either case, Sunday brings about
the first chance at a freeze as the prior elongated trough
finishes swinging through and brings a colder air mass through.
Lows are forecast to be in the 30s with low 30s possible in
locales along and east of Highway 27. While guidance is
currently split, currently leaning towards average to slightly
above average temperatures as the pattern we have been in favors
some ridging after a trough and a recovery of temperatures.
When the next system moves in, we will likely see more strong
winds and another organized chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

GLD: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period.. with ceilings confined to cirrus at/above ~12,000 ft
AGL. S winds at ~15 knots will increase to 15-25 knots after
sunrise.. further increasing to 20-30 knots during the late
morning (by ~18Z) and 25-30 knots with gusts up to ~40 knots
during the afternoon.

MCK: At 05Z, the McCook terminal was situated on the far
southern periphery of an expansive area of fog/stratus in
Nebraska. While sub-VFR conditions assoc/w fog may periodically
affect the McCook terminal at the beginning of the TAF period,
current and recent runs of the HRRR suggest that fog/stratus
will gradually shift north toward the I-80 corridor ~06-12Z
Wed.. that VFR conditions are apt to prevail by sunrise.. and
that VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the remainder
of the TAF period, with ceilings confined to cirrus at/above
~12,000 ft AGL. ESE-SE winds at 7-12 knots will veer to the S
and increase to 10-20 knots after sunrise.. further increasing
to 15-25 knots during the late morning (by ~18Z) and 20-30 knots
with gusts to ~35 knots during the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent