531
FXUS63 KGLD 102307
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
407 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue.

- Warm temperatures return for one day only! Record highs
  possible Thursday.

- Breezy conditions expected Thursday afternoon, mainly in near
  the Tri-State border.

- Fog and freezing fog possible Friday/Saturday morning, but
  confidence is low to moderate.

- Mild temperatures in the 50s to 60s return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Today, an 850 mb high pressure system is moving across the
southern CONUS. This is extending a ridge over the CWA, leading to
weaker winds throughout most of the day Wednesday. This has also
helped clear out the sky, allowing temperatures to warm to around
50. Around 21-00Z this evening, the first impacts of our next
shortwave trough will start pushing into the western CWA. Surface
pressure rises look to be around 0.5-1 mb per hour, leading to winds
briefly picking up. We could see a few gusts around 25-30 kts in
eastern Colorado before the sunsets. Like most days, once the sun
sets, the nocturnal inversion will set in and winds will weaken
quickly.

This evening into the night, the bulk of our next shortwave trough
will push the ridge out of the area to the east. Moisture is
lacking, so PoPs are effectively 0. Temperatures are forecast to
cool into the mid 30s tonight. However, if the winds remain stronger
throughout the night, the boundary layer will remain mixed and lows
will only cool into the upper 30s to near 40.

Thursday morning, another weak ridge will briefly move in from the
southwest and soon be replaced with zonal flow from the Rockies.
Mild WAA, clearing skies, and downsloping flow will allow
temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday. We
are looking at some record high temperatures. For more
information, see the climate section below. These temperatures
and no additional moisture will push minimum RH values down to
near 20% in eastern Colorado. Winds are a bit of a concern,
mainly in Yuma county. With such warm temperatures expected,
winds are forecast to mix very well, allowing northwesterly
gusts of ~30 kts to mix down. There is a 40-50% chance gusts
around 40-45 kts will occur in northern Yuma county. With the
~30 kts gusts, there`s a 15% chance of blowing dust reducing
visibility under a mile. If the stronger winds pan out, the
potential for blowing dust increases to around 75%. Main timing
for the winds and any associated impacts will be 18-23Z.

Sunset will once again bring in an inversion, which will weaken the
winds quickly. Temperatures overnight will cool to around 30 across
the area, with the northwestern CWA being the coolest, near 28
degrees. By Friday morning, there is a 15-25% chance of patchy
fog/freezing fog in the northeastern CWA. We`re expecting a high
pressure system to move in from the west and bring in cooler
temperatures. If the high takes a slightly northern path, more
northeasterly flow will occur. This will lead to stronger cooling
and likely saturating, leading to fog. If the high takes a slightly
southern path, more northern flow will occur and fog will likely not
form.

During the day Friday, the high will move across the CWA. This will
once again help the sky remain mostly clear and allow temperatures
to warm into the 40s and low 50s. Depending on how quickly the high
moves over the CWA, temperatures could flex about 5 degrees either
way. A slower high would keep temperatures cooler as the CAA would
persist longer into the day. A faster high could bring in slightly
warmer southerly flow during the midday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Friday night and into Saturday morning, the area is forecast to be
under northwest flow aloft with winds from the southeast near the
surface. This is forecast to keep some low level moisture over the
area. With temperatures forecast to lower into the 20s and 30s due
to the cold air mass in place, freezing fog and drizzle remains a
concern. The saving grace is that low pressure is forecast to
develop along the Front Range and may shift winds to be more
south/southwesterly and keep the moisture out of the area. So we
have nothing in the forecast for now, but do be cautious if you are
traveling late Friday and into early Saturday.

For the rest of the weekend, an upper trough is forecast to dig into
the Plains and the Ohio River Valley. The ensemble means and
deterministic guidance favors the trough moving more into the
Eastern Plains, which would bring the cooler air mass through the
far eastern portions of the area. This could cause these areas to
see highs in the 30s, while the rest of the area to the west is in
the 40s and 50s. However, ensemble spreads still show the
possibility of a the trough digging further west and south. In this
case, the entire area would see highs in the 30s and maybe low 40s.
Precipitation chances are low due to an overall lack of saturation.
However, fog and drizzle chances could linger if the surface low
along the Front Range persists and keeps the southeasterly flow.
Lows are forecast to be in the teens and 20s.

Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be a bit warmer as upper
ridging or split flow are forecast for the area. Within that, some
small waves may allow for some weak fronts to move through and
increase winds a bit. Gusts around 20-30 mph are possible, but
nothing hazardous at this time. Will need to watch for some briefly
critical fire weather conditions as drier air is forecast to take
hold of the area along with warmer temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
A few 70s may be possible on Tuesday depending on how the smaller
disturbances move through. With the drier air, precipitation is
unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 402 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites.
Cloud cover should remain above 8000ft with maybe some virga
during the first few hours at KMCK. Winds near the surface are
forecast to generally be from the southwest around 10 kts
through about 15-18Z. There is still the possibility that winds
around 500-1000ft reach 30-50 kts through 12Z, but the current
forecast continues to suggest that the change in speed won`t be
enough for low level wind shear. Chance in low level wind shear
developing remains around 20%. Tomorrow afternoon, winds are
forecast to shift more to out of the west/northwest with speeds
around 15 kts and a few gusts to 20-25 kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 115 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Thursday, we will be getting close to setting some high
temperature records across the area.

Location          Old Record  Year   Forecast High
Hill City, KS     72          1939   70
McCook, NE        66          2004   67
Burlington, CO    70          2004   69
Goodland, KS      77          1939   70

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
CLIMATE...CA