024
FXUS63 KGLD 010844
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
244 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather returns Monday behind a warm front with highs
  returning to the low 100s east of the Colorado border.

- Storm and severe weather chances are forecast each day through
  Wednesday. Storms are favored during the afternoon and evening
  hours. Monday and Tuesday have slightly lower severe chances
  than Wednesday. Large hail and strong wind gusts are forecast
  to be the main threats.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Active weather is forecast for today and tomorrow.

The early morning hours remain active with continued moisture
advection from the southeast and the front/low pressure system over
Colorado. The line of storms over Eastern Colorado should continue
to move east/northeast with MUCAPE remaining consistent around 2000
J/KG. However, the chances for stronger storms are lowering as
effective shear continues to slowly decrease. Heavy rain, small
hail, and wind gusts generally up to 55 mph are forecast through the
remainder of the overnight hours.

A little after sunrise, the storms either should have moved east of
the area or dissipated. Cloud cover is forecast to slowly burn off
through the morning while the upper trough over the Rockies moves
closer to the area, deepening the surface low and shifting winds to
out of the southwest. With southwesterly winds, drier and warmer air
is forecast to advect into the area. With this, temperatures should
warm into the lower 100`s across much of the area with dewpoints
falling into the 50`s across the Western half of the area. The
eastern half of the area with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60`s and
highs in the 100`s is forecast to see heat indices climb to near
105 degrees. The Heat Advisory remains in effect.

During the afternoon hours, the low should deepen enough along with
an advancing front from the northwest to create a surface
convergence zone across the area. The current favored areas is just
east of a Goodland to McCook line and along the higher terrain in
far western portions of the area. Storms are forecast to develop
along these zones around 2-4pm MT and move east. With the drier air
that is forecast to move in, most of the area along and west of
Highway 27 would be unlikely to see severe weather short of a wind
gust to 65 mph as forecast soundings suggest CAPE around 1000 J/KG
or less. For the rest of the area, higher dewpoints would lead to
greater instability and greater chances for stronger storms and
severe weather. Even with the greater instability (CAPE around 2000
J/KG or higher), mid level lapse rates are still forecast to be
around 7.5 or less which would lower the risk for large hail.
Another factor would be the downshear vector of 55kts+ which
generally hinders storms from becoming well developed. However, any
initial supercells that develop could produce hail to two inches
with the instability and effective shear around 45 kts. The tornado
threat looks to be fairly low with little directional shear forecast
in the lowest km or two. The faster storm motions would also hinder
tornadoes except for quick spinups. With the winds, gusts to 70 mph
seem reasonable for now with 60 kts winds forecast between the 500mb-
300mb layer and downshear vectors also near 60kts.

Once the main round moves off to the east, the severe chances should
diminish to near zero, though shower and storm chances may linger
overnight (especially if the storms help dewpoints reach back into
the mid 60`s or higher). With clouds and showers over most of the
area, lows are forecast to cool only into the 60`s and 70`s.

For tomorrow, a little cooler of a day is forecast with the upper
trough axis swinging through the area and a mix of clouds and sun
over the area. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80`s
and low 90`s. The surface low pressure and front is forecast to
linger just south of the area. Current forecast keep it too far
south for any storm development short of an isolated storm or two
from the higher terrain in Colorado. If the system shifts further
north into the southern part of the area, our storm chances would
increase and we would have a marginal risk for severe storms. Severe
storm chances would remain limited with lower instability forecast
as drier air is forecast to move in from the west. The overnight
hours would depend on if the system shifted north, but would likely
see cloudy skies from nearby storm anvils slowly clear out through
the night and allow lows to drop into the 50`s and 60`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Wednesday...there is medium confidence in some lingering
morning showers/possible thunderstorms generally south of the
interstate in the morning before a fairly organized weather system
moves the western 1/2 or so of the forecast area in the afternoon,
sparking a 20%-50% chance for strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms continue moving east overnight
with pops in the 40%-60% range with a continued threat for severe
weather. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to
lower 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Thursday...an upper level low pressure area is forecast to move east-
southeast across the northern and central plains with the flow aloft
from the west-northwest. It appears that we`ll have a weather system
move through during the overnight hours from the northwest with 20%-
40% chances for thunderstorms. A few models show a rather dry 850-
500mb layer and no qpf so later forecasts may back off on overnight
precipitation chances.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower 80s to around 90 with low temperatures in the lower 50s to
lower 60s.

Friday...the forecast area should be under northwest flow aloft with
some ridging moving on to the west coast. Although we currently have
20% chances for thunderstorms across the entire area during the
night, the better chance of that could be across the southwest 1/3-
1/2 of the area as weather systems move off the Colorado front
range, moving toward the southeast. High temperatures are forecast
to be in the lower to middle 80s with low temperatures in the middle
50s to lower 60s.

Saturday and Sunday...currently, we have a 20% chance for overnight
thunderstorms. They could be ongoing closer to mid to late afternoon
as a weather system moves through from the northwest. High
temperatures are currently forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower
90s Saturday with 90 to 95 Sunday. Low temperatures in the middle
50s to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

IFR conditions will continue off and on at both TAF sites
through the period. Ceilings will be the main factor, fog will
sporadically impact the sites, too. The line of showers, and
storms to the south of KGLD, are progressing to the east and
dropping the ceilings to LIFR. Ceilings look to prevail into the
mid-morning and then lift before another round of showers and
storms move in from the northwest in the mid-day. As the storms
move in, winds will become lighter and variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ003-004-015-016.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...CA