820
FXUS63 KGLD 040447
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are forecast to
  develop along and south of Highway 36 this afternoon. Large
  to very large hail and damaging winds will be the main
  hazards.

- Isolated strong to severe storms still remain possible Monday
  and Tuesday with hail the main threat at this time.

- Gradual warm up through the week with generally drier
  conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

This afternoon and evening, a broad area of low pressure is forecast
to remain situated across the area in roughly a southwest to
northeast orientation. With this, the winds should remain from the
north for Eastern Colorado and areas near the Tri-State border while
winds across the rest of the area are east and south. With this, a
surface convergence boundary should set up around I-70 and help
develop some storms this afternoon around 2pm. That being said, it
looks like a low to mid-level boundary is sliding south around
Southwestern Nebraska. Satellite imagery shows a line of clouds
moving south in this area with surface observations keeping winds
from the south. Radar is showing showers and storms developing along
this. While they currently aren`t long live or strong, this line
could interfere with the forecast.

The current forecast is for the instability to increase across the
area as the day goes on, allowing a few strong to severe storms to
develop along the surface low convergence zone. With CAPE around
3000 J/KG and mid level lapse rates around 8 C/km, large to very
large hail is the main threat. The main hindrance for hail looks to
be effective shear around 30 kts, which would favor pulsing or
clustering storms. Wind gusts around 60 to 70 mph are also possible
as storms lower back down. As mentioned above, will be watching that
northern convergence zone as it may be able to fire up additional
storms for northern portions of the area, similar to what it is
doing around the noon hour. The hazards would be the same with these
storms.

For the evening, any initial storms that form this afternoon should
either dissipate (due to low shear) or move south out of the area.
We will then need to watch for storms from the northwest that are
forecast to develop along the higher terrain. That being said,
instability is forecast to lower around sunrise and effective shear
remain low which should cause most to dissipate before they reach
the area. That being said, storm outflows might allow for additional
development and help keep the wind threat going through the evening
and early overnight hours.

Overall storm coverage should remain isolated to scattered due to
weak forcing. Greater coverage is more likely if multiple outflow
boundaries begin to move across the area.

Late tonight, any lingering storms should dissipate and allow for
mostly clear skies across the area. However, some low clouds and fog
could develop across the eastern half of the area as higher pressure
remains to the east, keeping winds generally from the east. With the
slight upslope flow and forecast moisture advection, it could be
another dreary morning for the eastern half of the area.

Tomorrow, the upper ridge over the southwest is forecast to begin
slowly expand towards the Plains and amplifying. With it, the area
is forecast to be a bit warmer around 90 along with mostly sunny
skies. Winds are forecast to become stronger as a low develops along
the Front Range with the higher surface pressure east of the area.
Speeds could reach 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph, especially for
western portions of the area.

There is another chance for storms during the afternoon and evening
hours, though the chances are a little more conditional. It will
depend on if storms can form along the higher terrain, or if a
subtle convergence boundary can form along the edge of the low
pressure. If storms form, they would have the same potential hazards
as today. The current forecast continue to favor more isolated
storms, especially with some upper subsidence trying to setup over
the area. Any storms that form should end before midnight.

Tomorrow night, skies are forecast to slowly clear with low
temperatures dropping towards the lower 60s. Winds are forecast to
maybe be a little lower, but remain around 10 to 20 mph with the
pressure gradient remaining fairly tight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Tuesday-Thursday, the upper ridge over the southwest is forecast to
expand more into the South-Central High Plains and over the area.
With the expanding ridge, temperatures are forecast to warm above
average again into the mid-upper 90s and 100s. The hottest day is
currently forecast to be Thursday, with the possibility of heat
index values reaching the 100s. Will keep an eye out for the
potential for heat advisory criteria. Storm chances linger, but
should be fairly low due to the broad upper subsidence. That being
said, the area is forecast to be on the upper part of the ridge,
which means shortwaves could influence the area during the
afternoon/evening hours and provide some forcing for greater storm
development. Finally, the other conditions to keep an eye on is the
potential for some critical fire weather conditions. As we get
warmer and drier, there is the possibility that wind gusts could
reach 30 mph while RH is dropping into the teens (mainly for
counties along the Colorado border).

Friday-Sunday, the upper ridge is forecast to be flattened and
retreat more to the southwest as some upper troughs try and swing
through the Northern Plains. If the troughs don`t move in fast
enough, Friday could be another day with temperatures and heat index
values in the 100s. Otherwise, temperatures should cool back to the
80s and 90s, with increased chances for storms due to the additional
forcing moving through the area.

Severe weather will remain possible through the week. Severe chances
should also be higher this upcoming weekend with the potential
systems sweeping through the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Remain concerned about the potential for stratus/fog early Mon
AM (10-14z), especially at KMCK where winds have consistently
been out of the east this evening (upslope flow more favorable
for stratus development), compared to KGLD where winds have been
more southerly (less favorable for stratus). Included a tempo
group for LIFR ceilings and IFR vis at KMCK from 10-14z. Can`t
rule out similar conditions at KGLD, but was not confident
enough to include in the TAF. Southeasterly winds are expected
through the day Monday, sustained around 10-15 kts. Scattered
storms will develop northwest of the area Monday afternoon, but
could track southeast and reach the terminals towards the end
of the period (03-06z Tues). Confidence in where exactly these
storms track is low, but there was enough of a model signal to
introduce a PROB30 TSRA into both TAFs.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Erwin