752
FXUS63 KGLD 011645
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions along and west of
  Highway 27 today.

- Record and near record high temperatures for parts of the area
  Wednesday. Monthly record highs possible too.

- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions
  Thursday across Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado.

- No rainfall for the foreseeable future.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Today-tonight...a 1030mb surface high over the forecast area this
morning will steadily move east with low pressure developing along
the lee of the rockies. This pattern will favor breezy to windy
southerly winds across far eastern Colorado today with very light
winds across Norton and Graham counties. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the 70 to 75 degree range. Low temperatures
tonight are forecast to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s along the
Republican river valley as well as far southwest Cheyenne county
Colorado with middle 40s across the rest of the area. I wouldnt be
surprised if temperatures are a few degrees lower from McCook to
Gove and points east where proximity to the surface high, lower
dewpoints and lighter winds exist. This is also the trend of the
MET/MAV guidance numbers.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...record and near record heat returns to
the area (see CLIMATE section below) with NAM/GFS 850mb temperatures
rising 20-25F compared to Tuesday. A blend of the better performing
temperature guidance over the past week supports highs in the upper
80s to middle 90s, hottest along the vicinity of Highway 27. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Thursday-Thursday night...a cold front moves through the area during
the day, bringing with it gusty northeast winds across far eastern
Colorado. NBM forecast highs in the middle 70s to middle 80s seem
reasonable when compared to the better performing high temperature
guidance over the past 7 days and NAM/GFS 850mb temperatures from
the past few days. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower
40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Upper ridge remains the dominant upper feature through the long term
period. No precipitation is expected and temperatures will be above
normal. A cold front will move through Saturday night.
Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm into the lower 90s with
low relative humidity Saturday afternoon, but winds are forecast to
be light, mitigating any fire weather concerns for the time being.
Cooler air filters in on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Temperatures warm slightly on Monday with highs in the low to
mid 80s and another afternoon of low humidity but relatively light
winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1041 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions remain forecasted for each terminal. Winds will
slowly become more southerly through the day as a surface high
moves off to the east. KGLD may see some gusts up to 20 knots
this afternoon due to diurnal mixing. Winds will become more SSW
overnight around 09-12 knots before becoming westerly towards
the end of the TAF period as the next wind shift approaches the
area. A LLJ is forecast to develop overnight which may lead to
some LLWS concerns for each terminal. Guidance is differing on
the strength of the jet so opted to leave out for now, future
shifts may need to monitor this potential however.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

The Fire Weather Watch that was in effect across parts of far
eastern Colorado today has been cancelled. Although southerly
winds will gust up to 35 mph, relative humidity values will fall
just short of the 15% threshold. Near critical fire weather
conditions are forecast for those along and west of Highway 27
today.

Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions
are anticipated Thursday afternoon across Cheyenne and Kit
Carson counties in Colorado.

From Saturday through Monday, relative humidity values in the
single digits, teens to around 20% are forecast for much of the
area with no chance for rainfall. Surface winds are currently
forecast to remain below thresholds needed for a fire weather
highlight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Record/near record high temperatures are forecast for the
following locations Wednesday, October 2...

Goodland.....93 degrees set back in 1953
Burlington...92 degrees set back in 1997
Colby........93 degrees set back in 2006
Tribune......93 degrees set back in 2006

Monthly record high temperatures could be set at the following
locations Wednesday, October 2...

Goodland.....96 degrees set on 10/17/1926
Burlington...93 degrees set on 10/09/2020 and previous years
Tribune......95 degrees set on 10/06/2007 and previous years

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLIMATE...99