886
FXUS63 KGLD 170823
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
223 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread fog is occurring this morning, and a Dense Fog
  Advisory has been issued for portions of the area.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms persist into the
  weekend. Severe weather is possible with these storms.

- Highs in the 80s and 90s are expected through Saturday, with
  today being the warmest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas along and north of
U.S. 36 until late this morning. Visibility is forecast to drop to
1/4 or less, leading to hazardous driving conditions. There looks to
be a fairly sharp boundary of where the fog ends, which is a warm
front from a lee low in central Colorado. A few showers are also
expected to move northward this morning with the warm front, ending
around sunrise. With the combination of fog, stratus, showers, and
warm front, low temperatures look to remain in the low to mid 60s
for most of the CWA this morning.

After sunrise, as the low strengthens coming out of the Rockies and
the inversion burns off, we are expecting to see southerly winds
sustained in the 15-20 kts range with gusts 25-35 kts range. This
will draw in ample WAA. Locations along and west of KS 25 may have
some compressional warming from a slight southwesterly component.
This will work to push out any lingering stratus and fog by noon.
Additionally, these factors will warm temperatures into the 90s for
most of the area, and areas along and southeast of a line from Mingo
to Tribune have a 40% chance of exceeding 95 degrees.

With the strong WAA and potential for gusts around the 35 kts mark,
there is a 15% chance for blowing dust today. 0-2 km lapse rates
will be well above 9.5 C/km for locations that warm to around 92 or
higher, which is most of northwest Kansas. However, 2-2.5 km lapse
rates also being fairly high and mixing heights being over 5,000
feet, it`s likely that any lofted dust will create hazy skies and
worsen air quality, versus impact visibilities. Also, soil moisture
in the southern CWA is largely above 10%, potentially minimizing the
blowing dust source regions.

Around 22-01Z, the 850 mb low, under the 500 mb trough axis, will be
moving across northeastern Colorado. This will cause storms to form
over this area, but there is notable disagreement for location of
the storms. There is 40% confidence that a group of storms will form
in northeastern Colorado and travel northeast, missing the CWA
altogether. There is a 35% chance that this cluster of storms
expands as far southeast as St. Francis, but quickly moves northeast
out of the area. This has a 10% chance of bringing in storms that
produce winds up to 60 MPH, or if storms begin training over the
same location, a flooding risk. There is a 25% chance that both the
northeastern Colorado cluster impacts the area with the same
threats, as well as another cluster of storms that forms near Lamar,
CO and moves to the northeast off of another, weaker lee low. The
threats for the southern cluster would mainly be flooding, but a
microburst could produce winds nearing 60 MPH. Convection should be
exiting the CWA by 6Z.

The northwestern CWA has a 30% chance at seeing some patchy fog or
stratus early Friday morning, but the rest of the CWA should remain
free of low clouds and fog. Temperatures are forecast to be about 2-
4 degrees warmer than this morning.

Friday, we expect to see a stationary front set up in the
southeastern CWA, a remnant of the Thursday night convection and
low. This will lead to a a notable temperature and wind gradient
around this boundary. To the southeast of the front, temperatures
will likely warm into the mid 90s with southwesterly winds gusting
around 25-30 kts. To the northwest of the front, temperatures will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s, but winds will favor a northerly
direction and be fairly light. Exact location of where the front
will stall is still an unknown, but it looks to favor an area around
Hill City to Tribune.

Wherever this boundary sets up, we could see some afternoon and
evening convection fire off of it. Shear along the boundary appears
to be fairly weak with inverted-V sounding, making the most likely
threat a microburst.

However, the primary threat for severe weather will be coming from a
quick moving Colorado lee low, stemming from another shortwave
trough at 500 mb from a northwest CONUS low. Contrary to what the
SPC Day 2 outlook shows, there is a notable risk of severe weather
for the majority of the CWA. The low and associated cold front look
to start firing off storms west of the CWA around 21-23Z and push
into the CWA within a couple hours. All hazards are possible with
these storms, especially if the convection forms into a QLCS, like
the 0Z NAMNest shows. Gusts up to 75 MPH, 1.5 inch hail, a brief
tornado, and flash flooding would be the main threats. However, if
it is more disorganized as the 6Z HRRR shows, microbursts up around
65-70 MPH, 1 inch hail, and localized flooding would be the primary
threats. The convective threat would likely persist until around 6-
9Z. Overnight lows would range from the mid 50s to upper 60s,
depending on how early the cold front moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Synoptically, on Sunday morning an upper level trough looks to begin
moving through the Tri-State Area, potentially with an associated
weak jet streak. Come Monday, the trough begins to move eastward and
out of the area. Our upper level flow should then return to come
from the west until around Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

High temperatures for the long term look to remain cooler than
previous days, with highs mainly in the 70s. The warmest day of the
period looks to be Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
for the majority of the CWA. Winds are forecast to be light and
variable throughout the late weekend into the early work week.
During this period, there are chances for the majority of the
area to see typical afternoon showers/storms. Sunday currently
looks to have the greatest chance of seeing precipitation. NBM
guidance shows around a 30-60% chance of exceeding 0.1 inches of
precip from the early morning, and decreasing in the afternoon.
Monday through Wednesday the Probability of Precipitation is
around 20-40% each afternoon. Guidance indicates lower values of
CAPE and moderate shear, which would lean more towards showers
than severe storms.

Beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, uncertainty in the
forecast begins to increase. For Tuesday night, guidance is
hinting at troughing in the Western CONUS. By Wednesday morning,
an upper level ridge is expected to be located over the
Southern US / Gulf region, with signs of a weak trough moving
through the Northern Plains. The primary uncertainty lies in how
strong the high will be, where its center will locate, and
whether the weak trough to the west moves quickly, slowly, or
remains nearly stationary. Guidance indicates the center of the
ridge could be as far north as the AR/MO/OK border or as far
south as the Gulf. Certain models show the trough sweeping
through in a single day, while others keep it near stationary
over the AZ/CA/NV border. The exact locations of the ridge and
trough will impact our precipitation chances for Wednesday. It
will be interesting to see how guidance handles this upper level
pattern uncertainty as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

KMCK is expected to see minimum ceilings and visibilities this
morning, likely between 8-14Z before conditions rapidly improve
by 16-18Z. KGLD looks to remain clear of the worst conditions,
but some showers and patchy fog may drop conditions to MVFR.
After 15-17Z, winds will start gusting into the 25-35 kts
range, stronger at KGLD. A round of storms may impact KMCK and
KGLD after 0Z Friday, but largely look to remain to the
northwest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ001>004-
     016.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ090.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...CA