395
FXUS63 KGLD 181051
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
451 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are forecast to remain warm with highs in the
  90s through much of the work week. We may see a cool down next
  weekend.

- There is a chance for more widespread storms Monday afternoon
  and evening. A few storms may become severe with damaging
  winds, large hail and blowing dust all possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

A weak shortwave is currently moving off of the Rockies which may
lead to a slim chance (around 5%) of some showers and storms across
Yuma county through around sunrise this morning, other that clear
skies remain forecast across the area. At the surface, a low
pressure system is seen developing and expanding towards the
Kansas/Colorado state line resulting in light and variable winds
across the area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy
radiational fog develop across the area around 11-14Z due to
the low 60 dew points in place, clear skies and light winds but
currently any fog potential signal is far to low to confidently
add in fog wording into the forecast. A limiting factor to this
potential is that winds look to turn more westerly due to the
progression of the low around this time.

As for the remainder of the day; ridging is forecast to amplify
across the area leading to another warm day with highs in the 90s.
Winds are forecast to become southeasterly through the day becoming
a little breezy by the afternoon with sustained winds around 15 mph
and gusts around 25 mph. The main focus for the day will be on
thunderstorm potential for this afternoon and through the evening
hours. Overall forcing will be weak but present across the area with
another low pressure system in place across eastern Colorado leading
to a surface convergence boundary which will be the focus for storms
to develop. Storms look to form around 1-2pm MT just west of the
forecast area before propagating into Yuma and Kit Carson
county shortly after formation. MUCAPE around 1500 j/kg and
effective shear of 25-35 knots looks to promote some storm
organization; including brief supercell potential initially but
messy hodographs leads to me to think that storms will grow
upscale driven by outflows and move to the east towards the
Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska state lines. Initially hail to golf
ball size would be possible before clustering together promoting
a wind threat with gusts around 65-70 mph. As the storms
cluster together there does appear to be some blowing dust
threat as well due to dry 0-10cm soil moisture according to
current NASASPORT data, with the exception being Yuma county who
saw the most rainfall Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Mixing heights also lower the further to the east they move
which if the current forecast remains on track would bring them
to the Tri- State border area around 5-7pm MT. A caveat which
would limit blowing dust threat would be if additional storms
can form out ahead of the main cluster whether it being from
reaching convective temperatures or other subtle convergence
boundaries in the area. Instability and shear increases the
further to the east so do think that the cluster will survive
and continue to trek at least across the entire northern portion
of the forecast area through the evening. However, there is some
concern of outflow getting to far out of the storms and
therefore weakening them which would end any severe threat. At
this time I would give this a 35% chance of occurring which is
limiting how I give the rain chances in the forecast currently.

Additional redevelopment is possible behind the main cluster as
well as mid level moisture remains in place but this activity
at this time does appear to be severe. Depending on the coverage
of the potential redevelopment some and/or stratus potential
appears to be possible starting after 06Z before some drier air
moves into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Tue-Fri continue to be forecast to be fairly hot with the upper
ridge amplified over the Rocky Mountains. Daily high
temperatures are forecast to be in the 90s with mostly sunny
skies each day. Winds are forecast to be fairly light as the
flow through much of the air column is expected to be weak.
Winds are forecast to generally remain below 20 mph. There are
still small chances for storms each day, but generally around or
below 15% as the amplified ridge is forecast to keep most of
the shortwaves north of the area. The chances for storms stem
from us keeping dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, with no signs of a
drier air mass at this time.

Going into the weekend, an upper trough is forecast to move
through the Plains and Great Lakes region around Fri/Sat.
There`s still plenty of variability in how much it extends into
the Plains, but in almost all scenarios it should push a cold
front through the area. When the front moves through, the area
will have a good chance for showers and storms, likely Friday
based on the current guidance. Once the front passes, we could
have a couple of days with high temperatures in the 80s and
maybe some 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 445 AM
MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions are currently forecast for each terminal. Given
the clear skies and light winds I can`t completely rule out some
brief reduction in visibility due to radiational fog between 12
and 14Z. Winds will slowly become more easterly throughout the
day as a surface low passes across the area. Continuing to watch
the potential for strong to possibly severe storms for each
terminal this evening. Storms may remain north of the GLD
terminal so will maintain the PROB30; as for MCK do have some
concern that storms will gust out and therefore not impact the
terminal so also will leave as PROB30. Some fog/stratus may
develop towards the end of the period for each terminal but will
be dependent on how storm chances evolve later today.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Trigg