439
FXUS63 KGLD 120716
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
116 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds are forecast to gust up to 35 mph through this evening
  as a cold front moves across the Tri-State area.

- Some showers are possible tonight primarily along and north of
  I-70. Overall chances are around 15-20%.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through next week with
  highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. May see breezy winds again
  around mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

With the upper trough beginning to push across the Rockies, the
surface low and a cold front will begin to move over the Tri-State
area beginning around mid-morning to the early afternoon hours. With
the frontal passage we will see another day of breezy conditions
across the area with northwesterly to northerly wind gusts to 35 mph
possible behind the front through sunset. Overnight, winds are
expected to decrease to 5-15 mph out of the northeast. The area
should be clear to mostly clear through the afternoon with an
increase in cloud cover during the evening and overnight hours when
there is also a slight chance for showers (less than 20%) along and
north of I-70. Little to no accumulation is expected given the
amount of dry air near the surface. With the current track of the
cold front, high temperatures are expected to be in the 70s to mid
80s today. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the 40s to mid 50s
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The beginning of the week still has the area in southwest flow
aloft with a trough deepening and reforming over the Western
United States while a ridge tries to build over the Southern
United States and Gulf of America. With this pattern, the area
should see seasonable conditions with highs in the 60s on Monday
and 70s on Tuesday. There is a chance for a few showers late in
the day on Monday as southerly/southeasterly flow is forecast
in the lower levels which should bring some more moisture into
the area. We could see a better chances for storms if we get
accompanying mid-level moisture, as broad troughing aloft and
higher pressure near the surface will be unlikely to help and
limit us to showers.

Around Wednesday/Thursday, the upper trough over the west is
forecast to push east and begin to move the ridge off to the
east. Wednesday will likely see highs in the 80s due to the
ridge amplifying before being pushed, unless the lower
probability scenario of the trough moving quickly east happens.
As the trough pushes east, another low pressure system/front
will push in from the west. This will lead to a similar scenario
as this weekend with increased winds including the potential
for gusts around 50mph and a few chances for rain. Temperatures
should also cool going into the end of the week. The uncertainty
lies in the timing of the system. While most push the trough
ahead and allow for the timing listed above, there are a few
members that delay passage of the front until late Thursday. If
that is the case, then Thursday would likely see highs in the
80s as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated over the KGLD and KMCK terminals
through the 06Z TAF period. Mostly clear to clear conditions are
anticipated through roughly 02-04Z over the terminals before we
begin to see an increase to FEW at the end of the period. As a
cold front progresses across the High Plains, wind are expected
to shift from the south/souht-southwest to the northwest around
14-16Z over both terminals and out of the north between 21-23Z.
Current breezy conditions with gusts of 25-35 kts will decrease
over the terminals by 10Z this morning and return with gusts of
25-30 kts possible behind the frontal passage. During the late
evening hours after 03Z, winds should become more northeasterly
and decrease to ~5-10 kts over the terminals.

In addition to the breezy surface winds, the KMCK terminal will
experience LLWS around 200 ft out of the south-southwest at
45-50 kts through ~10Z due to a low-level jet moving over the
area.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK