435
FXUS63 KGLD 041838
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1238 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few light rain and snow showers tonight. Cool tomorrow with
  highs generally in the 40s and lows around 20.

- Dry, warming trend expected to start Sunday and last through
  most of the next workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Observations continue to show a broad upper trough over the Rocky
Mountains with a broad area of low pressure to the south. The upper
trough is shifting east and forecast to move over the area during
the next 36 hours. Given how amplified it is, the better forcing and
lower pressure is forecast to stay well south of the area for the
most part. The slight exception is for today as a weak low center is
pulled northeast through the Southern Plains as the main trough axis
in the north swing through the Northern Plains. This is currently
providing a surface convergence zone from Northwestern Norton
county, down to Southern Wichita county. As the pressure lowers a
bit closer to the area, additional showers are forecast to develop
along this zone during the afternoon, and then shift south as
everything moves southeast. Additional rainfall around 0.05-0.25" is
likely for locales along and east of Highway 25. Some areas may
receive closer to half or three-quarters of an inch the slower the
convergence zone shifts south. The precipitation should stay as rain
through the afternoon with temperatures and dewpoints in the 40s.

This evening, winds are forecast to strengthen with the increasing
pressure gradient between the lower pressure sliding east, and the
higher pressure trying to move in with the northern trough axis
swinging through. Winds will likely increase to around 20-25 mph
with gusts around 35-40 mph. Some rain and snow will likely fall
early in the evening for the eastern half of the area, but
accumulations should become minimal as the low moves further away.
With this, the chance for hazardous blowing snow has decreased to
less than 5%. As the colder air moves in from the northwest, drier
air is also forecast to move in and should begin to clear some of
the cloud cover for northern part of the area. Between the cold air
advection and clearing skies, temperatures will likely drop to
around 20 for locales north of Highway 36. Locales to the south are
more likely to stay in the mid 20s to the 30s.

Tomorrow, skies should slowly clear through the day as the surface
high pressure moves more into the area. That being said, the upper
trough moving near and over the area may help move some mid-level
moisture into parts of the area and keep cloud cover from I-70 and
south. Highs are forecast to generally warm into the 40s. Winds are
forecast to still be around 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph with
the center of the high pressure forecast to not move over until late
in the day. Tomorrow night, skies should clear and winds lighten.
With these conditions, temperatures are likely to cool to near
dewpoint in the teens and low twenties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Sunday morning, the upper-level trough axis will continue exiting
the area as a ridge builds in from the west. This will start a dry,
warming trend through the rest of the long-term. Sunday looks to
only warm into the upper 50s, but by Tuesday, we should be seeing
temperatures warming back into the 70s. Wednesday and Thursday,
temperatures look to gradually warm even more, or remain steady-
state. Low 80s are possible Thursday and Friday, but we`re not
seeing any strong signs of southwesterly WAA. Low temperatures will
follow a similar trend; Sunday night, will cool to around 30F, by
Monday night, temperatures will only cool to around freezing, with
the rest of the period looks to remain above freezing.
Climatologically speaking, we are still likely to see freezing
temperatures return over the next few weeks as our average last
freeze dates are around the start of May.

There is a weak shortwave trough showing up Tuesday evening, leading
to a ~10% chance of rain. Current guidance shows fairly weak forcing
and moisture, and only over a narrow area which will likely occur
outside of the CWA. Locations along and north of U.S. 36 have the
best chance at seeing light showers Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours. No impacts are expected.

Thursday or Friday could see some near critical fire weather
conditions as the warm temperatures lower minimum RH values to the
upper teens. The NBM is showing northwesterly winds gusting around
20-23 kts in the afternoon. If a surface low moves across the area
and starts up an 850 mb LLJ from the southwest in the later half of
the week, temperatures could jump an extra 5-10 degrees, dropping RH
values into the low teens, and increasing winds by 5+ kts. This
would lead to a critical fire weather day. However, confidence for
this to occur is only around 15%.

List of acronyms
NBM - National Blend of Models
WAA - Warm Air Advection
PoP - Probability Of Precipitation
LLJ - Low Level Jet
RH  - Relative Humidity
F - Fahrenheit
mb - Millibar
kts - Knots
Z - Zulu time (UTC)
CWA - County Warning Area

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... Low ceilings around 1000ft are forecast to
continue for most of the period. With low level moisture
remaining in place, ceilings are not forecast to vary much until
after 06Z when the drier air from the northwest is forecast to
push through the area. Ceilings should then lift fairly quickly
once winds shift to out of the northwest with skies potentially
clearing by the end of the period. Keep an eye out for sporadic
rain/snow showers through 06Z as well, but chances have lowered
to generally 15% or less.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK