095
FXUS63 KGLD 300634
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1234 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy (20-35 mph) N to NE winds accompanying and following a
  dry cold frontal passage late Monday morning and early Monday
  afternoon will usher a cooler airmass into the region,
  granting a brief reprieve from the heat on Tuesday.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Dundy, Hitchcock and Red
  Willow counties on Monday. It`s important to note that
  dangerous fire behavior is possible anywhere in the Goodland
  CWA, should any fires be present/ongoing at the time of the
  frontal passage.

- A daily (or near-daily) potential for locally critical fire
  weather conditions may persist through the work week.

- No chance for rainfall the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Our current setup consists of a high pressure system over the
Rockies (the big bubble) and a low pressure system over the
eastern Midwest (remnants of hurricane Helene), both of which
are very slowly moving. The high is extending a ridge over the
CWA keeping us sheltered from waves causing rain or many clouds.
There is also a trough moving into the northwestern CONUS,
faster than the other two features.

Temperatures tonight will be fairly consistent with previous
nights, cooling down into the lower 50s. Winds will weaken
slightly overnight, but gusts around 15 kts will remain
possible.

Monday gets interesting as the aforementioned trough from the
NW CONUS pushes southeast and weakens the blocking high over the
Rockies. At 850 mb, we see the trough over the Northern Plains
with an axis extending to the southwest, moving into the CWA
Monday morning. There will be a hefty temperature gradient
across the CWA due to this cold front tomorrow. The northwestern
CWA will only warm into the mid 70s, but temperatures in the
southeast will still warm to near 90. Behind the cold front, we
expect to see northerly winds gusting around 30 kts. If the
pressure gradient is stronger than expected (~15% chance) behind
the cold front, we could see gusts approaching 40 kts, likely
around 21Z Monday-0Z Tuesday.

There are fire weather concerns throughout the week, the
details are below in the fire weather section.

Monday night and Tuesday will be cooler and closer to normal,
behind the cold front. Overnight Monday, temperature look to
cool into the 40s with Tuesday only warming into the low to mid
70s. Monday night, there is a less than 10% chance we could see
temperatures in eastern Colorado drop into the mid 30s, allowing
light frost to form. What would need to happen for temperatures
to get this cool is a completely clear sky and calm winds
overnight. However, due to the much cooler temperatures, we are
expecting to see some mid-level clouds overnight Monday. These
clouds do look to clear out in the morning, which will allow for
rapid warming Tuesday morning.

Tuesday night, southerly flow in the lower levels will keep
lows in the mid 40s. The flow will weaken Wednesday as the ridge
starts building back in. These weak winds and clear skies look
to allow Wednesday to quickly warm into the upper 80s to low
90s. There is about a 25% chance that northerly flow will make a
return Wednesday and keep highs in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Thursday and Friday are forecast to see zonal flow become more
northwesterly as guidance suggests a wave in the larger low over the
Great Lakes region will move through as ridging redevelops over the
Rockies. This is forecast to bring a shot at some cooler air with
highs closer to the lower 80`s.

The weekend is forecast to start warm on Saturday as the ridge
shifts over the area. Highs could reach the 90`s, maybe even the mid
90`s. After that, there is some variation how and when the next
upper trough/low will move through the Northern CONUS and Plains.
Another cool down will be possible, but whether that occurs Sunday
or early next week is unclear.

No precipitation is expected at this time with persistent dry air.
Critical fire weather conditions also look to be unlikely with weak
flow forecast to be over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 830 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Overview: An abrupt northerly wind shift assoc/w a cold frontal
passage late Monday morning remains the primary aviation
concern. Otherwise, clear skies and benign weather will persist.

VFR conditions /clear skies/ will rule through the TAF period
at both terminals. South winds at 8-13 knots will prevail this
evening and overnight, shifting to the SW-WSW around or shortly
after sunrise (~12-14Z). Winds will abruptly shift to the N and
increase to 17-22 knots w/gusts up to ~30 knots in association
with a cold frontal passage late Monday morning (~17Z). The
precise timing of the frontal passage (FROPA) remains somewhat
uncertain. In other words.. FROPA could occur a few hours on
either side of 17Z. Breezy NNE to NE winds will prevail through
the afternoon and may persist for several hours after sunset,
eventually decreasing to 10-15 knots Monday evening (by 06Z Tue)
as surface high pressure builds southward over the Tri-State
area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 830 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Dundy, Hitchcock and
Red Willow counties on Monday, where/when breezy (20-35 mph) N
to NE winds in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage will
coincide with RH readings around 15 percent. Further south in
eastern CO and northwest KS, analogous conditions are expected..
albeit with somewhat higher minimum RH readings (around 15-25
percent). Given exceptionally dry antecedent conditions -- e.g.
Goodland received only 0.37" of rainfall for the entire month of
September -- slightly higher RH readings will do little to
dissuade rapid/erratic fire growth, should any fires be present,
especially along and south of I-70 where the frontal passage is
more likely to occur during the afternoon. With the above in
mind.. an impact-based areal expansion of the Red Flag Warning
(covering the entire Goodland CWA) may be necessary.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 7 PM MDT /8
    PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent
FIRE WEATHER...Vincent