529
FXUS63 KGLD 111848
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1248 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today with only isolated afternoon and evening storms.
  Strong downburst winds up to 50 mph look to be the main hazard
  with any storm that develops.

- Dry conditions through the rest of the week with temperatures
  warming back into the 90s by Wednesday and near 100 by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The axis of the surface trough remains across the area leading to
light winds. A weak surface low has developed just north of the CWA
which is leading to some lingering stratus and spotty showers. An
overall cooler day is in store for the entire area with highs
forecast in the lower 80s; I did nudge highs up some as we have been
warming a few degrees higher than forecast the past few days. Some
rogue wind gusts up to 20 mph are possible across western portions
of the forecast area this afternoon due to diurnal mixing. Watching
the potential for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop
along subtle surface convergence boundaries this afternoon, a weak
500mb shortwave also looks to be in the vicinity of the CWA as well
that may provide some extra lift. Inverted v soundings are forecast
to be in place. Severe weather is not currently anticipated due
to meager lapse rates around 7 c/km. Strong downburst winds up
to 50 mph looks to be the main hazard with any storm that were
to develop this afternoon. However I do have a little concern
for landspout formation due to proximity of the low and
overlapping surface vorticity and sfc-3km CAPE increasing to
100-150 j/kg. However due to the weak winds and any surface
convergence boundaries being weak are some of the variables
playing against it. Slightly higher confidence in storms across
western Cheyenne county Colorado due to influences from the
Palmer Divide and northeastern areas due to the proximity of
the low.

Tonight, another round of showers and storms may move through
northeast portions of the area as the low wraps around
confidence is around 15-20% currently in development. Dependent
on how quickly clouds clear out overnight some patchy dense
radiation fog may develop across Hitchcock, Red Willow, Decatur
and Norton counties around 12Z before dissipating mid morning.

Tuesday, the axis of the trough begins to move out of the area as a
surface high nudges in from the NW. Light winds are again forecast
across the area due to the high. With the departing trough and in
the incoming surface high large scale subsidence will be in
place across the area therefore limiting any rainfall chances
for the day. I can`t completely rule out some terrain induced
showers/isolated storms developing along the Palmer Tuesday also
does look to be the start of the warming trend for the area
with highs warming into the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Wednesday a surface high begins to redevelop across the
southern Plains and expand northward into the Tri-State area
resulting in warmer temperatures returning to the area and
peaking Friday where highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s are
currently forecast. Heat indices a currently forecast to remain
near the air temperature so no heat related products are
currently anticipated at this time. Those in Red Willow,
Decatur, Norton, and Graham counties are forecast to see the
higher dew points currently forecast in the mid 60s so if
temperatures do trend up a few degrees if the high pressure
moves a bit further to the north then some heat indices values
may approach 105 especially on Friday. Winds may also increase
Wednesday and Friday as guidance hints at some surface low
development across northeast Colorado which would help increase
the wind fields. Winds look to be around 10-15 mph sustained
with gusts up to around 30 mph each of those days, so not
anything crazy for the High Plains but more noticeable than
most days so far this summer. There are discrepancies on
exactly where the lows will set up as a further north low would
decrease the winds.

The hot pattern looks to be short lived however as troughing is
forecast to return to the area helping to stabilize the
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. The troughing does
appear to be rather broad for this weekend which brings some low
confidence to shower and storm potential as it may have to take
an embedded shortwave to help develop anything noteworthy which
the GFS does support some potential which is what looks to be
the main driving force to the rainfall forecast at this time.
All in all it doesn`t look to be completely dry for the next
week but the signals currently are not there for widespread
rainfall similar to what we have recently seen.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1024 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Pesky stratus does not want to move out of MCK so have added a
tempo as the stratus seems to be more scattered than anything via
satellite. Other than that VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF
period. For GLD NW winds are forecast to continue through the
afternoon and are forecast to remain light, some sporadic wind
gusts up to 20 knots are possible starting around the mid
afternoon however due to diurnal mixing. Winds are then forecast
to continuously shift from 00Z Tuesday through the end of the TAF
period but remain light. For MCK winds are then forecast to remain
light and variable through around 01Z then start to continuously
shift through the end of the period.

There is a slim chance of widely scattered storms this afternoon
and early evening for each terminal along with a slightly better
chance for MCK overnight but confidence is less than 30% to
warrant a PROB30 at this time for either terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg