193
FXUS63 KGLD 222150
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy NW winds will persist on Thursday, albeit slightly
  weaker than today, at 20-30 mph (sustained) with gusts up to
  around 40 mph.

- Low chance for light accumulating snow (less than 1") in
  eastern Colorado this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 152 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

Across the region this afternoon, skies are a partly to mostly
cloudy mix with temperatures as of 100 PM MST ranging mainly in the
30s, with some lower 40s present east. Winds have continued to
remain from the northwest due to a strong ridge over the Rockies and
a closed low over the upper Mississippi River Valley, and the Tri
State area in between the two systems. Gusts have reached into the
30-40 mph range at times, with a few isolated spots over 40 mph.

The latest RAP40 500mb analysis combined with mid level water vapor
imagery are showing a broad, open trough swinging through the
central Plains. Current guidance is also bringing 700/850 mb troughs
through as well. Low level jet associated with these is helping to
enhance/persist the strong gradient at the surface. The latest
NBM/LAV hourly guidance does show this to persist at least until the
00z Thursday timeframe w/ gusts into the 30-40 mph range, dipping
slightly into the 15-30 mph range overnight.

The passage of the shortwaves is providing some lift over the area,
with low level lapse rates 8.5-9c/km. This is evident in the
increasing low/mid cloud cover area-wide. The latest
CAMs(HRRR/RAP/NamNest) are showing scattered precip chances this
evening as the shortwaves work through. Looking at the 00z-03z
Thursday range for a potential for some scattered flurries over
northeast Colorado and portions of southwest Nebraska. Confidence is
low for occurrence w/ around a 10% chance.

Going into Thursday, the passage of the shortwaves tonight will
usher in NW flow aloft at 500mb. Surface ridge will remain in place
over the central Rockies, allowing for a N/NW wind at the surface.
Gust potential around the 35-40 mph range but some higher speeds
possible. Gradual clearing will occur from north to south through
the day as another shot of CAA(Cold Air Advection) works into the
CWA, with 850mb temps dropping to -6c to -10c through the day.

Thursday night into Friday, guidance brings a developing lee-side
trough into the CWA overnight as high pressure shifts south of the
region. A weak W/SW flow will set up during the day Friday, allowing
for a nice warmup. Areas in Colorado will be under the trough, so
expecting temps a bit cooler due to lack of downslope warming and
increasing clouds. There is an elongated 500mb trough swinging
through the western portion of the country, and with another ridge
pushing south out of the northern Rockies Friday night, easterly
upslope/instability is possible with a low (20% or less) chance of
some light snow over portions of Yuma and Kit Carson counties
in Colorado. Guidance is differing as to the placement of the
ridge as it pushes south, which will bring differing snow
potential. So due to the inconsistency, will leave pops close to
previous shift.

For temps, looking for highs on Thursday to range from the upper 20s
into the lower 30s. Going into Friday, mainly 40s for most areas.
Warmest locales east of the Colorado border. Some spots south of a
line from Hill City, Kansas west to Sharon Springs, Kansas may reach
into the lower 50s.

Overnight lows for tonight will range in the lower to mid teens east
of Highway 27. Along/west of Highway 27, low teens down to the
single numbers above zero. Coldest spots mainly in Colorado.
Thursday night, single numbers to lower teens above zero, and for
Friday night, mid teens west into the 20F range east, especially
along/east of Highway 83.

Wind chill readings for the overnight periods will have single
numbers above/below zero for tonight and Thursday night. Worse
readings west of Highway 25. For Friday night, single numbers west
into the lower and mid teens east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

For the extended period, zonal flow in the upper levels will be
dominant over the Tri-State area through the weekend as a closed low
develops over California. A stream of moisture in the low to mid
levels is forecast to stream south-southeast over the western High
Plains from Alaska and perhaps some of the Pacific moisture
streaming across the Great Basin to the Colorado Rockies. The
increase in moisture brings about a chance (20-50%) for light snow
west of a McCook to Colby to Tribune line during the day on
Saturday. Snow chances shift west to locales in East-Central
Colorado west of Highway 385 Saturday night into early Sunday
morning. Snow accumulations look to be fairly light so far given the
limited moisture due to area of high pressure around 850 mb also
moving across the Western CONUS on Saturday. If the high takes
longer to move in, we could see amounts closer to an inch or two in
Eastern Colorado with lower amounts as you go further east into
Kansas and Nebraska. Once the snow tapers off Sunday morning, dry
conditions return to the area until the middle of next week.

By Tuesday, both the ECMWF and the GFS favor the closed low moving
over Four Corners region while the 850 mb high lingers over the
Rockies. With the southwest flow, warm air will advect across the
Tri-State area bringing in above normal temperatures! As the upper
low approaches, a broad expanse of moisture over the South could
advect north into Southern Kansas. Should this moisture move in on
Wednesday, locales south of the Highway 40 have a slight chance
(~15%) of seeing light snow or a rain/snow mix. Confidence is
currently low with this round of precipitation.

For temperatures we should see a nice gradual warming trend over the
weekend into next week. Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the
mid 20s over Eastern Colorado to the mid 30s over our eastern
columns of counties in Kansas and Nebraska. Sunday looks to be a bit
warmer in Colorado, but generally remain the same for the remainder
of the area. Temperatures could be a tad cooler over any snowpack
areas. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper single digits
to mid teens. Monday will be closer to normal or slightly above
normal for the area with highs in the 40s and lows in the teens to
lower 20s. Tuesday could be a pleasant day with highs in the mid 40s
to mid 50s and overnight lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Wednesday could be similar to Monday depending on the timing of
the low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
northwest 15-25kts through about 10z, then dropping to about
10-15kts. Speeds increase again from 16z-23z to near 20-30kts
before dropping to 10-15kts.

For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period.
there could be MVFR ceilings from 16z-19z around BKN025. Winds,
northwest around 15-25kts. There will be a few periods, 02z-16z
Thursday and from 22z onward where speeds drop to around
10-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

Thursday, max winds during the day will peak in the 20-30 mph range
east of the Colorado border, while in Colorado, 35mph to a localized
40-45mph is possible. In terms of humidity, areas along/west of
Highway 27 will see a low RH in the 35-45% range, and mid to upper
30s east of there. While fire wx chances are going to be low, wind
gusts will be of concern.

Friday, there will be a better chance for low humidity east of
the Colorado border with teens to mid 20s expected. In Colorado,
mid 20s to lower 30s. Wind gusts expected area-wide on Friday
will range in the 15-21 mph range, initially westerly but
shifting north through the afternoon. Low chances for criteria
to be expected as a result at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JN