025
FXUS63 KGLD 100002
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
502 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous driving conditions will persist in eastern Colorado,
  where snow and slush on area roads will turn into ice as
  temperatures fall into the 20`s by sunrise Sunday morning.

- Calmer weather pattern is forecast to end the weekend and
  begin the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1239 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Across the region this afternoon, skies have been fluctuating
from mostly cloudy to cloudy as wrap-around moisture continues
to pinwheel into the area on the backside of the exiting system.
There are still a few isolated showers as well moving through
northern portions of the CWA. Temperatures across the area are
varying greatly in the 30s and 40s due to these clouds as well
as the snowpack in Colorado. Winds are northwesterly with gusts
around 30 mph at times.

The main weather concerns for the short term period will focus
any remaining shower activity along/north of Highway 36 coming
to an end this afternoon. From there, the shift will be to the
current snowpack in Colorado and its effect on temperatures the
next few/several days. Patchy fog may also play a role in these
areas tonight into Sunday morning.

For the remainder of the afternoon into tonight, looking for
slowly decreasing clouds to occur from south to north as the
vertically stacked low(surface to 500mb) continues a slow trek
into Nebraska. NW portions of the area may see a few isolated
showers around 00z Sunday per current CAMs(HRRR, RAP, NamNest),
otherwise expecting a precip-free night. The other issue for
tonight will be where the current snowpack resides over in
Colorado. Many areas in western portions of Kit Carson have seen
the higher totals so far with numerous reports of at least 2
feet tapering down from there. The overall snowpack though will
affect temperatures tonight and perhaps though the remainder of
the short term period. As the low exits the region tonight it
will be replaced by an area of high pressure. with this
moisture/wind combination, there could be some patchy fog
potential setting up from 06z-14z Sunday. Guidance is mixed to
this forming, but western portions of the Colorado counties
could be affected. If it does form will have to monitor areas
approaching the CO/KS/NE border to see if fog becomes transient
towards there, despite a westerly downslope flow.

Going into Sunday, any fog that does occur should dissipate as
full sunshine expected through the day. Depending on the
strength of the melting of the snowpack during the day, region
highs will be greatly affected and vary widely, possibly as much
as 10-15 degrees from western portions of the Colorado counties
over east to the Colorado state line. Similar conditions on
Monday but all highly dependent on how much of the snowpack is
lost each day. Overall, the Sun-Mon timeframe will be dry as
zonal to SW flow aloft persists with a passing surface trough on
Monday. Gradient could tighten some Monday night in Colorado
with some gusts near 20 mph.

For temps, as mentioned above the snowpack in Colorado will
play a key role area-wide. Highs on Sun-Mon will range in the
40s to lower 50s in Colorado with mid 50s to lower 60s expected
east of the Colorado border. Overnight lows will range in the
20s in Colorado each night, with upper 20s to mid and upper 30s
east. The cold overnight lows in spots will create wind chill
readings in the teens and 20s in Colorado and a mix of 20s and
30s in KS/NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Mid level troughing and a surface cold front looks to move
across the area Tuesday. Did increase the non snow pack areas a
few degrees as breezy southwest (210-230) winds around 15-20
knots will be present which climatologically does lead to warmer
temperatures than what guidance suggests. Will see breezy winds
but forecast soundings even on the GFS which does favor good
mixing keeps winds in the mixing layer around 25-35 mph. Wind
shift associated with the cold front looks to move into the area
around late afternoon to early evening across the area. At this
time it does look to be a dry front with nothing more than a
wind shift and cooler temperatures for Wednesday. The most
difficult and uncertain part of the extended forecast will be
the temperatures across the snow pack as it will depend on much
melts over the next few days. Due to anticipating that some snow
pack will remain since around 2 feet of snow fell have trend
temperatures across eastern Colorado down a few degrees. Now if
the snowpack does melt more than currently anticipated then my
temperatures will be to low. Elsewhere, mainly westerly
downsloping winds should help keep temperatures fairly mild in
the 50s to low 60s but a question to keep in mind and also see
what happens is despite the westerly winds with such a large
fetch of snow cover will that cool temperatures a little more?

As for precipitation the pattern does look to favor dry
conditions with mid level ridging present across the Plains.
There is however suggestions that another trough will develop
next weekend and into the next work week. Its about a one third
split with ensemble members that precipitation would accompany
this next system. However with the members that do show
precipitation they do vary on the timing, intensity and overall
location of the system and the accompanying precipitation. It is
something to keep an eye but confidence is to low to mention
anything in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 450 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

MVFR ceilings (2000-3000 ft AGL) are anticipated to affect both
terminals this evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to lift to
VFR and/or dissipate overnight (~06-09Z) -- earlier at GLD and
later at MCK -- as the vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone
(presently situated over central Nebraska) departs the region..
tracking northeast toward the Upper Midwest. WNW to NW winds at
10-15 knots this evening will back to the W and decrease to
~5-10 knots overnight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent