410
FXUS63 KGLD 120524
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1124 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated thunderstorm or two may develop Monday afternoon
  in the Kansas and Colorado border area with daytime heating.
  Brief gusty winds will be possible near any thunderstorm that
  develops.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible
  in Eastern Colorado Monday through Wednesday.

- Winds are forecast to be breezy to begin the week with gusts
  generally between 20 and 40 mph.

- Hotter, with temperatures in the 80s and 90s to begin the next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025

Ridging will continue to be the dominant feature aloft,
although starting to see some southwesterly flow move into
central Colorado by Monday afternoon. Latest CAMs suggest
isolated afternoon storms may develop in the Kansas/Colorado
border area (mainly on the Colorado side). Forcing appears to be
tied to convergence along the lee trough, but with the ridge
aloft that will limit coverage substantially. Environment does
show some weak SBCAPE available and a deep subcloud dry layer
with plentiful DCAPE, so gusty winds will be the main hazard
near any storm that develops. They will quickly fade with loss
of surface heating by 02z. Otherwise, most locations will stay
dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s and breezy south winds.
Currently not anticipating critical fire weather conditions,
though may see some elevated conditions in northeast Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sun May 11 2025

Current surface observations show low pressure developing along
the Front Range, contributing to a tight pressure gradient and
allowing for the winds from the south around 15-25 mph with
gusts to 40 mph. Higher up, satellite shows a large upper low
over the Southern Plains. For the remainder of today, conditions
are forecast to not change too much with the pressure gradient
in place through the day keeping winds around where they are
now. High temperatures are still on track to warm into the 80s
across the area. Dry air is in place and will continue to keep
skies clear through the night.

Tonight, the pressure gradient is forecast to weaken a bit as
the higher pressure over the Plains shifts east. This should
allow the winds to weaken more to around 10-20 mph with
occasional gusts around 30 mph. A few clouds may move through
the area if storms form west of the area near the Front Range,
but precipitation chances for the area are unlikely due to the
dry conditions. Lows are forecast to drop into the 40s and 50s.

Tomorrow, the upper low over the south is forecast to push east
as the next upper low/trough over the northwest shift east into
the Northern Rockies. As the next upper trough pushes east,
surface low pressure is forecast to become more broad and a
little deeper across the High Plains and Rockies. This will
allow the area to have breezy southerly winds again. However, as
ensembles suggest that the trough could tilt and push east
faster than deterministic guidance, the surface low may be too
broad and move over the area. For locales that have the low
center move closer, winds are actually forecast to be 15 mph or
less, especially since the two upper lows are forecast to allow
for split flow or slight ridging over the area. This is keeping
confidence low that critical fire weather conditions would
develop in areas that aren`t green, even with warmer
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s forecast. Clear skies are
forecast for the majority of the day, though some guidance is
hinting at some saturation with a small streak of moisture
around 700-500mb on the leading edge of the next trough and
where the mid to upper flow converges. Some cumulus clouds and
maybe even a few light sprinkles are possible late in the day
around the Colorado border, but the dry air near the surface
will likely be too much for rain to form.

Tomorrow night, the upper low over the Rockies is forecast to
push further south and east. With it broadening, the low
pressure at the surface and the gradient is also forecast to
broaden a bit and allow winds to lower to around 10-15 mph. Any
cloud cover from the aforementioned mid-level moisture looks to
dissipate by midnight and allow for clear skies and lows in the
low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025

The long term period continue to be forecast to be fairly
active. Tuesday and Wednesday start with the upper low over the
Rockies continuing to meander east before swinging through the
Plains. The current forecast keeps the trough over the Western
Rockies on Tuesday and then swings it through on Wednesday. In
this scenario, the surface low system would remain west of the
area Tuesday, allowing for breezy winds and highs near 90.
Wednesday would then have the low move through the area during
the day, slightly lowering temperatures as colder air advects in
and increasing winds on the backside of the low. In this
scenario, critical fire weather conditions in Eastern Colorado
remain the main concern as both days could have RH drop into the
low teens with gusts of 25-40 mph. Another potential concern is
for some thunderstorm development Wednesday on the wrap around
side of the low. While the dry air near the surface would hinder
storms from producing rain and hail, severe wind gusts may be
possible. The issue at hand is that ensembles show a range of
solutions, mainly tied to moving the upper trough east faster
and broadening it. This is largely dependent on how quickly
another upper low in the east moves east and out of the way.
Faster scenarios would likely lead to slightly cooler
temperatures both days with a faster system progression.
Tuesday`s fire weather chances would likely decrease as the low
center moves more over the area and lowers winds while
Wednesday`s chances would increase with winds becoming stronger
on the backside. Wednesday`s storm chances would also lower if
the system moved through faster.

The remainder of the week is forecast to be a bit cooler as
another trough moves into the west behind the trough to begin
the week. Guidance is a little split on how deep this trough
would be and if the flow would be more split flow instead. In
either case, an upstream trough or split in the flow is likely
to lead to near average temperatures and allow for a few chances
for some storms, especially if it digs into the Desert
Southwest like guidance is currently suggesting. There is also
then a chance for a more organized system to move through the
area as the trough/low pushes east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. An isolated afternoon or early evening storm is
possible near KGLD Monday, but probability of impacting the
terminal is less than 10%.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024