060
FXUS63 KGLD 092130
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through Monday with Mondays high temperatures
  in the middle 70s to lower 80s. Record/near record high
  temperature in McCook, Nebraska.

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across Greeley
  and Wichita counties Monday afternoon.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are
  currently forecast for much of the area Thursday afternoon.

- The next big weather system is forecast to move in to the area
  at the end of next week. Strong winds and precipitation in the
  form of rain and snow will occur if this system holds
  together.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Across the region this afternoon, skies are sunny as high
pressure dominates the area`s wx. Temperatures are in the lower
to mid 60s as of 100 PM MT, with a persistent northwesterly
flow, with some gusts up to/around 25 mph at times.

The main wx concerns for the short term period will continue to
focus on the very dry conditions expected area-wide, peaking on
Monday. Conditions on Monday have increased fire wx concerns.

The latest RAP40 500mb analysis along with mid level water
vapor imagery show an amplified ridge moving slowly east from
the western portion of the country. Current NAM/GFS show this
ridge sliding south going into Monday allowing for zonal flow
aloft lasting into Tuesday. The ridge returns going into
Wednesday, occurring ahead of a shortwave that passes south of
the CWA Wednesday night.

At the surface, ridge will slide south of the CWA overnight
tonight, allowing for a lee-side trough to set up along the
Front Range. Guidance shifts this slowly east into the Plains on
Monday as a front. The location of the boundary will play a key
role for fire wx concerns during the afternoon hrs. Currently
thinking the system sets up along the Colorado border with a
slow trek east through 00z Tuesday. 850 mb temps will range
around +16c to +20c, and has shown fair consistency for the past
several model runs, and as a result have kept highs close to
previous forecast, some of which may be records. The westerly
flow ahead of the front will provide ample downslope warming to
create a low RH day, dropping into the single numbers in many
locales. Wind criteria for Red Flag concerns only currently
meets in Greeley/Wichita counties, so have issued a Red Flag
Warning. Areas north will have to continue to be monitored, but
winds do not meet the 3-hr criteria for 25+ mph at this time.

The passage of the front Monday evening will give way to a
ridge Monday night into Tuesday. The ridge will slide east of
the CWA during the day, allowing for a northeast to southeast
shift in winds. The arrival of the SE flow will increase low
level moisture, lowering the threat of fire wx, although winds
do approach 20 mph in Colorado. The ridge slides east overnight
Tuesday, giving way to a broad low trough that works out into
the central Plains during the day in tandem with a passing upper
level shortwave. Surface flow is mostly weak as the low
meanders through the day. Low level moisture does decrease, w/
the western CWA approaching RH criteria for fire wx concerns.
Colorado could again see gusts near 20 mpg, raising near
critical fire wx concerns an will have to be monitored.

For temps, highs on Monday will approach records in some spots
with a range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s expected. Please
refer to the Climate section below for record information. Going
into Tuesday, highs in the lower to mid 60s give way to mid 60s
to lower 70s on Wednesday. Overnight lows tonight and Monday
night will range in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Tuesday night, low
30s area-wide are expected. By Wednesday night, mainly mid to
upper 30s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MST Sun Mar 9 2025

For the extended period, the main wx concerns will be on fire
wx chances on Thursday, followed by a storm system that brings
the potential for a rain/snow mix to the region, along with
strong winds on Friday/Friday night.

The current runs of the GFS/ECMWF show amplified upper ridging
over the plains on Thursday with SW flow aloft. This is enhanced
some down to 700mb as a weak trough works through the northern
periphery of the main ridge. At the surface, a strong, broad
trough sets up over eastern Colorado, bringing a SW downslope
flow that will dry out the region. Current humidity levels drop
into the mid and upper teens for most areas. Near critical to
critical fire wx conditions are possible to occur as
temperatures set to go above normal again due to the downslope
warming. Afternoon gusts do approach 20-25 mph as well.

This ridge will give way to a closed, stacked low from the
surface to 500mb. Guidance has begun to shift the positioning of
this system a bit more south and east from previous runs. The
latest GEFS/SREF ensembles show a more northeasterly track.
Temps on the east side will bring about a 30-50% chance for
showers. The main focus brings the west side of the low as wrap-
around moisture pinwheels into the northern CWA. Temperatures
on the backside similar to the previous system a few days ago
that brought a rain/snow mix to the CWA. This will be highly
dependent on how fast CAA spills south into the area. This will
affect any potential snow totals, so looking at rain as main
p-type initially. The other issue with this system will be the
strong wind potential. Soundings suggest a 40-50kt potential to
mix mainly for locales along/west of Highway 27. Some hints at
higher speeds putting some locales over high wind warning
criteria. Will have to monitor for snow bands to develop on the
back side of the system which could inflate expected snow, but
again highly dependent on the amount of cold air in the west to
change the p-type to all snow, and bring about blizzard
conditions. In the east, best instability does occur east of the
CWA, but depending on timing of the arrival of the low, eastern
locales could see some thunder potential and will have to be
monitored. The tail end of the system does shift east of the CWA
fairly quickly overnight, giving way to dry conditions for next
weekend.

For temps, looking for highs Thursday to range from upper 60s
to low 70s west, into the mid 70s east. Warmest areas will be
mostly along/east of Highway 83. Going into Friday, with a front
pushing through the region a wide range in highs is expected
from the upper 40s to lower 50s in Colorado, to the upper 50s
through the mid 60s east of there. Warmest areas again
along/east of Highway 83. Going into the upcoming weekend, upper
40s to mid 50s Saturday gives way to upper 50s to lower 60s for
Sunday.

Overnight lows Thursday night will also see a wide range from
the 30s mainly along/west of Highway 27 and mainly 40s east of
there. Friday night, low 20s west into the 30F range east,
especially in Norton and Graham counties. For this weekend, 20s
for lows Saturday night give way to upper 20s to the mid 30s on
Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF period
at both terminals. Winds will remain light and gradually shift
to the SW overnight.. then veer to the W and modestly increase
to 8-14 knots within a few hours after sunrise. Westerly winds
may become variable for a few hours during the late morning or
early afternoon.. as the MSLP gradient slackens in the presence
of a weak, broad surface trough over the region. Downward
momentum transport associated with deep vertical mixing may
yield occasional or sporadic westerly wind gusts up to 15-20
knots during the mid-late afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 115 PM MST Sat Mar 8 2025

Near record to record high temperatures are possible across
portions of the Tri-State area on Monday March 10th. Record
high temperatures for the date (March 10) are listed below.

======================================
LOCATION               RECORD HIGH (F)
======================================
Goodland KS.........   87 set in 1989
McCook NE...........   78 set in 2014
Hill City KS........   94 set in 1989
Burlington CO.......   83 set in 1989
Colby KS............   82 set in 1989
Tribune KS..........   84 set in 1972
Yuma CO.............   85 set in 1989

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 6 PM MDT /7 PM
     CDT/ Monday for KSZ041-042.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Vincent
CLIMATE...JN