003
FXUS63 KGLD 262042
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog expected to return this evening into the overnight hours,
  impacting travel with low visibility a mile or less at times..

- Marginal/Slight risk for severe weather Sunday afternoon,
  mainly east of the Colorado border. Hail, wind and isolated
  tornado threats possible.

- Red Flag Warning for northeast Colorado on Sunday, with a Fire
  Weather Watch for areas along/south of Highway 40 for Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies remain cloudy as a
strong surface ridge continues a slow trudge east of the CWA.
Southeast winds with gusts in the 25-35 mph are helping to bring in
slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday, the cloud cover
continues to impede daytime heating as highs as of 2 PM MT are only
ranging in the lower to mid 50s.

The main weather concerns for the short term period are going to
focus on the chances for precipitation through tonight along with
another round of fog. Sunday will bring about severe weather chances
for much of the region, with the potential for increased fire
weather concerns in portions of northeast Colorado. Monday will have
fire weather concerns for locales south of the Interstate.

This afternoon and tonight, looking for fog to redevelop this
evening, with guidance suggesting some dense fog possible in the
east closest to the exiting ridge through the overnight. Also, a
weak 700mb shortwave will work northeast along the western periphery
of the upper ridge overnight. CAMs only show scattered chances for
showers and thunder. With the current and expected cloud cover,
thinking instability lacking so main p-type overnight will stay as
showers, with a few isolated storms.

For Sunday and Sunday night, the focus over this 24 hour period will
be two-fold. First, drier air working in from the west along a
dryline/front combined with strong southwest flow will bring about
critical fire weather conditions in Colorado. Gusts of 35mph or
higher, combined with above normal temperatures will bring about
these conditions. Have issued a Red Flag Warning 17z-01z as a
result. Ahead of the drier air, a moister environment will create
enough instability to trigger scattered thunderstorms, especially in
N/E zones away from Colorado. the latest CAMs have been showing
scattered convection possible, so with this trend have lowered pops
some to 30-50%. SPC still carries a Marginal and Slight risk area
for the majority of the CWA. Model soundings do show some
capping/inversion possibility, which could limit storm potential.
Hail, wind and even isolated tornado threats are possible.

A low associated with the dryline/front lifts northeast overnight,
clearing precipitation from SW to NE. This will give way to wrap-
around W/NW flow over the area for Monday into Monday night.
Moisture will pinwheel around the backside of the exiting system,
enhanced by an open wave triggering a 15-20% chance for showers in
the NW. Cloud cover will be present in areas north of the
Interstate, opening up areas mainly along/south of Highway 40 to a
strong westerly downslope gradient with gust to 30 mph. Locales in
this area will see ample drying resulting in critical fire wx
conditions to develop. A Fire Wx Watch has been issued as a result.

For temps, highs on Sunday will range from the upper 70s into the
mid 80s. Warmest areas will be along/west of Highway 25 due to less
cloud cover. Going into Monday, 70-80F is the range with warmest
areas along/east of Highway 25. Overnight lows tonight will range
from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Sunday night will have a wider
range due to colder air working in from the west. Looking for upper
30s to lower 40s in Colorado, lower to mid 40s from the Colorado
border to Highway 25. East of there, upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest
east of Highway 83. Colder Monday night with mainly 30s west of
Highway 83, and east, upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Tuesday...dry weather is currently forecast across the area as
moisture in the 850-500mb layer is currently too low for any
precipitation as an upper level trough moves through. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s with low temperatures in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday...as another upper trough moves through, there will be a
20%-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
and a 30%-50% chance overnight. High temperatures bounce back into
the upper 60s to middle 70s with low temperatures in the 40s.

Thursday...850-500mb moisture within the upper trough will support a
20%-30% chance for light showers during the day before decreasing
from north to south overnight leaving a 20% chance for showers from
Flagler to Tribune and points south. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle 60s to lower 70s with low
temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s.

Friday...a high amplitude ridge axis moves across the area, in
between a trough over the northeast US and one west of the Rockies.
A weather system per GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850-500mb relative humidity
forecasts will move through the area from the southwest overnight,
supporting NBM pops in the 20% range for showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures are forecast to be int he lower to middle 70s with
low temperatures in the 40s.

Saturday...there may be some lingering 850-500mb moisture available
for NBM pops in the 20% range for showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1002 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Both terminals (KGLD/KMCK) will continue to see ceilings range
from OVC002-006 through the forecast period. Fog and the
chances for showers will bring about MVFR/IFR visibility around
1-4sm through the forecast as well. Winds for KGLD, southeast
around 15-30kts. Winds for KMCK, southeast around 15-25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

For Sunday, a strong southwesterly gradient(with gusts over 40 mph)
across Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, combined
with above normal temperatures in the 80s will create Critical Fire
Weather conditions mainly during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Humidity will drop to the lower teens during this time.

For Monday, westerly flow with gusts to 30 mph for areas along/south
of Highway 40 along with humidity into the lower to mid teens with
the downslope warming, will create critical fire weather conditions
during the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Sunday for COZ252>254.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for COZ254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JN