569
FXUS63 KGLD 150435
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
935 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Benign weather and above average temperatures will prevail
  through the start of the weekend. Below average temperatures
  will persist in areas with snow cover (western Kit
  Carson/Cheyenne counties in CO).

- Active pattern looks to return early next week with rain
  chances on Monday.

- Strong north-northwesterly winds are forecast for the middle
  of next week, ushering in cold temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1059 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Dry conditions are expected to persist through the period as an
upper ridge moves over Great Plains. Shortwaves moving across the
mid and upper layers will strengthen a lee trough over the Western
High Plains. Clear skies for today will help boost melting of the
snowpack over the Palmer Divide region and East-Central Colorado.
Cooler temperatures will remain over the snowpack locales with highs
in the 40s to 50s over Colorado and 50s to mid 60s east of the
Colorado border. Winds are expected to be light and variable this
afternoon into the overnight hours. Overnight lows will be in the
20s generally west of Highway 27. East of Highway 27, overnight lows
will be in the lower 30s.

Little changes with the pattern tomorrow with the sliding of the
ridge axis over the Mississippi River Basin. Winds aloft will become
southwesterly as a trough deepens over the Pacific Northwest. The
surface trough is expected to broaden across the High Plains. During
the afternoon hours, southerly winds are expected to increase to 10-
15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Temperatures will be similar to today
with highs in the mid to upper 40s over the remaining snowpack with
the remaining portion of the area expected to have highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s near the
Palmer Divide to the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Pattern across the plains will once again become active as another
strong H5 trough intensifies near Baja California. There is a
surprising amount of consensus that trough will be ejected
across the Plains on Monday, taking a more easterly track than
the intense system that impacted the area last week. From Monday
on however,medium range guidance rapidly varies with how the
next trough evolves bringing a large number of potential
scenarios ranging from relatively dry conditions to a snow
storm. Given all the aforementioned uncertainty, details will
remain hard to be confident in after Monday.

Saturday-Sunday...Low pressure system over the Dakotas will drive a
cold front into the region by Saturday afternoon with front stalling
near the KS/OK border overnight Saturday. Impact of front will not
really be felt until Sunday as temperatures will be around 10
degrees cooler.  Period of rather tranquil weather will come to an
end on Sunday night as upper level low moves into the Texas
panhandle and a broad area of warm air advection/forced ascent takes
place across southern Kansas. Flow aloft would support a wide area
of precipitation in this area, although flow would suggest a rather
sharp western edge flow becomes subsident sharply upwind from
frontal zone. Aside from rain, will need to keep an eye for
development of advection fog along leading edge of moisture return
as advecting dewpoints will likely be higher than the ambient
temperature in a few areas.

Monday-Monday Night...Strong low pressure system will deepen over
central and eastern Kansas with models becoming a bit closer with
each other although the more east of a track this low takes, the
less of an impact will be. Current data supports a large area of
precipitation (staying rain) across eastern two tiers of counties.
Isentropic/thermal fields continue to show a sharp change in the
flow around the low that would promote a sharp back end of the
precipitation shield as opposed to a more diffuse precip shield,
which should confine meaningful precipitation to this area.  As low
intensifies in the afternoon and evening, winds should increase
fairly rapidly. The GFS in particular aggressively ramps up the
0-1km wind speeds in the 00-12Z Tues time period. A saving
grace is this would occur at night, so not convinced there is a
threat for intense winds during this period. Additionally, a
more easterly low track, which is preferred, would drastically
reduce wind threat.

Tuesday-Thursday...Ensemble data as well as operational models
solutions diverge rapidly during this period, but generally
agree that a large trough will be over/near the area with a
series of weaker impulses moving through the flow. At this point
can say with confidence that temperatures will be on the cool
side with a few chances for light snow, but timing, amount and
duration information is very uncertain at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions will continue through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 16z,
increasing in speed with gusts up to 30kts from 17z through the
rest of the taf period.

KMCK...VFR conditions will continue through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 16z.
From 17z-22z, southeasterly winds slowly increasing, gusting up
to 25kts. After 23z, southeast winds subside below 11kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...99