171
FXUS63 KGLD 281747
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1047 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions across the forecast area
  Friday afternoon due to northerly winds gusting to 30 mph and
  relative humidity falling below 20 percent.

- Sunday and Sunday night have a 30-40% chance for some rain
  showers, favoring Northwest Kansas.

- A low pressure system anticipated to develop over the Central
  Plains Monday night could bring strong northerly winds, snow
  and blowing snow to portions of the Tri-State area on Tuesday.
  Low confidence in precipitation amounts and coverage at this
  range. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 217 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Today and Saturday are forecast to keep the area underneath
upper northwest flow and slight ridging. With this, high
temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s each day with mostly
clear skies. Today is forecast to be a bit windier than tomorrow
as weak cold front swings through the area due to an upper
trough and associated surface low swinging through the Great
Lakes region. Winds are forecast to shift to out of the north
with speeds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph. No
precipitation is expected due to dry air over the area.
Nighttime lows are forecast to be in the twenties tonight with
clear skies and calm winds. Tomorrow night, lows are forecast to
be a bit warmer around 30 as winds of 10-15 mph keep us a
little more mixed.

Sunday, the cut-off low lingering in the upper ridge over the
west is forecast to shift east and move an area of low pressure
over the area from the Front Range. There doesn`t seem to be
much temperature advection with the broader ridge over the west,
so temperatures will likely warm to the 60s again. That being
said, the low is forecast to pull some moisture off from the
south and give a chance for cloudy skies by the late morning
hours. Locales that stay in cloud cover would be more likely to
stay near the low 50`s for temperatures. The moisture moving in
with the surface low will also give the area a chance for
precipitation. That being said, the chances for rain remain
around 30-40% and favor Northwest Kansas as the system is
favoring more along the Southern Kansas border which would keep
the moisture transport generally south of the area. The southern
solution has been favored by ensemble 500mb spread charts,
which is why I`m keeping the chances generally around 30%.
Amounts would generally be a trace to a tenth of an inch. If the
system moved more over the Tri-State area, most of the area
would see rain and could see up to half an inch. Thunderstorms
would also be possible with this with severe weather unlikely no
matter what track the system takes.

Sunday night would see any showers/storms that did develop
quickly shift east of the area. Lows would remain relatively
higher in the 30`s and 40`s due to the increased moisture as
long as the system doesn`t push east too quickly.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Short Version: A low pressure system anticipated to develop
over the Central Plains Monday night may bring strong northerly
winds, accumulating snow and blowing snow to portions of the
Tri-State area on Tuesday. Impacts (and impact magnitude) will
highly depend upon the precise evolution and track of the low, a
system that has not yet developed, and will not even begin to
develop until Monday night. In this pattern and at this range
(4 days out), further details cannot yet be ascertained with
confidence. What can we say? From a pattern recognition
standpoint, strong northerly winds are a good bet. The nearby
presence of a colder airmass (over the Northern Plains) suggests
that, if moderate to heavy precipitation is present.. snow is a
good bet.

Longer Version: A highly amplified and blocked synoptic pattern
characterized by deep ridging over the western CONUS and deep
troughing over the eastern CONUS (through Saturday) will undergo
a complex transition to a more progressive/active synoptic
pattern early next week.

Primary Feature of Interest: A progressive upper level trough
in the northern Pacific (~1500 miles offshore at 09Z this
morning) will decrease in forward speed, stall and meander (in
the form of an upper level low) as it approaches.. and begins to
erode.. the blocking ridge along the Pacific Coast this
weekend. The ridge, a barrier at first, will ultimately relent..
and the aforementioned upper low will resume an eastward motion
across the Intermountain West and Desert Southwest (Mon).. the
4-Corners and central-southern Rockies (Mon night).. the
Central-Southern Plains (Tue) and the Central-Southern MS River
Valley (Tue night).

00Z 02/28 operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in far
better agreement with regard to the evolution of the upper low
and associated mid-latitude cyclone in the lee of the Rockies
Tue-Tue night. However, at 4 days (96-hr) out.. in this type of
pattern, a synoptic pattern undergoing a complex transition
(blocked to progressive), a pattern in which the primary feature
of interest is [1] presently located ~1500 miles offshore in
the relatively data-void northern Pacific and [2] likely to
stall and meander for an extended period of time (at least
24-hr) prior to traversing the complex terrain of the
Intermountain West and Rockies.. below average forecast
confidence persists.

Forecast confidence typically decreases with range. `Below
average`, in this context, is intended to communicate a further
reduction in confidence associated with /inherent to/ increased
pattern complexity -- e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off
waves, multibranched jet/wave interactions and potentially
significant forms of constructive/destructive interference,
among others.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1040 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Breezy northerly winds
will become light then become variable later tonight. Tomorrow
winds will be light from the south or southeast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...JTL