509
FXUS63 KGLD 130731
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
131 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monday night has a better chance for showers (30-50% chance).
  Patches of dense fog may also form.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through next week with
  highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Wednesday could see the return
  of strong winds with gusts above 50 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

An upper trough remains dominant over the Western Contiguous United
States (CONUS) while the ridge keeps shifting east, placing the High
Plains under southwest flow aloft. Near the surface, high
pressure sits over the area while the surface low slides east-
northeast across the Panhandles and into Central Kansas
throughout the day today. 00Z and 06Z guidance are in fairly
good agreement that the surface low will begin it`s push into
Kansas this afternoon bringing an increase in low level moisture
to the area, especially over the southeast corner of the County
Warning Area. The increase in moisture will bring chances (up
to 60%) for showers to develop and move over locales primarily
along and east of Highway 25 during the mid afternoon to
overnight hours. For those west of Highway 25, the better
chances for rain (40-50%) could come overnight into Tuesday
morning. We also have potential for patchy dense fog to develop
overnight where the showers do not form or go over. Temperatures
are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s today under
mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows should fall into the mid 40s
to lower 50s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Tuesday is forecast to be a fairly seasonable day as the area
remains in southwest flow aloft and sees clearing from moisture
slowly pushing off to the east. There could still be a few
showers that linger, especially in the east and south.
Otherwise, the cloud cover and lack of airmass change should
have highs around 70. Winds should strengthen a tad as low
pressure redevelops along the Front Range with speeds around 10
to 25 mph.

Wednesday, guidance is becoming more aggressive on the upper
trough in the west advancing east and deepening. In this
scenario, Wednesday would be a warm and windy day. The advancing
trough may help the ridge amplify which would give temperatures
in the 80s, especially with southerly warm air advection. The
winds would become strong as the low on the Front Range would
deepen with the trough and increase the pressure gradient. The
height fields to would become tighter with the advancing trough.
In this scenario, speeds around 25-35 mph and gusts to 60 mph
are possible. If this scenario doesn`t pan out, the trough would
instead broaden as it moves east, lessening how deep it becomes
and how deep the surface low becomes. We would still likely
warm into the 80s, but winds would be more likely to be like
Saturday, with speeds around 20-30 mph and gusts to 50 mph.
Precipitation chances are currently low with dry air forecast to
intrude into the area.

For the end of the week, the current forecast pattern is for
the Plains to be under broad troughing aloft after the main
trough axis swinging through. With this, the area would be more
seasonable with highs in the 60s and 70s and winds around 10-20
mph. Showers and storms are possible, especially on Thursday as
the remainder of the front passes through and potentially drags
some mid-level moisture through with it. We`ll need to keep an
eye out for any reinforcing trough or cold air surge, as that
could allow us to have better chances at reaching freezing
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the KMCK and KGLD terminals
through the TAF period. Northeast winds at 5-10kts will gradually
shift to the E by ~16Z with winds increasing to 10-15 kts with
gusts to 20 kts possibly through the afternoon hours. Broken to
overcast ceilings as low as ~3,500 ft AGL may develop during the
late afternoon with overcast conditions setting in after 00Z
over the terminals through the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK