778
FXUS63 KGLD 102336
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
536 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm this weekend with highs in the 80s and low 90s. Winds are
  forecast to gusts between 30-45 mph with a few gusts to 50
  mph.

- Some showers and maybe a storms or two are possible over the
  weekend. Overall chances are around 20-30%.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through next week with
  highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. May see breezy winds again
  around mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Current observations show cloud cover streaming in from the west as
moisture continues to be pushed into the Southwestern United States.
The cloud cover remains forecast to continue and increase through
the remainder of the day. This has kept temperatures from heating up
as much as they could have, with morning temperatures generally in
the 60s. Temperatures should peak in the 70s for most of the area,
with maybe some 80s in Northwest Kansas where the cloud cover is
more spotty around the noon hour. Winds are slowly increasing to
around 10-15 mph as the surface low pressure builds along the Front
Range.

This evening and tonight, cloudy skies with a few showers are
forecast for the area as moisture continues to stream in from the
west. Chances for showers remain around 20-30% and favoring Eastern
Colorado and the Tri-State border area. These areas are close to
where some weak surface convergence from the low will be, along with
where the better moisture content should be concentrated. The reason
the chances remain low is that the low levels are forecast to remain
fairly dry. Most of the moisture streaming in is in the mid to high
level. So even if showers and storms try to form where there is
moisture, the precipitation may not be able to make it to the
ground. Winds should remain around 10-15 mph as the pressure
gradient remains a little tight with the surface low forecast to
remain along the Front Range. With the winds providing mixing and
the clouds insulating aloft, temperatures will likely stay in the
60s tonight. These factors will also limit the potential for fog,
though southeasterly winds may be able to produce a few patches of
fog where any lower level moisture lingers.

Saturday, an upper trough is forecast to begin pushing east through
the Western United States. As it does so, it should deepen the
surface low and begin to push it east off the Front Range. With the
low deepening, winds are forecast to increase with speeds around 15-
30 mph. Matching upper troughs at 850mb and 700mb are also forecast
to strengthen the flow to around 35 kts, which could allow for gusts
of 35-45 mph. With the trough forecast to be fairly broad, there
doesn`t appear to be much stronger winds in the air column, which
limits the potential for wind gusts above 50 mph. There`s also a
chance that the cloud cover may reinforce and stay in place
tomorrow, limiting how high we mix out. The best chances for clearer
skies and stronger winds are in Northwest Kansas and Southwest
Nebraska, as the surface low may move over Eastern Colorado by the
afternoon hours. Eastern Colorado is forecast to highs in the low
80s, while the chances for more sunshine have the rest of the area
forecast to warm into the mid to upper 80s. The dry air near the
surface is likely to prevent any precipitation during the day
tomorrow except for maybe a few showers.

Late Saturday afternoon and through the night, the winds are
forecast to lower a bit as the surface low moves over more of the
area. As the low moves into more of the area and the upper trough
gets closer, they are forecast to push a better band of mid-level
moisture into the area. This could allow for showers and a few
storms to form in Eastern Colorado and push east. The chance of
these showers forming and/or lasting is around and below 25% due to
the dry levels that are forecast around the saturated layer. As
such, minimal accumulations and impacts are expected at this time.
Temperatures are forecast to remain in the 60s and 70s for most of
the area with the cloud cover, while western portions of the area
may drop into the 50s if the low shifts far enough east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Sunday, the surface front/low is forecast to push through the area
as the upper trough continues to push east and north. As it does so,
drier and colder air should be pulled into the area. For the
northwestern half of the area, this will likely lead to a dry day
with temperatures in the 70s and low 80s, along with northerly winds
around 15-25 mph and gusts to 40 mph. For locales closer to Central
Kansas, temperatures will still warm into the 80s with a few showers
possible during the afternoon and evening hours.

Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be cooler in the wake of the
front and with broad upper troughing across much of the Western
United States and Plains. Highs are currently forecast to be in the
50s and 60s with lows in the upper 30s and 40s. Currently, the
chance for freezing temperatures is less than 10%, with few ensemble
members showing the higher pressure/colder air mass being strong
enough to give us our first freeze. There could be additional
chances for showers and storms as the broad trough may shift the
moisture that has been in the southwest more over the area, albeit
the high pressure will probably hinder precip development.

The mid to end part of the week is less certain. Another more
concentrated trough is forecast to develop during the early part of
the week over the West Coast. However, guidance shows a decent
spread on when it will advance east into the Plains. The current
consensus is similar to what will happen this weekend and early next
week. A more pronounced trough will move east, developing and
pushing a surface low system through the area. It would then lift
north while another trough develops over the west coast. Currently
have the forecast somewhat similar with breezier winds and high
temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Thursday or Friday could see highs
in the 50s and lows in the 30s if timing holds and the trough is
deep enough. Will need to watch for the potential wind threat and
chance of first freeze.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the TAFs. Winds at KGLD will
remain breezy through most of the evening; KMCK will remain
light. Both sites will have breezy winds tomorrow, higher than
today. However, this is dependent on breaks in the clouds during
the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JTL