660
FXUS63 KGLD 061121
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
521 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Patchy frost is possible across northern portions of Yuma
 county in Colorado into Dundy county in Nebraska. Lows could
 drop into the mid and upper 30s by sunrise this morning.

-Cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected today. A
 warming trend will follow, during the work week. Dry conditions
 will persist throughout the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 426 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Sunday will be a bit cooler thanks to CAA behind yesterday`s cold
front as the ridge builds back over the area both aloft and near the
surface. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s with RH
values dropping into the mid to upper teens across the area. There
is a less than 15% chance for near critical to critical fire
conditions along and west of the Colorado border. Brief gusts of 20-
25 mph will be possible  this afternoon primarily west of the
Colorado border and south of US-40 in Western Kansas Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 40s.

On Monday, a near surface trough will extend along the Front Range.
The surface trough will lead to drier conditions over Eastern
Colorado as RH values could fall into the low to mid teens. With a
warm front setting up along the Colorado border, winds behind the
front will become northerly with gusts to 25 mph while those ahead
of the front will have southerly to southwesterly winds gusting to
~20 mph. That said, there are concerns for near critical to briefly
critical fire weather conditions occurring in Eastern Colorado
Monday afternoon,. Main concern is whether the 15% and 25 mph
criteria can hit and overlap for more than an hour or two. Given
the low confidence conditions occur, we have held of for now on
any fire weather related hazard products. Highs are forecast to
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows in the
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A ridge is expected to enter the southwestern CONUS early in the
week, becoming a weakly organized high pressure system centered over
the Four Corners region by Wednesday. This high pressure feature
will block any troughs from impacting the High Plains through the
workweek, meaning we will remain dry and fairly warm. We are
expecting a gradual warming trend through the workweek, with Monday
warming into the lower 80s and by Friday upper 80s to low 90s are
forecast. Overnight temperatures will follow a warming pattern, too.
Monday night, lows in the upper 40s are forecast and by Friday
night, lows in the lower to mid 50s are expected.

GFS, ECMWF, and CMC-NH guidance are all showing a trough moving into
the northwestern CONUS around the Friday/Saturday timeframe. We
could begin to see impacts of the trough on Saturday, including
cooler temperatures and potentially some increased PoPs, around 15%.
Cooler temperatures are expected once the trough and associated cold
front move through Saturday night. However, there is a definite
chance (~40%) that the ridge will remain in place and prevent the
trough from impacting us. If this occurs, the warm dry weather will
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Both KGLD and KMCK terminals will continue to see VFR
conditions through the forecast period. Winds for KGLD,
will become northeast around 10kts this morning then veer
southeast to southerly by the end of the period. Winds for
KMCK will be light and variable through 00Z this evening before
becoming southeasterly to southerly at ~5 kts for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KMK