911
FXUS63 KGLD 072135
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
235 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another night of freezing fog, perhaps dense is forecast
  tonight mainly along and east of Highway 83.

- Breezy northerly winds gusting 40 to 50 mph during the morning
  hours Saturday before slowly decreasing through the
  afternoon.

- 20%-30% chance for light snow showers along/north of the
  KS/NE border Saturday night-Sunday morning with little if any
  accumulation expected.

- Increasing chances for much colder temperatures and light
  snowfall Monday night through Wednesday.

- Dangerously cold wind chills below zero Monday night, Tuesday
  night and Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1252 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

One area of fog and stratus erodes and the next round moves in. The
eroding fog and stratus across eastern Colorado does look to impact
the high temperatures across the western portion of the area so have
lowered high temperatures. Further to the east the next round of
stratus is moving in which is considerably early according to
guidance. This will be the main focus through the evening will be to
see how dewpoint depressions react as the sun sets as the
current expectation is that there will be a struggle for
temperatures to fall to much as we already have the low stratus
in place. There will again be some weak moisture advection with
dew points rising into the mid to upper 20s. There was some
consideration given to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for Gove,
Graham and Sheridan counties this evening but with the concern
about the dew point depression my confidence in a long duration
dense fog event is only around 30% at this time. I do think
there will be periods of dense fog (50%) in the counties that
was considered but again given the concerns about how long and
the coverage should it develop, opted to hold off on headlines
at this time.

A cold front is forecast to move through the area overnight which
will shunt any fog and stratus out of the area. As cold fronts
typically do have the tendency to move through a little quicker
than what guidance suggests was another reason to hold off of
the Advisory. The front is forecast to be a dry front but the
main story with this does appear to be the wind. Very strong
pressure rises ranging from 7 to 11mb over three hours is seen
via the GFS, NAM and RAP so have increased the wind gust
potential with this to around the 40 to 50 mph range. The front
looks to move through around 2-4am MT and is currently situated
across central South Dakota at this time. The windiest
conditions look to occur along and south of a Norton to Cheyenne
Wells line around mid morning and then will decline through the
remainder of the day. During the day Saturday I did add in a
couple areas of flurries as well as there does appear to be some
subtle lift, weak mid level moisture and ice in the clouds. Not
anticipating anything like what occurred earlier in the week
with an unanticipated couple tenths of snow accumulation as
there doesn`t appear to be any surface based CAPE present to
support this and there is drier air at the surface as well which
makes me think that flurries would be the most likely outcome.
High temperatures were also nudged down a few more degrees due
to the better signal for cloud cover and continued cold air
advection into the area.

Saturday night, a slightly better potential for light snow remains
for northern portions of the area. I continue to see a dry layer
near the surface which is keeping me from going higher on pops. Due
to the higher elevation across the northwest portions of the area
this may be enough to overcome some of those concerns so am leaving
those areas in a 25-30% chance and rapidly declining the
further south you go. At this time light accumulation less than
a half inch is currently forecast with minimal if any impacts
currently seen.

Sunday will continue to see southeast flow across the area keeping
cloudy skies in place for the majority of the day before ending west
to east as some drier air associated with some subtle surface
troughing moves in. High temperatures are currently forecast in the
upper 30s to low 40s but if the cloud cover can linger longer than
currently forecast then high temperatures may be to warm as 850mb
temperatures remain around -1C.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

Focus continues to be on the Arctic air and light snow which
will impact the area Monday night through Thursday morning.
After highs in the 30s Monday afternoon, temperatures will fall
into the single digits behind the Arctic front Monday night.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be the coldest days of the period with
highs in the teens and lows in the single digits above/below
zero. Wind chills will generally be in the 10 to 15 below range
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with a low probability
(around 20%) of meeting wind chill criteria (15 below) for an
advisory. The Arctic air will try to move out Thursday and
Friday with temperatures closer to normal, though model spread
remains quite high both days with regards to temperatures.

Snow chances begin Monday afternoon across southwest Nebraska
and Monday evening in the rest of the area. There appears to be
two general rounds of snow. The first Monday night through
Tuesday morning with the front and a northern stream shortwave,
then the second Tuesday night through much of Wednesday with a
second shortwave moving across the Rockies. May see a brief
break between the systems Tuesday afternoon. Each system has the
potential to bring a few inches of light snow, with the second
round perhaps slightly more than the first with better dynamics
from a stronger shortwave which moves directly over the area.
Total amounts across the area from both systems currently run in
the 3-6 inch range (model average) with impacts mitigated
somewhat by the extended time frame in which it falls. Still not
seeing much in the way of wind with this event. Snow begins to
wind down Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Thursday
appears dry at this time.

There could be another system sneaking in Friday night with
another round of light snow. Models generally show less than
one inch with it, but there is considerable spread, so
confidence is low at this time on any potential impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

Stratus this afternoon eroded before making it to the KMCK
terminal but with it still lingering a county east and county
south will maintain a FEW025. For KMCK through the evening
confidence has increased a little regarding IFR visibilities
and ceilings impacting the terminal. The question will be how
long will it last as a cold front moves across the area
overnight. If the fog can persist then dense fog is possible
along with some icing due to freezing fog. KGLD at this time is
not forecasted to see any fog or stratus concerns at this time.

As the cold front sweeps through winds will become northerly and
breezy to gusty. Confidence has also increased in stronger wind
potential with the stronger winds currently favoring KGLD where
gusts around 40 knots is possible. Winds will persist through
the morning Saturday before slowly waning. A period of flurries
or light snow is possible through the morning hours (mainly
after 14Z) for KGLD but not anticipating and flight category
impacts. Confidence in the flurries or light snow is around 10%
at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg