230
FXUS63 KGLD 302329
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
529 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler highs today due to cloud cover most of the day.

- Hot weather returns Monday behind a warm front with highs
  returning to the low 100s east of the Colorado border.

- Chances for storms each day, mainly during the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Across the region this afternoon, skies are a wide mix of sunny to
cloudy as many locales still seeing lingering low cloud cover from
this morning. Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging mainly in
the lower and mid 60s east where clouds are most prevalent, to the
upper 60s and into the 70s where sunshine has finally broke through
due to dissipating clouds. With a front to the west and high
pressure east, winds remain southerly with a tight gradient in the
west closest to the front and associated low, with gusts still 25-35
mph at times.

Main weather concerns in the short term period will focus on the
return of hot conditions, mainly Monday, along with the chances for
strong to severe storms later today and again on Monday and Tuesday.

For this afternoon into the evening hours, the front to the west
will be the focus of trw initiation via the latest CAMs (HRRR, RAP
and NamNest). There are some timing differences between the 3 models
but overall around the 23z-01z timeframe will start west pushing
east ahead of the front through 06z Monday before tapering off. SPC
has a Marginal Risk for storms in place for this afternoon and
tonight along/west of Highway 27. Model soundings do show
instability over the first few hours of starting, will taper in time
as activity shifts east. Some locales could see some locally heavy
rainfall this evening per WPC`s latest Day 1 Outlook for Excessive
Rainfall.

Going into Monday, the aforementioned front will lift into the
northern CWA with some lingering precip during the morning. The next
chance for storms will occur around midday as convection initiates
along the front. Hot conditions in the warm sector has prompted a
Heat Advisory for eastern locales, with areas west seeing conditions
variable due to the timing/positioning of cloud cover along the
front. Heat indices for zones along/east of Highway 83 up to the 103-
105, that may be extended later as the cloud cover along the
boundary may slow its advance increasing temps further west.

Along and north of the front, SPC has a Marginal to Slight risk area
for severe storms with mainly hail/wind threat. While a low chance
for any potential tornadoes due to less shear, can`t rule out a land
spout potential for any storms along the front. CAMs shift all
activity east of the CWA by 06z-12z Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the aforementioned front/low will shift south of the
area creating best chances for storms south of the Interstate. Ample
low level moisture will create better storm chances (30-50%) for the
area as easterly flow will aid in storm production. Best instability
will lie along the front to the south, and SPC has a Marginal Risk
area in place for locales along/south of I-40. A slow wavering of
rain/storms moves east along the boundary Tuesday night, tapering
going into Wednesday.

For temps, daytime highs on Monday will range in the mid 90s
west/northwest through the lower 100s east of a line from McCook,
Nebraska southwest to Goodland, Kansas and south to Tribune, Kansas.
Cooler on Tuesday with mid 80s to lower 90s expected.

With the hot temperatures on Monday expected, areas east of a front
and associated increasing cloud cover in the northwest portion of
the CWA, will see heat indices increase into the lower and even mid
100s. The area of focus at this time is most locales along/east of
highway 83 where a Heat Advisory is now in effect.

Overnight lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 60s, giving
way to a wide range Monday night from the upper 50 to mid 60s west
into the upper 60s to lower 70s east. By Tuesday night, mid 50s west
to the mid 60s east are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, show the upper ridge over the
southern portion of the country shifting more eastward and southward
as the week progresses. The arrival of a decent closed low at 500mb
that swings through the northern Plains will keep the flow aloft
mainly zonal. There will be a few weak shortwaves that interact with
weak cold fronts at the surface, that will trigger low chances for
storms potential. Overall a (20-40%) chance on Wednesday, will trend
to (30-40%) Thursday night with some lingering convection Friday
morning (20%). Next chances (20%) will occur over the evening hours
next weekend as a low tracks south over eastern Colorado. The main
concerns other than the low storm chances will be the return to near
to above normal temperatures for much of the extended.

For temps, daytime highs for the extended period will range in the
upper 80s midweek. On Thursday, mid 80s to the lower 90s are
expected, then trending lower on Friday to the lower to mid 80s.
Going into the upcoming weekend, upper 80s to lower 90s on Saturday
give way to lower to mid 90s next Sunday.

Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s
east Wednesday through Friday, then for the weekend, upper 50s to
mid 60s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Low ceilings, and potentially heavy rain, are expected to impact
flight categories at KMCK and KGLD throughout the period,
including down to LIFR. Storms and showers will be moving in
from the west and are expected to impact KGLD around 2Z with any
heavier stuff moving out around 5Z. KMCK`s prime time for
stronger storms look to be between 4-9Z. Strong gusts up around
50 kts could be possible with storms and the outflows they
produce. Light showers and sprinkles are possible throughout the
remainder of the period. For KGLD IFR look to linger until an
hour or two after sunrise, KMCK may get out of IFR ceilings
around 18Z, it depends on how quickly dry winds move into the
area. Near the end of the period, a cold front looks to move in
a bring more storms with it. Some guidance is suggesting patchy
fog around 6Z tonight, but confidence is low this will occur
with any ongoing convection.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ003-004-015-
     016.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...CA