091
FXUS63 KGLD 161732
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1132 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Showers and thunderstorms will develop over portions of the
 area this afternoon, mainly in northwest Kansas and southwest
 Nebraska. A severe storm or two capable of producing large hail
 and damaging winds. There is a less than 5 percent chance of a
 brief tornado occurring as well.

- Some frost may be possible across higher elevations of Kit
  Carson, Cheyenne and Yuma counties Friday morning.

- Freezing (or near-freezing) temperatures are possible across
  portions of the area on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The area has strong synoptic forcing in place today due to being on
the right exit region of 700,500 and 250mb jets and eventually being
on the left entrance region further increasing lift across the area.
Due to the this scattered storms are forecast to continue for
most of the day. Still anticipating a window of strong to severe
storms this afternoon as a corridor of better shear moves into
the area along with steepening mid level lapse rates just ahead
of a cold front. Have tailored the forecast towards the NSSL-WRF
as this has been the only CAM to show any hint of ongoing
convection at this time. Meager CAPE values are forecast to be
in place of 500-750 j/kg but some guidance does have pockets of
1000-1500 j/kg which would be where the relative higher severe
threat would reside with perhaps some transient supercell
characteristics given bulk shear of 50-60 knots in place. Large
hail and damaging winds appear to be the main threats with hail
around quarter size, but perhaps larger if a longer lived
updraft can occur given the strong amounts of shear. As for
winds, currently thinking that gusts of 60-70 mph would be the
most likely given lapse rates of 7-8 c/km which is a bit on the
lower end of what I would like to see for lapse rates but given
the strong jets aloft some of those winds could get mixed down.
There also may be window or two for a brief tornado. The first
would be during the early to mid afternoon in the form of a
landspout along the cold front as it slowly moves to the
southeast. A secondary wind would be between 23-01Z this evening
as the low level jet kicks in and ramps the 0-3 and 0-1 SRH up
in excess of 350 m^2/s^2 assuming storms and any inflow remain
from the warm side of the front. The front is then forecast to
move a bit quicker after sunset which will then undercut any
showers and storms leading them to become more elevated before
eventually dissipating as drier air moves in. As the drier air
moves in clouds will then clear out as overnight lows fall into
the mid 30s across eastern Colorado to the low 50s across the
eastern portions of the area. Wouldn`t be overall surprised at
some frost across western portions of the Yuma, Kit Carson and
Cheyenne counties in Colorado where winds may briefly go light
but westerly allowing for some radiational cooling potential.
Will forego a Frost Advisory due to lack of confidence and
limited coverage of any frost potential.

Friday, a low pressure system continues across the northern Plains
but moves away into the northern Great Lakes region lessening the
influence of it for the area. Some breezy winds gusting 20-30 mph
may still occur during the morning hours for eastern portions of the
forecast area but as a whole think that this period of windy
conditions will come to an end. More stable air is anticipated
in wake of the previous day`s front as well as dry conditions
along with more seasonable conditions are forecast with highs
forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area. A surface
high then moves across the area shifting winds from the north to
the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Friday and Saturday are forecast to have the area remain under
troughing aloft while the main axis swings through the Plains,
clearing the area late Saturday. With the drier air mass in
place, precipitation chances are currently less than 10% both
days. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s and low 70s.

Sunday morning, after the trough axis swings through, a cold
and dry air mass is forecast to move over the area. With
dewpoints in the 20s, there is a chance that the area could have
its first freeze Sunday morning, favoring Eastern Colorado. The
cold air shot is forecast to be short lived as slight ridging
moves in on the back of the front and brings a slightly warmer
air mass. With that, highs should still warm into the 70s
underneath partly cloudy skies.

Going into next week, we are still looking at another trough
moving through around Mon. Ahead of the trough, it is forecast
to develop another system along the Front Range and increase
winds with gusts around 25-35 mph. With dry air still in place,
we may see critical fire weather conditions Monday ahead of the
system with RH around 15% and the stronger winds. Highs are
forecast to be in the 60s.

If the trough moves through on time, both Tue/Wed mornings
would have lows in the 30s again. With this, more freezing
temperatures may impact the area. That being said, the lower
temperatures will favor Eastern Colorado again, potentially
leaving NW Kansas and SW Nebraska above freezing. If the trough
delays more into Tuesday, then Wednesday morning would be the
only near freezing morning. The current forecast favors dry air
remaining in place with no air mass recovery from repeated upper
troughs, keeping precipitation chances below 10%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A line of showers and storms continues to slowly drift to the
east. At this time confidence is higher in these affecting the
MCK terminal with a lower chance for GLD just based on the
current orientation. Around 22-23Z another round of showers and
storms is forecast to develop to the northwest of the GLD
terminal and move slowly to the NNE. These have the potential to
have heavier rainfall and perhaps some hail and wind threat as
well. After the rainfall comes to an end winds will turn to the
north along with the potential for a transient period stratus
just behind a cold front. Any stratus is forecast to be short
lived followed by a clearing trend as drier air moves in.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Trigg