001
FXUS63 KGLD 101641
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1041 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm and severe storm chances continue through the day
  Sunday, with the higher chances during the afternoon and
  evening hours.

- Sunday and Monday are forecast to be a little cooler than
  average with highs around 80 and lows in the 50s.

- Temperatures are forecast to warm through the week, with highs
  approaching 100 late in the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the remainder of the pre-dawn hours, storms are forecast to
slowly push east with the initial upper low continuing to push east
and the surface low shifting slightly to the southeast. For NW
Kansas and SW Nebraska, this means the main storm clusters could
linger until close to sunrise. Thankfully, the instances of severe
weather have been lowering as the available instability continues to
be used and the forcing pulls farther from the area. Still, wind
gusts generally to 70 mph and some large hail up to golf balls in
size will remain possible. Storms will also continue to produce
heavy rainfall with rates around 1-3 inches. With their current
speeds, flooding should remain at nuisance levels.

For the daytime hours, conditions could vary quite a bit thanks to
an upper trough that is visible as of 1am this morning that is
upstream around the UT/WY/CO border. As long as this remains
upstream, we could keep upper support for additional storms to
develop. The potential lingering outflow boundaries and the surface
low forecast to remain near or retrograde into the area into the
day, there should be ample chances for storms. For the morning and
afternoon hours, this is forecast to translate into mostly cloudy
skies with intermittent storms. The good news is that most of the
area should have a fairly low chance for severe weather given the
presence of storms into the night. Still, there would still be a
chance for severe weather with wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to
1.5 inches, especially as daytime heating kicks in.

For the late afternoon and evening hours, as long as we don`t have
widespread and persistent storms during the morning hours, guidance
is suggesting that we should be able to recover enough instability
for severe storms to become a little more likely. With CAPE around
2000 J/KG and shear around 40-50kts, the chance for larger hail
would be higher compared to earlier in the day. That being said,
hodographs are forecast to either be anti-cyclonic or straight, so
supercells and very large hail may not be able to form. Isolated
storms are possible, but the main show is forecast to be another
round of storms moving in from the higher terrain in Colorado. This
could be similar to what we`ve seen recently with a cluster of
storms moving west to east across the area, with supercells
potentially becoming mixed in. With this, all hazards would be
possible. Given the amount of storm activity that is forecast to
occur earlier in the day and the chance that the upper trough and
low shift south, storms may not fire up at all later in the day. The
trend has been shifting more towards storms occurring, but it is
about 60% yes to 40% no at this time. The shift towards storms
occurring seems to stem from the surface low potentially expanding
near the area late in the day.

Once the main line of storm passes the area, there could be a few
straggles on any outflows, but skies should clear a little bit.
Areas that see clearing early in the night could cool to around 50
with the rest of the area in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025

To start the extended period overall synoptic pattern currently
appears to be similar to this weekend but main convective
initiation boundaries look to be shunted to the south as the
region is more in the axis of the upper level trough. Semi
northwest flow then looks to return as another surface high is
forecast to set up across the SW CONUS. Would not be surprised
if daily chances for showers and storms continues with
convection off of the Rockies but the question will be if the
moisture is sufficient enough as this cuts off the monsoonal
moisture feed that has been in place. As the week goes on
troughing then looks to return to the SW CONUS as a surface high
returns to the SE CONUS. This will then return the monsoonal
flow to Colorado bringing some higher confidence in daily
showers and storms as the moisture and humidity back to the
region.

As for temperatures another gradual warming trend is forecast
to occur starting Tuesday with the potential for upper 90s to
triple digits occur towards the end of the new work week. No
signals for gusty or strong synoptic winds is currently seen
either leading me to think that winds that have mainly been
seen thus far this summer will remains with diurnal gusts of
20-30 mph possible each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1037 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Spotty stratus is currently in place across what appears to be
an outflow boundary between the GLD and MCK terminals; at this
time no further impacts to either terminal is anticipated with
this. Monitoring for another round of showers and storms moving
into the area around 00Z. Will maintain the PROB30 for GLD due
to the potential the storms move south of the terminal; GLD
storms may be severe however. MCK storms look to move in between
04-09Z. Some guidance does indicate storms ahead of the main
cluster but confidence is not there to include in this TAF.
Rainfall will exit around 09Z with winds then becoming light and
variable leading to some fog/stratus concerns for each site.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg