711
FXUS63 KGLD 280522
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1022 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic
  cold frontal passage early Sat morning, strongest (30-40 G 55
  mph) between sunrise and noon Sat. A few snow showers may
  accompany the frontal passage early Sat morning (prior to
  sunrise).

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
  on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
  and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
  chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 133 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

Today-Tonight: Pleasant/benign weather for Thanksgiving.
Synoptic subsidence in the wake of an amplifying trough
(downstream over the eastern CONUS) and a modest upper level
ridge approaching from the west will foster light winds, near-
average temps and mostly clear skies.. aside from occasional
bouts of cirrus in NW flow aloft.

Friday: An upper level wave moving ashore the Pacific Northwest
(today) will progress east toward the northern Rockies
(tonight), then abruptly dig SSE toward the central Rockies
(Fri) -- after an interaction with shortwave energy progressing
rapidly S-SSE through British Columbia/Alberta -- fostering the
development of a broad lee cyclone in CO. Southerly low-level
flow / warm advection on the eastern periphery of the developing
cyclone will foster a modest warming trend with highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s, coolest in eastern / lower elevation
portions of the area where a shallow cooler airmass will persist
into the afternoon and low ceilings/stratus may develop beneath
pervasive upper level cloud cover / cirrus.

Friday night-Sat night: Guidance continues to indicate that the
aforementioned upper wave will dig SSE to/near the OK Panhandle
(Fri night).. then rapidly progress east (broad lee cyclone, in
tow) across the Central/Southern Plains on Sat. The progressive
nature of the cyclone and the Tri-State area`s position
relative to the upper wave and cyclone suggests a low overall
potential for precipitation in the NWS Goodland county warning
area. Guidance presently suggests 2 distinct periods in which
light precipitation could develop: [1] light rain prior to the
cold frontal passage Friday evening (~00-06Z Sat) -- as the
upper level wave digs SSE through WY-CO, most likely near the
Tri-State border area and [2] snow/showers coincident with the
cold frontal passage around or shortly before sunrise (~09-12Z)
Saturday -- during a fleeting period of strong low-level
frontogenesis, mainly in southwest NE and adjacent KS border
counties. From a hazardous weather standpoint, strong northerly
winds in the wake of the front are/remain the primary concern.
Strong cold advection and abrupt pressure rises in the wake of
the Arctic front will at least partially coincide with diurnal
heating.. between sunrise and noon Saturday.. when forecast
soundings indicate ~35-45 knot northerly low-level flow will be
present within a shallow (surface to 3,000 ft AGL) mixed layer.
If this is the case, one would expect sustained winds ~30-40 mph
and gusts up to ~55 mph. From a prior experience standpoint, in
the context of an abrupt Arctic cold frontal passage, guidance
generally tends to under-do wind.. at onset, in particular.
Either way, guidance indicates that northerly winds will weaken
during the afternoon and rapidly diminish after sunset Saturday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

Sun-Mon: Long range guidance continues to suggest a potential
for precipitation (snow) associated with a progressive shortwave
traversing the 4-Corners, Rockies and Central/Southern Plains
late Sun into Mon. At this range, confidence in precipitation
coverage, location and amounts cannot be ascertained with much
confidence. Broadly speaking, the progressive nature of the
system suggests relatively low precipitation amounts (sub-
warning criteria).. and the synoptic setup/pattern suggests
light winds.

Tue-Thu: Long range guidance suggests a warming/moderating
trend (Tue) as the Arctic airmass exits the region / drains
downhill to the east and a low-level southerly return flow
pattern ensues -- followed by a cooling trend assoc/w another
cold frontal passage mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1016 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast, but there are
multiple time periods where IFR conditions may also come into
play. Through the first six hours, VFR conditions are likely
with ceilings generally above 7000ft and winds roughly from the
southeast around 10 kts. Between 12-18Z, some guidance hints at
the development of a low cloud deck with ceilings around
500-700ft to the west of the terminals. It isn`t clear if this
will form and/or move over the terminals, but keep an eye out
for updates. If these ceilings move over, KGLD will likely have
low ceilings through 21Z while KMCK may have ceilings remain low
through the remainder of the TAF period. Regardless of whether
or not the first batch of lower ceilings forms, low ceilings and
fog are possible after 00Z, especially for KMCK. If the fog and
low ceilings form, the forecast is for ceilings around 200-500ft
with 1/4 to 2 SM visibility in fog. This will be dependent on
how far a surface low moves east and if the area stays in the
wrap around side. In short, keep an eye on conditions while
flying today as conditions could get rough fairly quickly.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK