Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
336
UXUS97 KGJT 021306
SRGGJT
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
706 AM MDT Wednesday, July 2, 2025
This forecast is for Wednesday, July 2, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 76.2 F/24.6 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1478 ft/min (7.5 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 20455 ft MSL (14847 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 96.0 F/36.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0830 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 17615 ft MSL (12006 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 07/03..... Excellent
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:52:41 / 20:43:58 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 51 min 17 sec (891 min 17 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:18:19 MDT... 73.39 degrees
Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 07/02/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15484 ft MSL (9876 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14190 ft MSL (8582 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17064 ft MSL (11456 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -5.7
K index......................... +29.0
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.8 -81.0 200 25 13 3.3 1.8 M M M M M
45000 -56.5 -69.7 210 35 18 5.3 2.9 M M M M M
40000 -48.8 -55.8 215 46 24 3.8 2.1 M M M M M
38000 -46.6 -51.9 210 41 21 3.8 2.1 M M M M M
36000 -44.3 -47.7 205 35 18 3.4 1.9 M M M M M
34000 -39.7 -39.5 200 28 15 8.4 4.6 M M M M M
32000 -34.1 -29.4 195 21 11 8.2 4.5 M M M M M
30000 -29.5 -21.1 195 21 11 7.8 4.3 45.7 114.2 7.6 M M
29000 -27.2 -17.0 200 21 11 7.8 4.3 45.0 112.9 7.2 M M
28000 -24.9 -12.8 200 21 11 7.3 4.0 44.3 111.8 6.7 M M
27000 -22.8 -9.0 200 20 10 7.0 3.8 43.1 109.6 5.8 M M
26000 -20.7 -5.3 200 20 10 7.0 3.9 42.1 107.8 5.0 M M
25000 -18.7 -1.7 200 19 10 7.1 3.9 41.2 106.2 4.3 M M
24000 -16.7 1.9 200 19 10 6.8 3.7 40.1 104.1 3.4 M M
23000 -14.7 5.5 200 20 10 6.8 3.7 39.0 102.1 2.5 M M
22000 -12.7 9.1 200 21 11 6.8 3.7 38.0 100.4 1.6 M M
21000 -10.7 12.7 200 21 11 6.6 3.6 36.8 98.3 0.6 M M
20000 -8.8 16.2 200 22 11 6.6 3.6 35.7 96.3 -0.3 1246 6.3
19500 -7.8 18.0 200 22 11 6.7 3.7 35.2 95.4 -0.8 1202 6.1
19000 -6.9 19.6 200 22 12 6.4 3.5 34.7 94.5 -1.3 1159 5.9
18500 -5.5 22.1 195 21 11 6.3 3.4 33.8 92.8 -2.1 1096 5.6
18000 -4.6 23.7 195 20 11 6.3 3.5 33.2 91.8 -2.7 1054 5.4
17500 -3.7 25.3 195 19 10 6.3 3.5 32.6 90.7 -3.3 1012 5.1
17000 -2.8 27.0 195 17 9 6.4 3.5 32.1 89.7 -3.8 971 4.9
16500 -1.9 28.6 190 16 8 6.8 3.7 31.5 88.8 -4.4 928 4.7
16000 -0.9 30.4 190 14 7 6.7 3.7 31.0 87.9 -4.9 884 4.5
15500 0.1 32.2 190 13 7 7.5 4.1 30.6 87.1 -5.4 839 4.3
15000 1.2 34.2 190 12 6 7.6 4.2 30.2 86.4 -5.8 792 4.0
14500 2.3 36.1 195 11 6 7.6 4.2 29.9 85.8 -6.1 744 3.8
14000 3.4 38.1 205 10 5 7.7 4.2 29.5 85.1 -6.5 696 3.5
13500 4.5 40.1 210 9 5 7.6 4.2 29.2 84.6 -6.9 649 3.3
13000 5.6 42.1 215 8 4 7.5 4.1 28.8 83.9 -7.3 601 3.1
12500 6.7 44.1 220 7 4 7.6 4.2 28.5 83.3 -7.8 554 2.8
12000 7.8 46.0 220 7 3 8.0 4.4 28.2 82.7 -8.1 505 2.6
11500 9.0 48.2 220 6 3 8.1 4.4 27.9 82.2 -8.4 455 2.3
11000 10.0 50.0 220 5 3 5.7 3.1 27.4 81.4 -8.9 411 2.1
10500 10.9 51.6 215 5 3 8.0 4.4 26.8 80.3 -9.5 369 1.9
10250 11.5 52.7 210 5 2 7.6 4.2 26.8 80.2 -9.7 343 1.7
10000 11.9 53.4 210 5 2 5.3 2.9 26.5 79.6 -10.0 323 1.6
9750 12.3 54.1 205 5 2 5.7 3.1 26.1 79.0 -10.3 303 1.5
9500 12.8 55.0 200 5 2 6.2 3.4 25.8 78.5 -10.6 283 1.4
9250 13.2 55.8 200 4 2 6.2 3.4 25.6 78.1 -10.9 261 1.3
9000 13.6 56.5 195 4 2 5.4 3.0 25.3 77.5 -11.3 242 1.2
8750 14.0 57.2 190 4 2 5.8 3.2 24.9 76.9 -11.6 222 1.1
8500 14.4 57.9 185 4 2 5.1 2.8 24.6 76.3 -12.0 203 1.0
8250 14.8 58.6 180 5 2 4.0 2.2 24.2 75.6 -12.4 186 0.9
8000 15.0 59.0 175 5 2 4.2 2.3 23.8 74.8 -12.9 171 0.9
7750 15.3 59.5 175 4 2 4.5 2.5 23.4 74.0 -13.4 154 0.8
7500 15.6 60.1 170 4 2 4.6 2.5 23.0 73.3 -13.8 137 0.7
7250 16.0 60.8 165 4 2 4.8 2.6 22.6 72.7 -14.2 120 0.6
7000 16.3 61.3 160 4 2 4.3 2.3 22.2 71.9 -14.7 103 0.5
6750 16.6 61.9 155 4 2 4.1 2.2 21.8 71.2 -15.2 88 0.4
6500 16.8 62.2 145 4 2 3.7 2.0 21.3 70.4 -15.7 72 0.4
6250 17.1 62.8 135 4 2 2.7 1.5 20.8 69.5 -16.2 58 0.3
6000 17.3 63.1 125 4 2 4.2 2.3 20.3 68.6 -16.8 45 0.2
5750 17.5 63.5 120 3 2 -0.9 -0.5 19.8 67.7 -17.3 31 0.2
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
07/02/2025 at 0900 MDT | 07/02/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +1.2 LI... 0.0 | CAPE... +129.6 LI... -0.8
CINH... -2.7 K Index... +25.5 | CINH... -53.7 K Index... +24.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.7 -82.7 190 18 9 3.7 2.0 | -63.0 -81.4 190 21 11 3.5 1.9
45000 -56.6 -69.9 200 23 12 6.6 3.6 | -56.5 -69.7 200 27 14 5.8 3.2
40000 -47.2 -53.0 210 30 16 4.1 2.3 | -48.0 -54.4 210 32 17 4.4 2.4
38000 -44.7 -48.5 215 25 13 4.1 2.2 | -45.4 -49.7 210 27 14 4.3 2.4
36000 -42.0 -43.6 220 19 10 4.4 2.4 | -42.5 -44.5 215 22 11 4.7 2.6
34000 -38.5 -37.3 220 15 8 5.9 3.3 | -38.8 -37.8 215 18 9 6.2 3.4
32000 -34.9 -30.8 220 11 6 5.8 3.2 | -35.1 -31.2 215 14 7 6.0 3.3
30000 -30.9 -23.6 190 11 6 7.0 3.8 | -30.9 -23.6 195 13 7 7.1 3.9
29000 -28.8 -19.8 175 12 6 7.0 3.8 | -28.8 -19.8 180 14 7 7.1 3.9
28000 -26.7 -16.1 165 14 7 7.4 4.0 | -26.7 -16.1 170 15 8 7.3 4.0
27000 -24.5 -12.1 160 13 7 7.6 4.2 | -24.5 -12.1 170 15 8 7.4 4.1
26000 -22.2 -8.0 155 13 7 7.6 4.2 | -22.3 -8.1 170 14 7 7.4 4.1
25000 -20.0 -4.0 145 12 6 7.7 4.2 | -20.1 -4.2 170 13 7 7.5 4.1
24000 -17.9 -0.2 145 12 6 6.9 3.8 | -17.9 -0.2 170 13 6 7.3 4.0
23000 -15.8 3.6 140 12 6 6.9 3.8 | -15.3 4.5 170 11 6 7.3 4.0
22000 -13.3 8.1 140 11 6 6.7 3.7 | -13.1 8.4 165 11 5 6.8 3.7
21000 -11.3 11.7 135 12 6 6.7 3.7 | -11.1 12.0 155 11 6 6.7 3.7
20000 -9.4 15.1 130 12 6 6.7 3.7 | -9.2 15.4 150 12 6 6.7 3.7
19500 -8.4 16.9 125 12 6 6.8 3.8 | -8.2 17.2 145 13 7 6.8 3.7
19000 -7.3 18.9 120 12 6 7.4 4.1 | -7.1 19.2 140 14 7 7.5 4.1
18500 -6.3 20.7 115 12 6 7.4 4.1 | -6.0 21.2 140 14 7 7.4 4.1
18000 -5.2 22.6 110 13 6 7.5 4.1 | -4.9 23.2 135 15 7 8.0 4.4
17500 -4.1 24.6 100 12 6 7.6 4.1 | -3.7 25.3 135 14 7 8.2 4.5
17000 -3.1 26.4 095 12 6 7.7 4.2 | -2.6 27.3 130 14 7 8.3 4.5
16500 -1.9 28.6 085 12 6 8.0 4.4 | -1.4 29.5 125 13 7 8.5 4.7
16000 -0.8 30.6 080 12 6 8.1 4.4 | -0.1 31.8 125 12 6 8.6 4.7
15500 0.4 32.7 075 12 6 7.7 4.2 | 1.1 34.0 120 12 6 8.2 4.5
15000 1.5 34.7 075 11 6 7.7 4.2 | 2.3 36.1 115 11 6 8.2 4.5
14500 2.6 36.7 070 10 5 7.9 4.3 | 3.4 38.1 110 10 5 8.1 4.4
14000 3.8 38.8 065 9 5 8.0 4.4 | 4.6 40.3 105 9 5 8.0 4.4
13500 5.0 41.0 065 8 4 8.0 4.4 | 5.8 42.4 100 8 4 8.1 4.4
13000 6.1 43.0 060 7 4 7.9 4.3 | 6.9 44.4 100 7 4 8.1 4.5
12500 7.3 45.1 055 5 3 7.9 4.3 | 8.1 46.6 095 5 3 8.2 4.5
12000 8.5 47.3 050 4 2 7.8 4.3 | 9.3 48.7 095 4 2 8.2 4.5
11500 9.6 49.3 045 3 1 7.8 4.3 | 10.5 50.9 090 3 1 8.2 4.5
11000 10.7 51.3 030 1 1 7.4 4.1 | 11.7 53.1 085 2 1 7.5 4.1
10500 11.9 53.4 300 1 0 6.3 3.4 | 12.8 55.0 065 1 0 9.7 5.3
10250 12.3 54.1 270 1 1 6.5 3.6 | 13.6 56.5 030 1 0 10.4 5.7
10000 12.9 55.2 255 1 1 8.2 4.5 | 14.2 57.6 350 1 0 8.1 4.4
9750 13.4 56.1 245 2 1 7.7 4.2 | 14.9 58.8 320 1 0 8.8 4.8
9500 14.0 57.2 240 2 1 7.9 4.3 | 15.5 59.9 305 1 1 8.3 4.6
9250 14.6 58.3 240 3 1 7.7 4.2 | 16.1 61.0 300 1 1 7.9 4.4
9000 15.1 59.2 245 3 1 6.9 3.8 | 16.7 62.1 295 2 1 8.7 4.8
8750 15.6 60.1 235 3 1 6.5 3.6 | 17.4 63.3 290 2 1 9.4 5.2
8500 16.1 61.0 225 3 2 6.6 3.6 | 18.6 65.5 285 2 1 6.9 3.8
8250 17.0 62.6 215 2 1 6.4 3.5 | 19.1 66.4 290 2 1 8.6 4.7
8000 17.5 63.5 200 3 1 7.2 4.0 | 20.0 68.0 290 2 1 11.8 6.5
7750 18.0 64.4 190 3 2 6.4 3.5 | 20.8 69.4 290 2 1 10.1 5.6
7500 18.4 65.1 180 3 2 5.1 2.8 | 21.4 70.5 290 2 1 7.9 4.3
7250 18.8 65.8 170 3 2 5.9 3.2 | 22.0 71.6 290 2 1 8.5 4.7
7000 19.3 66.7 165 3 2 9.6 5.3 | 22.8 73.0 290 2 1 12.7 7.0
6750 20.1 68.2 165 4 2 9.8 5.4 | 23.8 74.8 285 2 1 12.1 6.6
6500 20.7 69.3 155 4 2 8.2 4.5 | 24.6 76.3 290 2 1 10.0 5.5
6250 21.4 70.5 145 4 2 7.8 4.3 | 25.3 77.5 290 3 1 9.7 5.3
6000 22.0 71.6 140 4 2 11.2 6.1 | 26.1 79.0 290 3 1 12.2 6.7
5750 23.2 73.8 145 3 2 21.3 11.7 | 27.4 81.3 290 2 1 24.9 13.7
5500 24.7 76.5 135 3 2 13.8 7.6 | 29.8 85.6 295 3 1 40.7 22.3
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
07/02/2025 at 1500 MDT | 07/02/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +143.9 LI... -0.6 | CAPE... +201.1 LI... -0.9
CINH... -32.7 K Index... +23.3 | CINH... -26.5 K Index... +26.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.8 -81.0 195 24 12 3.2 1.7 | -62.6 -80.7 205 22 11 3.1 1.7
45000 -56.5 -69.7 200 30 16 6.0 3.3 | -56.5 -69.7 210 30 15 5.9 3.2
40000 -47.9 -54.2 210 33 17 3.8 2.1 | -48.1 -54.6 215 33 17 3.6 2.0
38000 -45.4 -49.7 210 30 15 3.7 2.1 | -46.0 -50.8 210 32 16 3.6 2.0
36000 -43.2 -45.8 215 27 14 4.4 2.4 | -43.6 -46.5 205 30 16 4.5 2.5
34000 -39.1 -38.4 210 23 12 6.9 3.8 | -39.1 -38.4 210 26 13 7.6 4.2
32000 -35.0 -31.0 210 19 10 6.6 3.6 | -34.6 -30.3 215 22 11 7.5 4.1
30000 -30.4 -22.7 200 17 9 7.9 4.3 | -29.9 -21.8 215 18 9 7.8 4.3
29000 -28.0 -18.4 195 16 8 7.9 4.3 | -27.6 -17.7 215 16 8 7.8 4.3
28000 -25.6 -14.1 190 16 8 7.2 3.9 | -25.3 -13.5 215 14 7 7.0 3.8
27000 -23.6 -10.5 185 15 8 6.8 3.7 | -23.4 -10.1 200 12 6 6.5 3.6
26000 -21.6 -6.9 175 14 7 6.8 3.8 | -21.5 -6.7 185 10 5 6.5 3.6
25000 -19.6 -3.3 170 13 7 6.9 3.8 | -19.6 -3.3 165 9 5 6.5 3.5
24000 -17.5 0.5 165 12 6 7.3 4.0 | -17.5 0.5 155 10 5 7.0 3.8
23000 -14.8 5.4 160 11 6 7.3 4.0 | -15.0 5.0 150 11 6 7.0 3.9
22000 -12.7 9.1 155 11 5 7.1 3.9 | -12.9 8.8 145 12 6 7.5 4.1
21000 -10.6 12.9 150 11 6 7.0 3.9 | -10.6 12.9 145 13 7 7.7 4.2
20000 -8.5 16.7 140 12 6 7.1 3.9 | -8.4 16.9 140 14 7 7.7 4.2
19500 -7.5 18.5 140 13 6 7.2 3.9 | -7.2 19.0 140 15 8 7.7 4.2
19000 -6.4 20.5 140 13 7 7.7 4.2 | -6.1 21.0 145 14 7 7.9 4.3
18500 -5.2 22.6 135 14 7 7.7 4.2 | -4.9 23.2 145 13 7 7.9 4.3
18000 -4.1 24.6 135 14 7 8.0 4.4 | -3.8 25.2 150 12 6 7.9 4.3
17500 -2.9 26.8 135 14 7 8.0 4.4 | -2.7 27.1 155 10 5 7.9 4.3
17000 -1.7 28.9 135 14 7 8.1 4.4 | -1.5 29.3 160 9 4 8.0 4.4
16500 -0.5 31.1 135 13 7 8.3 4.6 | -0.3 31.5 165 8 4 8.5 4.7
16000 0.7 33.3 135 12 6 8.3 4.6 | 0.9 33.6 170 7 4 8.5 4.6
15500 1.9 35.4 135 10 5 8.5 4.7 | 2.2 36.0 180 7 3 9.0 4.9
15000 3.1 37.6 140 9 5 8.5 4.7 | 3.5 38.3 180 6 3 9.0 5.0
14500 4.4 39.9 145 8 4 8.9 4.9 | 4.8 40.6 185 6 3 9.1 5.0
14000 5.7 42.3 145 7 4 9.2 5.0 | 6.2 43.2 190 6 3 9.1 5.0
13500 7.0 44.6 150 7 3 9.1 5.0 | 7.5 45.5 195 6 3 9.1 5.0
13000 8.4 47.1 155 6 3 9.1 5.0 | 8.9 48.0 200 6 3 9.3 5.1
12500 9.7 49.5 160 5 3 9.1 5.0 | 10.2 50.4 200 6 3 9.3 5.1
12000 11.1 52.0 165 5 2 9.2 5.0 | 11.6 52.9 205 6 3 9.3 5.1
11500 12.4 54.3 170 4 2 9.2 5.1 | 13.0 55.4 210 6 3 9.5 5.2
11000 13.6 56.5 175 4 2 7.7 4.2 | 14.2 57.6 215 6 3 7.7 4.2
10500 14.8 58.6 190 3 2 10.9 6.0 | 15.3 59.5 220 6 3 10.7 5.9
10250 15.7 60.3 200 3 2 11.9 6.5 | 16.3 61.3 215 6 3 12.5 6.9
10000 16.4 61.5 205 3 2 8.5 4.7 | 17.1 62.8 220 6 3 9.3 5.1
9750 17.1 62.8 215 3 2 9.4 5.2 | 17.8 64.0 220 6 3 9.4 5.2
9500 17.8 64.0 220 3 2 9.1 5.0 | 18.5 65.3 220 6 3 9.6 5.3
9250 18.4 65.1 230 3 2 8.1 4.5 | 19.2 66.6 220 6 3 8.6 4.7
9000 19.0 66.2 230 3 2 9.0 5.0 | 19.8 67.6 225 6 3 9.0 4.9
8750 19.8 67.6 235 4 2 10.4 5.7 | 20.5 68.9 225 6 3 10.3 5.7
8500 20.5 68.9 240 4 2 10.2 5.6 | 22.0 71.6 220 6 3 9.8 5.4
8250 21.9 71.4 245 4 2 9.3 5.1 | 22.7 72.9 230 6 3 9.8 5.4
8000 22.6 72.7 245 4 2 10.7 5.9 | 23.5 74.3 230 6 3 10.0 5.5
7750 23.4 74.1 245 5 2 10.1 5.5 | 24.2 75.6 225 6 3 10.1 5.5
7500 24.1 75.4 250 5 3 8.5 4.7 | 24.9 76.8 225 6 3 8.6 4.7
7250 24.7 76.5 250 5 3 8.7 4.8 | 25.5 77.9 230 6 3 8.5 4.7
7000 25.5 77.9 250 5 3 11.1 6.1 | 26.3 79.3 230 6 3 10.5 5.8
6750 26.3 79.3 250 5 3 11.5 6.3 | 27.1 80.8 225 6 3 10.9 6.0
6500 27.1 80.8 250 5 3 10.8 5.9 | 27.9 82.2 225 6 3 10.4 5.7
6250 28.0 82.4 255 5 3 11.2 6.2 | 28.6 83.5 230 6 3 10.8 5.9
6000 28.7 83.7 255 5 3 8.5 4.7 | 29.4 84.9 235 5 3 7.7 4.2
5750 29.4 84.9 250 5 3 15.0 8.2 | 29.9 85.8 225 5 3 10.3 5.7
5500 32.5 90.5 260 5 3 86.4 47.4 | 32.2 90.0 230 4 2 66.2 36.3
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado. Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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