Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
025
UXUS97 KGJT 091306
SRGGJT
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
606 AM MST Thursday, January 9, 2025
This forecast is for Thursday, January 9, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 35.9 F/2.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 388 ft/min (2.0 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 10158 ft MSL (5319 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 38.0 F/3.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1200 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5313 ft MSL (474 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 01/10....... Fair
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:33:14 / 17:09:42 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 36 min 29 sec (576 min 29 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:21:28 MST... 28.70 degrees
Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 01/09/2025 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 10875 ft MSL (6036 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10511 ft MSL (5671 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +8.3
K index......................... +7.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -51.4 -60.5 325 52 27 2.4 1.3 115.9 240.6 64.2 M M
45000 -48.7 -55.7 345 23 12 -2.2 -1.2 95.5 204.0 56.1 M M
40000 -45.2 -49.4 010 32 17 2.4 1.3 77.9 172.3 48.5 M M
38000 -44.3 -47.7 355 47 24 1.9 1.0 70.3 158.6 44.6 M M
36000 -43.0 -45.4 350 48 24 2.4 1.3 63.7 146.6 41.2 M M
34000 -42.3 -44.1 010 41 21 -2.1 -1.2 55.3 131.5 36.5 M M
32000 -42.9 -45.2 360 37 19 5.3 2.9 46.0 114.9 30.8 M M
30000 -42.5 -44.5 360 33 17 3.0 1.6 38.6 101.5 26.1 M M
29000 -41.0 -41.8 005 34 18 5.1 2.8 36.6 97.9 24.9 M M
28000 -39.5 -39.1 360 30 16 6.3 3.5 34.7 94.5 23.8 M M
27000 -40.1 -40.2 005 24 12 0.7 0.4 30.2 86.3 20.6 M M
26000 -38.1 -36.6 345 18 9 6.9 3.8 29.0 84.2 19.9 M M
25000 -36.9 -34.4 040 13 7 -7.4 -4.1 26.8 80.2 18.4 M M
24000 -39.5 -39.1 030 17 9 1.8 1.0 19.7 67.5 13.1 M M
23000 -37.4 -35.3 040 12 6 5.3 2.9 18.8 65.8 12.5 M M
22000 -36.6 -33.9 075 10 5 9.4 5.2 16.2 61.2 10.5 M M
21000 -34.1 -29.4 060 9 5 8.1 4.4 15.7 60.3 10.2 M M
20000 -31.6 -24.9 020 16 8 8.1 4.4 15.1 59.2 9.8 M M
19500 -30.4 -22.7 025 21 11 8.1 4.4 14.8 58.6 9.6 M M
19000 -28.8 -19.8 020 28 14 6.8 3.7 14.2 57.5 9.2 M M
18500 -27.7 -17.9 020 28 14 6.9 3.8 13.7 56.6 8.8 M M
18000 -26.8 -16.2 030 28 15 7.3 4.0 13.0 55.5 8.3 M M
17500 -25.5 -13.9 035 31 16 8.6 4.7 12.9 55.3 8.2 M M
17000 -24.3 -11.7 035 32 17 7.8 4.3 12.6 54.7 8.0 M M
16500 -23.1 -9.6 030 29 15 8.0 4.4 12.3 54.2 7.8 M M
16000 -22.0 -7.6 030 34 18 6.4 3.5 11.9 53.4 7.4 M M
15500 -21.0 -5.8 035 36 18 8.0 4.4 11.4 52.5 7.0 M M
15000 -19.7 -3.5 040 37 19 8.5 4.7 11.2 52.1 6.9 M M
14500 -18.6 -1.5 040 37 19 4.3 2.3 10.8 51.4 6.5 M M
14000 -18.3 -0.9 035 37 19 2.6 1.4 9.6 49.3 5.5 M M
13500 -17.9 -0.2 030 37 19 2.5 1.4 8.4 47.1 4.4 M M
13000 -17.5 0.5 035 38 20 2.6 1.4 7.2 45.0 3.3 M M
12500 -17.2 1.0 040 40 20 3.7 2.0 6.0 42.8 2.3 M M
12000 -16.3 2.7 040 42 22 7.0 3.9 5.4 41.8 1.7 M M
11500 -15.2 4.6 040 39 20 7.9 4.3 5.0 41.0 1.3 M M
11000 -14.0 6.8 040 39 20 8.1 4.5 4.8 40.6 1.1 M M
10500 -13.1 8.4 030 35 18 4.4 2.4 4.2 39.5 0.5 M M
10250 -12.7 9.1 030 32 16 5.0 2.8 3.8 38.8 0.2 M M
10000 -12.4 9.7 025 28 14 4.3 2.4 3.4 38.1 -0.2 377 1.9
9750 -12.1 10.2 025 30 15 4.9 2.7 3.0 37.3 -0.6 360 1.8
9500 -11.6 11.1 025 28 14 7.8 4.3 2.7 36.8 -0.9 339 1.7
9250 -10.9 12.4 030 28 14 8.8 4.8 2.6 36.7 -1.0 312 1.6
9000 -10.3 13.5 025 27 14 8.5 4.7 2.5 36.6 -1.1 285 1.4
8750 -9.7 14.5 020 25 13 8.6 4.7 2.5 36.4 -1.1 259 1.3
8500 -9.0 15.8 015 23 12 8.6 4.7 2.4 36.3 -1.2 232 1.2
8250 -8.4 16.9 015 20 11 8.6 4.7 2.3 36.1 -1.3 206 1.0
8000 -7.7 18.1 020 18 9 8.6 4.7 2.2 36.0 -1.4 179 0.9
7750 -7.1 19.2 020 17 9 8.6 4.7 2.1 35.8 -1.5 152 0.8
7500 -6.5 20.3 025 15 8 8.6 4.7 2.0 35.6 -1.6 126 0.6
7250 -5.8 21.6 025 13 7 8.6 4.7 1.9 35.5 -1.7 99 0.5
7000 -5.2 22.6 030 11 6 8.6 4.7 1.8 35.3 -1.8 72 0.4
6750 -4.5 23.9 030 10 5 8.6 4.7 1.7 35.1 -1.9 46 0.2
6500 -3.9 25.0 025 7 4 8.6 4.7 1.6 35.0 -2.0 19 0.1
6250 -3.3 26.1 020 6 3 8.6 4.7 1.5 34.8 -2.1 M M
6000 -2.6 27.3 010 5 3 8.6 4.7 1.4 34.6 -2.2 M M
5750 -1.9 28.6 345 6 3 9.8 5.4 1.4 34.5 -2.3 M M
5500 -1.3 29.7 300 8 4 6.9 3.8 1.4 34.4 -2.3 M M
5250 -1.1 30.0 290 10 5 -2.1 -1.2 0.8 33.4 -2.9 M M
5000 -1.5 29.3 305 8 4 -7.2 -3.9 -0.3 31.4 -4.1 M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
01/09/2025 at 0800 MST | 01/09/2025 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.0 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.1
CINH... -0.0 K Index... +8.3 | CINH... -0.3 K Index... +5.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -53.3 -63.9 330 24 12 3.4 1.9 | -53.1 -63.6 330 26 13 2.9 1.6
45000 -47.9 -54.2 320 32 16 2.5 1.4 | -48.5 -55.3 340 37 19 2.6 1.4
40000 -45.2 -49.4 350 39 20 1.8 1.0 | -45.5 -49.9 350 40 21 2.0 1.1
38000 -44.3 -47.7 360 44 23 0.8 0.5 | -44.6 -48.3 355 43 22 0.9 0.5
36000 -43.8 -46.8 005 49 25 0.8 0.5 | -44.1 -47.4 005 52 27 0.8 0.5
34000 -43.3 -45.9 005 55 28 0.8 0.4 | -43.5 -46.3 015 63 33 0.9 0.5
32000 -42.4 -44.3 005 54 28 1.6 0.9 | -42.6 -44.7 015 62 32 1.6 0.9
30000 -41.5 -42.7 005 53 27 1.6 0.9 | -41.6 -42.9 010 59 31 1.7 0.9
29000 -41.1 -42.0 005 51 26 1.0 0.6 | -41.3 -42.3 015 56 29 0.8 0.4
28000 -40.8 -41.4 005 47 24 1.0 0.5 | -41.1 -42.0 015 52 27 0.8 0.4
27000 -40.5 -40.9 010 44 22 1.0 0.5 | -40.8 -41.4 015 49 25 0.8 0.4
26000 -40.2 -40.4 010 39 20 0.2 0.1 | -40.6 -41.1 015 44 23 0.6 0.3
25000 -40.2 -40.4 015 31 16 0.3 0.1 | -40.4 -40.7 015 36 19 0.6 0.3
24000 -40.1 -40.2 020 23 12 0.3 0.2 | -40.3 -40.5 020 29 15 0.6 0.3
23000 -39.3 -38.7 030 18 9 7.7 4.2 | -39.7 -39.5 020 22 12 7.0 3.8
22000 -37.2 -35.0 030 19 10 7.2 3.9 | -37.6 -35.7 025 22 12 7.0 3.8
21000 -35.0 -31.0 035 20 10 7.1 3.9 | -35.0 -31.0 030 23 12 6.9 3.8
20000 -32.7 -26.9 035 22 11 8.1 4.4 | -32.8 -27.0 035 23 12 7.8 4.3
19500 -31.5 -24.7 035 22 11 8.1 4.4 | -31.6 -24.9 035 24 12 7.8 4.3
19000 -30.3 -22.5 035 23 12 8.1 4.4 | -30.4 -22.7 035 25 13 7.8 4.3
18500 -29.1 -20.4 035 24 12 8.1 4.4 | -29.3 -20.7 035 25 13 7.8 4.3
18000 -27.9 -18.2 035 24 13 7.8 4.3 | -28.1 -18.6 035 25 13 7.9 4.4
17500 -26.8 -16.2 040 25 13 7.7 4.2 | -26.9 -16.4 035 26 13 7.9 4.4
17000 -25.6 -14.1 040 25 13 7.5 4.1 | -25.8 -14.4 035 26 13 7.8 4.3
16500 -24.5 -12.1 040 25 13 7.3 4.0 | -24.6 -12.3 040 26 13 7.8 4.3
16000 -23.4 -10.1 040 25 13 7.3 4.0 | -23.4 -10.1 040 26 13 7.6 4.2
15500 -22.4 -8.3 045 26 13 7.2 3.9 | -22.3 -8.1 040 26 13 7.3 4.0
15000 -21.3 -6.3 045 27 14 7.2 3.9 | -21.3 -6.3 040 25 13 7.3 4.0
14500 -20.2 -4.4 050 28 14 7.3 4.0 | -20.2 -4.4 045 25 13 7.1 3.9
14000 -19.1 -2.4 050 29 15 7.3 4.0 | -19.1 -2.4 045 25 13 7.1 3.9
13500 -18.1 -0.6 050 30 16 6.6 3.6 | -18.1 -0.6 045 25 13 6.5 3.6
13000 -17.1 1.2 050 32 16 6.7 3.7 | -17.2 1.0 050 25 13 6.6 3.6
12500 -16.2 2.8 050 33 17 6.0 3.3 | -16.2 2.8 050 25 13 6.1 3.3
12000 -15.3 4.5 050 35 18 6.0 3.3 | -15.3 4.5 050 26 13 6.2 3.4
11500 -14.4 6.1 050 36 18 5.7 3.1 | -14.5 5.9 050 27 14 5.5 3.0
11000 -13.6 7.5 050 37 19 5.7 3.1 | -13.6 7.5 050 27 14 5.5 3.0
10500 -12.7 9.1 050 37 19 5.9 3.2 | -12.9 8.8 050 28 14 5.2 2.9
10250 -12.3 9.9 050 37 19 5.9 3.3 | -12.5 9.5 050 28 15 5.0 2.8
10000 -11.8 10.8 050 37 19 5.8 3.2 | -12.1 10.2 050 29 15 5.8 3.2
9750 -11.4 11.5 050 37 19 5.7 3.1 | -11.6 11.1 050 29 15 6.2 3.4
9500 -11.0 12.2 045 36 19 6.1 3.3 | -11.2 11.8 050 30 15 5.7 3.2
9250 -10.1 13.8 045 34 17 7.9 4.3 | -10.8 12.6 050 30 15 5.5 3.0
9000 -9.4 15.1 045 35 18 7.5 4.1 | -10.3 13.5 050 30 15 7.1 3.9
8750 -9.1 15.6 045 34 17 4.5 2.5 | -9.8 14.4 050 30 15 6.9 3.8
8500 -8.7 16.3 040 32 17 5.1 2.8 | -9.4 15.1 050 28 14 5.0 2.7
8250 -8.3 17.1 040 32 16 5.3 2.9 | -9.0 15.8 045 27 14 5.9 3.2
8000 -7.9 17.8 035 33 17 5.4 3.0 | -8.0 17.6 040 25 13 8.1 4.4
7750 -7.5 18.5 035 31 16 4.9 2.7 | -7.3 18.9 040 24 12 9.8 5.4
7500 -7.1 19.2 030 28 15 5.6 3.1 | -6.6 20.1 035 23 12 8.4 4.6
7250 -6.7 19.9 030 28 14 6.0 3.3 | -6.1 21.0 035 23 12 6.3 3.4
7000 -6.2 20.8 030 28 14 6.7 3.7 | -5.6 21.9 035 23 12 9.7 5.3
6750 -5.7 21.7 030 23 12 7.7 4.2 | -4.7 23.5 035 21 11 11.8 6.5
6500 -5.1 22.8 025 19 10 7.4 4.0 | -3.9 25.0 035 20 10 10.1 5.5
6250 -4.6 23.7 025 17 9 7.8 4.3 | -3.2 26.2 035 19 10 9.7 5.3
6000 -4.0 24.8 025 14 7 6.0 3.3 | -2.4 27.7 035 19 10 11.1 6.1
5750 -3.8 25.2 020 10 5 0.5 0.3 | -1.4 29.5 030 16 8 16.8 9.2
5500 -3.7 25.3 010 6 3 4.3 2.4 | 0.1 32.2 030 14 7 21.9 12.0
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
01/09/2025 at 1400 MST | 01/09/2025 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... +0.5 LI... +4.1 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.0
CINH... -0.2 K Index... +4.2 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -1.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -53.5 -64.3 325 30 15 2.9 1.6 | -54.0 -65.2 340 37 19 3.0 1.7
45000 -49.2 -56.6 345 40 21 2.9 1.6 | -49.5 -57.1 350 46 24 3.0 1.6
40000 -46.1 -51.0 360 52 27 1.9 1.0 | -47.0 -52.6 005 62 32 1.5 0.8
38000 -45.3 -49.5 005 58 30 0.4 0.2 | -46.4 -51.5 010 72 37 0.1 0.1
36000 -45.0 -49.0 010 65 34 0.4 0.2 | -46.4 -51.5 010 88 45 0.1 0.1
34000 -44.8 -48.6 010 73 38 0.3 0.1 | -46.3 -51.3 015 103 53 0.2 0.1
32000 -43.8 -46.8 015 77 40 1.9 1.0 | -45.1 -49.2 015 107 55 2.2 1.2
30000 -42.7 -44.9 015 80 41 1.8 1.0 | -43.7 -46.7 020 110 57 1.9 1.0
29000 -41.9 -43.4 015 78 40 2.8 1.5 | -42.3 -44.1 020 112 57 5.8 3.2
28000 -41.1 -42.0 015 73 38 2.8 1.5 | -40.6 -41.1 020 113 58 5.7 3.1
27000 -40.3 -40.5 020 68 35 2.8 1.5 | -38.8 -37.8 025 114 59 5.7 3.1
26000 -39.4 -38.9 020 60 31 1.3 0.7 | -37.1 -34.8 025 107 55 3.2 1.8
25000 -39.0 -38.2 020 49 25 1.3 0.7 | -36.1 -33.0 025 94 48 3.2 1.7
24000 -38.6 -37.5 020 38 19 1.4 0.7 | -35.2 -31.4 025 81 41 3.1 1.7
23000 -37.8 -36.0 020 29 15 5.4 3.0 | -34.5 -30.1 025 66 34 1.5 0.8
22000 -36.2 -33.2 020 25 13 5.2 2.9 | -34.0 -29.2 020 51 26 1.5 0.8
21000 -34.7 -30.5 025 21 11 5.1 2.8 | -33.5 -28.3 020 36 18 1.1 0.6
20000 -32.7 -26.9 025 20 10 7.3 4.0 | -32.2 -26.0 020 27 14 5.8 3.2
19500 -31.6 -24.9 025 20 10 7.3 4.0 | -31.4 -24.5 020 25 13 5.8 3.2
19000 -30.5 -22.9 030 20 10 7.3 4.0 | -30.5 -22.9 020 23 12 5.8 3.2
18500 -29.4 -20.9 030 20 10 7.3 4.0 | -29.6 -21.3 020 20 10 5.6 3.1
18000 -28.3 -18.9 030 20 10 7.9 4.3 | -28.6 -19.5 020 19 10 7.8 4.3
17500 -27.1 -16.8 030 21 11 7.9 4.3 | -27.5 -17.5 025 19 10 7.7 4.2
17000 -26.0 -14.8 030 21 11 7.9 4.3 | -26.3 -15.3 025 19 10 7.7 4.2
16500 -24.8 -12.6 035 21 11 7.8 4.3 | -25.2 -13.4 030 20 10 7.7 4.2
16000 -23.6 -10.5 035 22 11 7.7 4.2 | -24.0 -11.2 030 20 10 7.6 4.2
15500 -22.5 -8.5 035 23 12 7.2 3.9 | -22.9 -9.2 035 21 11 7.2 4.0
15000 -21.5 -6.7 035 23 12 7.2 4.0 | -21.9 -7.4 035 23 12 7.2 3.9
14500 -20.4 -4.7 035 24 12 6.6 3.6 | -20.9 -5.6 035 24 12 6.3 3.5
14000 -19.4 -2.9 040 25 13 6.8 3.7 | -19.9 -3.8 040 24 13 6.4 3.5
13500 -18.5 -1.3 040 25 13 5.7 3.1 | -19.0 -2.2 040 25 13 5.9 3.2
13000 -17.7 0.1 040 25 13 5.9 3.2 | -18.1 -0.6 040 24 12 5.9 3.2
12500 -16.9 1.6 040 25 13 4.8 2.7 | -17.2 1.0 045 23 12 6.2 3.4
12000 -16.1 3.0 040 24 12 4.8 2.6 | -16.3 2.7 045 21 11 6.1 3.4
11500 -15.3 4.5 045 24 12 6.2 3.4 | -15.3 4.5 045 21 11 7.6 4.2
11000 -14.4 6.1 045 25 13 6.1 3.4 | -14.2 6.4 045 22 11 7.4 4.1
10500 -13.4 7.9 045 26 13 7.6 4.1 | -13.1 8.4 045 24 12 7.3 4.0
10250 -12.8 9.0 045 26 14 7.4 4.1 | -12.6 9.3 045 25 13 7.3 4.0
10000 -12.3 9.9 045 27 14 7.4 4.1 | -12.0 10.4 045 26 13 7.5 4.1
9750 -11.7 10.9 045 26 14 7.3 4.0 | -11.4 11.5 045 26 13 7.6 4.1
9500 -11.2 11.8 045 26 14 7.5 4.1 | -10.9 12.4 045 27 14 7.6 4.2
9250 -10.6 12.9 040 26 14 6.8 3.7 | -10.3 13.5 040 27 14 7.2 3.9
9000 -9.3 15.3 040 26 13 9.9 5.4 | -9.8 14.4 040 28 14 9.8 5.4
8750 -8.7 16.3 035 26 13 7.7 4.2 | -8.5 16.7 035 28 15 5.5 3.0
8500 -8.1 17.4 035 26 13 8.4 4.6 | -8.0 17.6 030 29 15 6.9 3.8
8250 -7.5 18.5 035 26 13 8.2 4.5 | -7.5 18.5 030 30 15 7.7 4.2
8000 -6.8 19.8 035 25 13 9.5 5.2 | -6.9 19.6 030 30 16 8.0 4.4
7750 -6.0 21.2 035 25 13 11.0 6.1 | -6.3 20.7 030 29 15 7.9 4.3
7500 -5.2 22.6 030 24 13 9.4 5.2 | -5.7 21.7 025 28 14 8.0 4.4
7250 -4.6 23.7 030 25 13 7.2 4.0 | -5.1 22.8 025 29 15 7.7 4.2
7000 -4.0 24.8 030 25 13 10.1 5.5 | -4.6 23.7 025 29 15 8.5 4.7
6750 -3.1 26.4 030 23 12 12.0 6.6 | -3.9 25.0 020 25 13 9.4 5.2
6500 -2.3 27.9 030 23 12 10.6 5.8 | -3.2 26.2 020 24 12 9.1 5.0
6250 -1.5 29.3 030 22 12 10.5 5.7 | -2.5 27.5 020 23 12 9.8 5.4
6000 -0.7 30.7 030 22 11 10.8 6.0 | -1.8 28.8 020 22 11 7.2 3.9
5750 0.2 32.4 025 18 9 15.0 8.2 | -1.5 29.3 015 16 8 1.3 0.7
5500 1.8 35.2 025 16 8 30.0 16.4 | -1.1 30.0 015 13 7 16.4 9.0
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado. Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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