Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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UXUS97 KGJT 011306
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
606 AM MST Monday, December 1, 2025

This forecast is for Monday, December 1, 2025:

If the trigger temperature of 43.1 F/6.2 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 242 ft/min (1.2 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8798 ft MSL (3192 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 40.0 F/4.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7273 ft MSL (1666 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 12/02...... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:14:54 / 16:51:49 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 36 min 55 sec (576 min 55 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:03:22 MST... 28.95 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 12/01/2025 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 20302 ft MSL (14696 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12535 ft MSL (6929 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +16.3
K index......................... +2.9

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -62.3 -80.1   285   33   17  -0.2  -0.1      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -62.6 -80.7   280   47   24   0.1   0.1      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -61.1 -78.0   290   63   33   1.1   0.6      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -59.3 -74.7   290   66   34   5.0   2.7      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -56.3 -69.3   290   65   34   5.0   2.7      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -53.0 -63.4   295   64   33   9.0   4.9      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -47.2 -53.0   290   60   31   8.6   4.7      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -42.1 -43.8   290   57   29   8.3   4.5   33.5  92.3    21.9      M    M
 29000  -39.7 -39.5   290   56   29   8.2   4.5   32.8  91.1    21.6      M    M
 28000  -37.2 -35.0   290   54   28   8.2   4.5   32.3  90.1    21.5      M    M
 27000  -34.7 -30.5   290   53   27   7.8   4.3   31.9  89.4    21.4      M    M
 26000  -32.5 -26.5   290   52   27   7.4   4.1   30.8  87.5    20.8      M    M
 25000  -30.3 -22.5   285   51   26   7.4   4.1   30.0  85.9    20.4      M    M
 24000  -28.1 -18.6   285   50   26   7.5   4.1   29.2  84.6    20.0      M    M
 23000  -25.9 -14.6   285   49   25   7.5   4.1   28.3  82.9    19.4      M    M
 22000  -23.7 -10.7   285   47   24   7.5   4.1   27.5  81.5    18.9      M    M
 21000  -21.5  -6.7   290   46   24   7.3   4.0   26.8  80.2    18.5      M    M
 20000  -19.4  -2.9   290   43   22   7.1   3.9   25.7  78.3    17.9      M    M
 19500  -18.3  -0.9   290   42   22   7.1   3.9   25.3  77.5    17.6      M    M
 19000  -16.7   1.9   290   40   21   7.2   3.9   24.6  76.4    17.1      M    M
 18500  -15.7   3.7   290   39   20   6.6   3.6   24.2  75.6    16.8      M    M
 18000  -14.8   5.4   295   37   19   6.5   3.6   23.6  74.5    16.4      M    M
 17500  -13.8   7.2   295   36   18   6.4   3.5   23.1  73.5    16.0      M    M
 17000  -12.9   8.8   295   35   18   5.8   3.2   22.4  72.4    15.5      M    M
 16500  -12.1  10.2   295   33   17   5.9   3.2   21.8  71.2    14.9      M    M
 16000  -11.3  11.7   300   33   17   5.1   2.8   21.1  69.9    14.4      M    M
 15500  -10.5  13.1   300   32   16   5.1   2.8   20.3  68.5    13.7      M    M
 15000   -9.8  14.4   300   31   16   4.2   2.3   19.5  67.1    13.1      M    M
 14500   -9.3  15.3   295   31   16   3.7   2.0   18.5  65.2    12.2      M    M
 14000   -8.7  16.3   295   31   16   3.4   1.9   17.5  63.5    11.4      M    M
 13500   -8.3  17.1   290   29   15   2.9   1.6   16.4  61.5    10.4      M    M
 13000   -7.8  18.0   290   28   15   2.8   1.5   15.3  59.5     9.5      M    M
 12500   -7.4  18.7   285   26   14   2.3   1.3   14.1  57.3     8.6      M    M
 12000   -6.9  19.6   280   24   13   2.1   1.2   12.9  55.2     7.6      M    M
 11500   -6.7  19.9   275   22   11   0.5   0.3   11.5  52.7     6.4      M    M
 11000   -6.6  20.1   270   20   10   0.8   0.4   10.1  50.1     5.1      M    M
 10500   -6.4  20.5   265   18    9   1.6   0.9    8.7  47.7     3.8      M    M
 10250   -6.3  20.7   260   17    9   1.2   0.7    8.1  46.5     3.2      M    M
 10000   -6.2  20.8   255   16    8   1.9   1.1    7.4  45.3     2.6      M    M
  9750   -6.0  21.2   255   15    8   2.9   1.6    6.8  44.3     2.0      M    M
  9500   -5.8  21.6   250   14    7   3.2   1.8    6.3  43.3     1.5      M    M
  9250   -5.6  21.9   250   13    7   2.2   1.2    5.8  42.4     1.0      M    M
  9000   -5.4  22.3   245   12    6   3.0   1.6    5.2  41.3     0.4      M    M
  8750   -5.1  22.8   245   11    6   4.4   2.4    4.7  40.5     0.0      M    M
  8500   -4.8  23.4   240   10    5   4.4   2.4    4.3  39.7    -0.4    226  1.1
  8250   -4.5  23.9   235    9    5   3.1   1.7    3.9  39.0    -0.8    209  1.1
  8000   -4.4  24.1   225    8    4   2.4   1.3    3.3  37.9    -1.4    197  1.0
  7750   -4.1  24.6   220    7    4   3.3   1.8    2.8  37.0    -1.9    183  0.9
  7500   -3.9  25.0   210    7    3   2.9   1.6    2.3  36.1    -2.4    169  0.9
  7250   -3.7  25.3   200    6    3   4.4   2.4    1.8  35.2    -2.9    154  0.8
  7000   -3.3  26.1   185    7    4   3.9   2.1    1.4  34.6    -3.3    136  0.7
  6750   -3.1  26.4   180    7    4   2.4   1.3    0.9  33.6    -3.8    123  0.6
  6500   -2.9  26.8   175    7    4   1.5   0.8    0.3  32.6    -4.4    110  0.6
  6250   -3.0  26.6   165    7    4  -1.8  -1.0   -0.4  31.2    -5.2    103  0.5
  6000   -3.0  26.6   155    7    4   2.4   1.3   -1.2  29.8    -6.0     98  0.5
  5750   -2.7  27.1   150    7    3   3.9   2.2   -1.6  29.1    -6.4     80  0.4
  5500      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  5250      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  5000      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           12/01/2025 at 0800 MST          |       12/01/2025 at 1100 MST
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +7.6        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...      +10.4
CINH...     0.0    K Index...  -7.4        | CINH...     0.0    K Index... -12.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.6 -73.5  320  28 14   0.0   0.0 | -60.3 -76.5  335  30 15  -0.4  -0.2
 45000 -58.6 -73.5  330  35 18   0.1   0.0 | -60.9 -77.6  340  40 21  -0.5  -0.3
 40000 -56.1 -69.0  005  50 26   1.7   0.9 | -58.4 -73.1  010  64 33   1.7   1.0
 38000 -54.7 -66.5  010  60 31   3.5   1.9 | -56.5 -69.7  010  73 37   5.0   2.7
 36000 -52.6 -62.7  015  73 38   3.5   1.9 | -53.5 -64.3  010  77 40   5.0   2.7
 34000 -50.5 -58.9  020  86 44   4.1   2.3 | -50.4 -58.7  005  81 42   5.8   3.2
 32000 -47.5 -53.5  015  86 44   5.1   2.8 | -46.9 -52.4  005  75 39   6.0   3.3
 30000 -44.5 -48.1  015  85 44   5.6   3.1 | -43.2 -45.8  005  69 36   6.4   3.5
 29000 -42.7 -44.9  015  81 42   6.1   3.3 | -41.3 -42.3  005  67 34   6.4   3.5
 28000 -40.8 -41.4  015  76 39   6.1   3.3 | -39.4 -38.9  010  64 33   6.4   3.5
 27000 -39.0 -38.2  015  72 37   6.1   3.3 | -37.5 -35.5  010  62 32   6.4   3.5
 26000 -37.3 -35.1  010  66 34   5.6   3.1 | -34.8 -30.6  010  59 30   7.3   4.0
 25000 -35.2 -31.4  010  57 29   5.6   3.0 | -32.6 -26.7  010  57 29   7.3   4.0
 24000 -33.5 -28.3  005  51 26   5.5   3.0 | -30.4 -22.7  010  55 28   7.4   4.1
 23000 -31.7 -25.1  005  46 24   6.5   3.6 | -28.4 -19.1  005  52 27   6.5   3.6
 22000 -29.7 -21.5  360  43 22   6.5   3.6 | -26.5 -15.7  005  48 25   6.5   3.6
 21000 -27.8 -18.0  360  40 21   6.3   3.5 | -24.5 -12.1  360  45 23   6.0   3.3
 20000 -26.2 -15.2  355  38 19   4.8   2.6 | -23.0  -9.4  355  41 21   5.0   2.7
 19500 -25.5 -13.9  355  37 19   4.8   2.7 | -22.3  -8.1  355  39 20   5.0   2.7
 19000 -24.8 -12.6  355  35 18   4.8   2.7 | -21.5  -6.7  355  38 19   5.0   2.7
 18500 -24.1 -11.4  350  34 18   4.8   2.7 | -20.8  -5.4  350  36 18   4.9   2.7
 18000 -23.4 -10.1  350  33 17   3.6   1.9 | -20.1  -4.2  350  35 18   4.4   2.4
 17500 -22.9  -9.2  345  31 16   3.6   2.0 | -19.4  -2.9  345  34 17   4.5   2.5
 17000 -22.3  -8.1  345  29 15   4.6   2.5 | -18.9  -2.0  345  33 17   2.6   1.4
 16500 -21.6  -6.9  345  27 14   4.9   2.7 | -18.5  -1.3  340  32 16   2.5   1.4
 16000 -20.9  -5.6  340  25 13   5.3   2.9 | -18.1  -0.6  340  30 16   2.7   1.5
 15500 -20.0  -4.0  340  24 12   5.9   3.3 | -17.7   0.1  335  29 15   2.9   1.6
 15000 -19.1  -2.4  340  22 11   6.1   3.3 | -17.3   0.9  335  27 14   3.2   1.8
 14500 -18.1  -0.6  340  21 11   6.6   3.6 | -16.7   1.9  335  25 13   4.2   2.3
 14000 -17.2   1.0  345  20 10   6.6   3.6 | -16.1   3.0  335  23 12   4.3   2.4
 13500 -16.2   2.8  345  19 10   6.4   3.5 | -15.3   4.5  335  22 11   5.6   3.1
 13000 -15.3   4.5  345  19 10   6.5   3.5 | -14.5   5.9  335  20 10   5.5   3.0
 12500 -14.4   6.1  345  18  9   5.3   2.9 | -13.7   7.3  340  19 10   5.6   3.1
 12000 -13.6   7.5  350  17  9   5.5   3.0 | -12.8   9.0  340  17  9   5.6   3.1
 11500 -12.8   9.0  350  17  9   5.7   3.2 | -12.0  10.4  340  16  8   5.5   3.0
 11000 -11.9  10.6  355  16  8   5.7   3.1 | -11.2  11.8  345  14  7   5.5   3.0
 10500 -11.1  12.0  360  15  8   5.6   3.1 | -10.4  13.3  345  13  7   5.3   2.9
 10250 -10.7  12.7  360  15  8   5.9   3.2 | -10.0  14.0  350  12  6   5.7   3.1
 10000 -10.3  13.5  005  15  8   5.1   2.8 |  -9.6  14.7  350  11  6   4.1   2.3
  9750  -9.9  14.2  005  15  8   5.1   2.8 |  -9.4  15.1  350  11  6   4.2   2.3
  9500  -9.5  14.9  005  15  8   6.1   3.3 |  -9.0  15.8  355  10  5   5.8   3.2
  9250  -9.1  15.6  010  14  7   5.7   3.1 |  -8.6  16.5  360   9  5   5.2   2.9
  9000  -8.6  16.5  010  14  7   6.4   3.5 |  -8.2  17.2  005   9  4   6.4   3.5
  8750  -7.8  18.0  015  13  7   4.1   2.2 |  -7.3  18.9  010   7  4   4.4   2.4
  8500  -7.5  18.5  015  12  6   4.4   2.4 |  -7.0  19.4  020   7  3   4.8   2.6
  8250  -7.2  19.0  020  12  6   4.3   2.4 |  -6.6  20.1  025   6  3   4.4   2.4
  8000  -6.9  19.6  020  11  6   4.6   2.5 |  -6.3  20.7  030   6  3   5.2   2.9
  7750  -6.5  20.3  025  10  5   4.9   2.7 |  -5.9  21.4  040   5  2   6.2   3.4
  7500  -6.1  21.0  025   9  5   4.5   2.5 |  -5.4  22.3  050   4  2   5.6   3.0
  7250  -5.8  21.6  030   9  4   4.0   2.2 |  -5.1  22.8  060   4  2   4.1   2.3
  7000  -5.5  22.1  040   8  4   4.5   2.5 |  -4.7  23.5  065   4  2   7.5   4.1
  6750  -5.1  22.8  040   6  3   5.1   2.8 |  -4.0  24.8  070   3  2  10.4   5.7
  6500  -4.8  23.4  045   5  3   5.0   2.7 |  -3.2  26.2  075   3  2   9.4   5.2
  6250  -4.4  24.1  050   4  2   5.7   3.1 |  -2.5  27.5  080   3  2   9.0   4.9
  6000  -4.0  24.8  060   4  2   3.1   1.7 |  -1.8  28.8  080   3  2  11.0   6.0
  5750  -4.0  24.8  075   2  1  -1.9  -1.0 |  -0.8  30.6  085   3  1  17.1   9.4
  5500  -3.8  25.2  120   1  0  15.8   8.7 |   0.5  32.9  085   3  1  13.8   7.5
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           12/01/2025 at 1400 MST          |       12/01/2025 at 1700 MST
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...      +12.3        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...      +13.0
CINH...     0.0    K Index... -10.1        | CINH...     0.0    K Index...  -7.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -61.9 -79.4  330  27 14  -1.3  -0.7 | -63.0 -81.4  315  28 15  -1.0  -0.5
 45000 -64.0 -83.2  345  39 20   0.4   0.2 | -64.5 -84.1  325  36 19   0.3   0.2
 40000 -58.5 -73.3  360  63 32   3.7   2.0 | -58.8 -73.8  335  59 30   3.9   2.2
 38000 -55.8 -68.4  360  70 36   5.3   2.9 | -56.3 -69.3  340  66 34   4.3   2.4
 36000 -52.6 -62.7  360  74 38   5.3   2.9 | -53.7 -64.7  345  70 36   4.3   2.4
 34000 -49.4 -56.9  360  76 39   5.4   3.0 | -50.6 -59.1  345  72 37   5.7   3.1
 32000 -46.2 -51.2  360  68 35   5.4   2.9 | -47.2 -53.0  350  62 32   5.7   3.1
 30000 -42.9 -45.2  360  60 31   7.1   3.9 | -43.5 -46.3  355  53 27   8.2   4.5
 29000 -40.8 -41.4  360  57 29   6.8   3.8 | -41.0 -41.8  360  50 26   8.2   4.5
 28000 -38.7 -37.7  360  54 28   6.8   3.8 | -38.6 -37.5  360  47 24   8.2   4.5
 27000 -36.2 -33.2  360  51 26   7.2   4.0 | -36.1 -33.0  005  44 23   8.2   4.5
 26000 -33.9 -29.0  360  50 26   7.7   4.2 | -33.7 -28.7  005  43 22   8.1   4.5
 25000 -31.6 -24.9  360  48 25   7.7   4.2 | -31.2 -24.2  010  42 22   8.1   4.5
 24000 -29.3 -20.7  360  47 24   7.6   4.2 | -28.8 -19.8  010  41 21   8.1   4.5
 23000 -27.1 -16.8  360  46 23   7.1   3.9 | -26.4 -15.5  010  41 21   8.1   4.5
 22000 -25.0 -13.0  355  44 23   7.1   3.9 | -23.3  -9.9  005  40 20   8.2   4.5
 21000 -22.9  -9.2  355  43 22   6.5   3.6 | -21.0  -5.8  360  39 20   6.0   3.3
 20000 -21.1  -6.0  355  41 21   6.0   3.3 | -19.3  -2.7  360  37 19   5.9   3.2
 19500 -20.2  -4.4  355  40 20   6.0   3.3 | -18.4  -1.1  360  36 18   5.9   3.2
 19000 -19.3  -2.7  350  38 20   5.9   3.2 | -17.6   0.3  360  35 18   5.9   3.2
 18500 -18.4  -1.1  350  37 19   5.2   2.9 | -16.7   1.9  360  34 17   5.8   3.2
 18000 -17.8  -0.0  350  36 18   3.6   2.0 | -15.8   3.6  355  32 17   5.7   3.1
 17500 -17.3   0.9  345  34 18   3.7   2.0 | -15.0   5.0  355  31 16   5.7   3.1
 17000 -16.7   1.9  345  33 17   3.5   1.9 | -14.3   6.3  350  30 15   4.4   2.4
 16500 -16.2   2.8  345  32 16   3.5   1.9 | -13.6   7.5  350  29 15   4.5   2.5
 16000 -15.7   3.7  340  31 16   2.7   1.5 | -13.0   8.6  345  28 14   3.3   1.8
 15500 -15.4   4.3  340  30 15   2.2   1.2 | -12.6   9.3  345  27 14   3.1   1.7
 15000 -15.0   5.0  335  29 15   2.3   1.2 | -12.1  10.2  340  26 14   2.7   1.5
 14500 -14.6   5.7  335  27 14   2.4   1.3 | -11.7  10.9  340  25 13   2.4   1.3
 14000 -14.3   6.3  330  25 13   2.5   1.4 | -11.4  11.5  340  24 13   2.1   1.2
 13500 -13.8   7.2  330  23 12   3.4   1.9 | -11.1  12.0  335  23 12   1.3   0.7
 13000 -13.3   8.1  325  21 11   3.4   1.9 | -10.9  12.4  330  21 11   1.4   0.7
 12500 -12.7   9.1  325  19 10   4.8   2.6 | -10.7  12.7  330  19 10   1.8   1.0
 12000 -12.0  10.4  325  17  9   4.7   2.6 | -10.4  13.3  325  17  9   2.0   1.1
 11500 -11.3  11.7  325  15  8   5.3   2.9 | -10.0  14.0  320  14  7   3.5   1.9
 11000 -10.5  13.1  325  13  7   5.3   2.9 |  -9.5  14.9  310  12  6   3.7   2.0
 10500  -9.7  14.5  325  12  6   5.5   3.0 |  -8.9  16.0  305  11  5   4.9   2.7
 10250  -9.3  15.3  325  11  5   5.6   3.1 |  -8.5  16.7  305  10  5   4.9   2.7
 10000  -8.9  16.0  330  10  5   5.1   2.8 |  -8.1  17.4  300   9  4   4.9   2.7
  9750  -8.5  16.7  330   9  5   5.6   3.1 |  -7.8  18.0  300   8  4   5.8   3.2
  9500  -8.1  17.4  330   8  4   6.6   3.6 |  -7.3  18.9  295   7  4   6.5   3.6
  9250  -7.6  18.3  330   6  3   6.3   3.4 |  -6.9  19.6  290   6  3   6.2   3.4
  9000  -6.6  20.1  335   4  2   6.7   3.7 |  -6.4  20.5  285   5  3   7.6   4.2
  8750  -6.2  20.8  340   3  2   6.0   3.3 |  -5.8  21.6  280   5  3   7.4   4.1
  8500  -5.7  21.7  345   3  1   6.1   3.3 |  -5.3  22.5  275   4  2   6.2   3.4
  8250  -5.3  22.5  345   2  1   5.0   2.7 |  -4.3  24.3  260   3  2   6.9   3.8
  8000  -4.9  23.2  350   1  1   7.0   3.9 |  -3.8  25.2  255   3  2   6.8   3.7
  7750  -4.3  24.3  355   1  0   9.3   5.1 |  -3.3  26.1  245   3  1   6.6   3.6
  7500  -3.6  25.5  355   1  0   7.5   4.1 |  -2.9  26.8  235   2  1   6.5   3.6
  7250  -3.2  26.2  000   0  0   5.4   2.9 |  -2.4  27.7  225   2  1   6.4   3.5
  7000  -2.7  27.1  000   0  0   9.5   5.2 |  -1.9  28.6  215   2  1   6.4   3.5
  6750  -1.8  28.8  000   0  0  11.9   6.5 |  -1.4  29.5  200   2  1   7.6   4.1
  6500  -1.0  30.2  000   0  0   9.5   5.2 |  -0.8  30.6  190   2  1   8.2   4.5
  6250  -0.3  31.5  000   0  0   9.4   5.2 |  -0.2  31.6  180   2  1   9.7   5.3
  6000   0.4  32.7  000   0  0  10.6   5.8 |   0.5  32.9  175   2  1   4.3   2.4
  5750   1.4  34.5  000   0  0  15.3   8.4 |   0.3  32.5  180   1  1  -9.1  -5.0
  5500   2.6  36.7  000   0  0  17.5   9.6 |  -0.0  32.0  180   1  1  12.2   6.7
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613