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FNUS75 KGJT 111942
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Upper Vallecito FLooding...La Plata County Office of Emergency Management
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
142 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 MDT on October 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...The main shield of widespread heavy rainfall is
shifting to the East this afternoon. However additional rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall remain a threat through the overnight
hours as instability and moisture combine to produce a better
chance of thunderstorms. A cold front will moving through
overnight will provide more focus for storms and showers with
heavy rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour. Additional
rainfall amounts over the basin of 0.5 to 1.0 inch is the most
probable scenario through the next 24 hours. Localized heavier
amounts are possible near the strongest thunderstorms. Another
batch of tropical moisture with a a heavy rain threat arrives
again by Monday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy with rain showers and scattered
                    thunderstorms. Moderate to heavy rainfall rates
                    in excess of 1 inch per hour possible.
Max temperature.....52-57.
Min humidity........75-80 percent.
Surface winds.......Terrain based winds 3 to 8 mph.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain and thunderstorms
                    continuing overnight.
Min temperature.....42-47.
Max humidity........80-85 percent.
Surface winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 8 mph.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (15-25 percent). Scattered rain showers
                    and isolated thunderstorms in the morning.
Max temperature.....54-59.
Min humidity........39-44 percent.
Surface winds.......Upslope/upvalley winds 3 to 8 mph becoming
                    southwest around 15 mph in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Dennis Phillips
Requested by...Scott Nielsen on behalf of LPC OEM
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 2523437.0/GJT
.DELDT 10/11/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL scott.nielsen@durangofire.org,lpcoem@gmail.com