Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
371
FGUS75 KGJT 132148
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-202200-
Water Supply Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
348 PM MDT Thu Mar 13 2025
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH ISSUANCE NUMBER 3...
...Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)...
The Grand Junction HSA falls almost entirely within the Upper
Colorado River Basin, and provides a population of over 40 million
people with water across the southwestern US. The area
encompasses seven basins including; the Upper Green River Basin
and the Duchesne River Basin in eastern Utah, and the Yampa and
White River Basins, Upper Colorado River Mainstem, Gunnison River
Basin, Dolores and San Miguel River Basins, and the Upper San Juan
River Basin in western Colorado. Each river and their tributaries
feed the Colorado River above Lake Powell, and are primarily fed
by snowpack accumulation (typically) from November - April. As the
snow melts in the spring, the Upper Colorado River Basin begins
to fill lakes, rivers, streams, reservoirs and trans-basin
diversions from Denver to Los Angeles. Thus, seasonal water supply
and resource outlooks across the Grand Junction HSA are crucial
to water management during the late winter and early spring, in
order to support various sectors including hydropower,
agriculture, recreation, and municipal uses that in turn support
the needs of a vast population.
...Water Supply Outlooks Summary/Key Messages...
The potential for spring flooding due to snowmelt is low at this
time, and season water supply volumes remain near to well below
normal for the Upper Colorado River Basin.
Water supply guidance as a percentage of average (as of March 1st)
for the April through July runoff period are listed below:
Green River 65-85%
Duchesne 45-80%
Yampa/White 75-100%
Upper CO Mainstem 80-115%
Gunnison 45-95%
Dolores/San Miguel 50-80%
San Juan 30-75%
Forecast volumes continue to run blow normal due to current
snowpack, soil conditions and weather outlooks.
NOTE: In normal years, additional snowpack can accumulate in the
mountains through the first half of April. However, it`s worth
noting that precipitation, strong winds and blowing dust, a cold
spring or unseasonably warm spring during the snowmelt season can
greatly affect total runoff volume and timing of peak flow.
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Observed Precipitation
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Two systems sliding across the Western Slope provided widespread
precipitation within the first week of March. The southwest San
Juans and Central ranges in western Colorado observed the higher
precipitation amounts, though high terrain across most basins
accumulated 1 to 2 inches of liquid content so far this month.
While measurable precipitation was observed across the CWA, lower
valley floors are still trailing below average precipitation in
comparison to month-to-date analyses. As such, portions west-
central Colorado and east-central Utah have seen another class of
degradation in the US Drought Monitor Index within the two weeks.
Additional systems expected over the next 7 days are expected to
bring near to above average precipitation across the CWA, which
may help maintain status-quo, rather than seeing drought
categories degrade once again.
Western Colorado and eastern Utah Water Year Precipitation as of
March 12th:
Yampa/White 97 % Upper CO Mainstem 95 %
Gunnison 88 % Dolores 80 %
Upper San Juan 73 % Upper Green 105 %
Lower San Juan 55 % Lower Green 100 %
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Observed Snowpack
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The month of February wrapped up to be the 10th warmest on record
(out of 131 years, 1895-2025) in western Colorado. Ending the month
with another warm spell, resulted in widespread snowmelt across the
region`s mid-level snowpack. By March 1st, snow water equivalent
(SWE) conditions ranged from 55 to 115% of normal, favoring the
Yampa/White and Upper Colorado River basins. Less favorable basins
(Dolores/San Miguel and San Juan basins) dropped below the 10th
percentile. Fortunately, a series of atmospheric rivers (ARs)
returned mountain snow with two, widespread events across western
Colorado and eastern Utah at the beginning of March. While any
precipitation helps, SWE conditions maintain well below normal
across southern basins with improving conditions to the north. It
is important to note, that while the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado
and Gunnison basins average near normal, snowpack across upper
portions of each basin (i.e. headwaters) are in much better shape
than their subbasins further downstream. Multiple rounds of
mountain snow are expected in the short term, so we`ll check back
in two week to see if/how conditions have improved across the
Upper Colorado River Basin as a whole.
Western Colorado and eastern Utah Average SWE by March 13th:
Yampa/White 95 % Upper CO Mainstem 98 %
Gunnison 86 % Dolores 63 %
Upper San Juan 63 % Upper Green 106 %
Lower San Juan 33 % Lower Green 90 %
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Soil Moisture
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A relatively active monsoon in 2024 did support an improvement in
soil conditions, in comparison to Fall 2023. More notably, soil
conditions across the upper San Juan, Dolores, San Miguel and
Gunnison basins showed up to a 50 percent average increase from
2023. Elsewhere, near normal to slightly below normal soil moisture
condition`s were observed for the Colorado Headwaters and the
Yampa/White Basins.
Antecedent soil moisture can impact the efficiency of early
spring runoff. Thus, water supply forecasts for basins with above
average soil moisture tend to experience more efficient runoff
from rainfall and snowmelt, while basins with below average
antecedent conditions show less efficient runoff until soil
saturation is reached.
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STATUS of RESERVOIR STORAGE FOR WFO Grand Junction Reservoirs
PERIOD ENDING: February 26, 2025
Figures are in 1000 Acre Feet
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C U R R E N T Y R L A S T Y R 1991-2020
EOM % of % of EOM % of MAR 13 Usable
Storage Average Capacity Storage Average Avg Storage Capacity
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GUNNISON - BLUE MESA | 508.2 | 103 | 61 || 561.8 | 114 || 493.1 | 830.0|
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GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE| 16.7 | 107 | 95 || 16.5 | 106 || 15.6 | 17.5|
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CRAWFORD RESERVOIR | 6.1 | 94 | 44 || 7.2 | 111 || 6.5 | 14.0|
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FRUITGROWERS DAM - A | 2.2 | 59 | 49 || 2.6 | 81 || 3.2 | 4.5|
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FLORIDA - LEMON RESER| 23.0 | 126 | 58 || 15.8 | 86 || 18.3 | 39.8|
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DOLORES - MCPHEE RESE| 210.5 | 81 | 55 || 291.7 | 113 || 259.2 | 381.1|
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GUNNISON - MORROW POI| 110.5 | 101 | 94 || 108.2 | 99 || 109.5 | 117.0|
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MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES| 4.0 | 111 | 24 || 3.2 | 89 || 3.6 | 16.7|
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UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY| 70.8 | 104 | 85 || 65.9 | 96 || 68.3 | 83.0|
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RIFLE CK - RIFLE GAP | 9.8 | 91 | 80 || 12.7 | 118 || 10.8 | 12.2|
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FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE| 71.9 | 109 | 70 || 71.3 | 109 || 65.7 | 102.0|
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CIMARRON - SILVERJACK| 1.5 | 29 | 12 || 1.8 | 35 || 5.2 | 12.8|
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TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK | 68.7 | 103 | 65 || 69.8 | 104 || 66.8 | 106.2|
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LOS PINOS - VALLECITO| 87.0 | 129 | 69 || 67.8 | 100 || 67.5 | 125.4|
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GREEN - FLAMING GORGE| 3130.7 | 102 | 84 || 3124.3 | 102 || 3064.0 | 3749.0|
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COLORADO - LAKE POWEL| 7876.4 | 56 | 34 || 7832.9 | 56 || 14066.0 | 23314.0|
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MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS
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SPECIAL MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS
LOCATION FLOOD FCST FORECAST FLOWS
FLOW DATE 90% 75% 50% 25% 10%
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GREEN - JENSEN, NR 24100 2025-03-01 11000 12500 14000 16500 21000
GREEN - GREEN RIVER, UT 37000 2025-03-01 12000 14000 16000 20000 26000
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO 6000 2025-03-01 2400 2900 3400 4100 5300
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR 17000 2025-03-01 4900 6500 7500 9000 12500
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S 13000 2025-03-01 2900 3600 4200 4700 6000
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR 26000 2025-03-01 9000 11500 13500 16000 22000
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION 20524 2025-03-01 7000 7500 8000 9000 11000
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI 46000 2025-03-01 12000 17000 20000 24000 33000
COLORADO - CISCO, NR 55000 2025-03-01 13500 18500 22000 26000 35000
SAN JUAN - BLUFF, NR 36000 2025-03-01 2700 3100 3800 4300 4800
COLORADO - CATARACT CANYO -999 2025-03-01 24000 31000 37000 45000 60000
DAILY ESP MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS
LOCATION FLOOD FORECAST FLOWS
FLOW 90% 75% 50% 25% 10%
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FISH CK - UPPER STN, STEA -99 470 530 710 790 900
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 5922 2350 2800 3000 3500 4400
ELK - MILNER, NR 5535 2900 3100 3600 4200 5500
ELKHEAD CK - LONG GULCH, 2759 880 1050 1100 1250 1350
WILLIAMS FORK - MOUTH, AT -99 960 1250 1450 1600 2100
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR 22799 7500 8500 9500 10500 14000
LITTLE SNAKE - SLATER, NR 5796 1200 1400 1650 2000 2800
SLATER FORK - SLATER, NR -99 450 570 630 760 970
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR 18450 2500 2700 3300 4000 5500
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK 20313 10000 11000 13000 14500 18500
WHITE - MEEKER, NR 8949 1750 1950 2150 2600 3100
WHITE - WATSON, NR 9372 1650 1950 2150 2600 3200
BIG BRUSH CK - RED FLEET -99 140 170 210 270 310
ASHLEY CK - VERNAL, NR -99 330 400 570 710 880
WHITEROCKS - WHITEROCKS, 4363 220 260 370 480 630
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR 2195 310 340 380 450 540
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE 2005 580 620 710 770 900
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC 299 75 80 95 110 140
PINEY - STATE BRIDGE, NR 10369 430 500 580 660 850
CROSS CK - MINTURN, NR -99 310 350 370 440 520
GORE CK - VAIL, RED SANDS -99 770 940 1050 1200 1600
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A 2931 1150 1300 1400 1550 1850
TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK 31893 390 450 520 620 690
EAST - ALMONT 3119 1300 1450 1600 1950 2350
OHIO CK - MOUTH, ABV -99 300 320 360 460 540
TOMICHI CK - SARGENTS -99 260 310 350 430 530
LAKE FORK - GATEVIEW -99 1050 1150 1300 1550 1800
COCHETOPA CK - ROCK CK, B -99 80 90 130 150 200
ANTHRACITE CK - MOUTH, AB -99 1350 1650 1800 2300 3000
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N 7478 1700 2250 2400 2900 3700
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE 1177 50 75 95 130 190
DALLAS CK - RIDGWAY, NR 1039 60 70 90 110 140
UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY, NR 1996 610 690 740 900 1050
COW CK - RIDGWAY RESERVOI -99 310 340 370 540 750
DOLORES - RICO, BLO 1563 490 590 680 780 900
LOST CANYON CK - DOLORES, 666 25 40 75 110 150
DOLORES - DOLORES 7337 1300 1700 2050 2200 2500
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE, -99 750 860 970 1100 1300
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS 4864 1100 1250 1500 1750 2400
PIEDRA - ARBOLES, NR -99 870 990 1150 1350 1800
VALLECITO CK - BAYFIELD, -99 540 630 710 810 1050
ANIMAS - SILVERTON, BLO -99 1050 1250 1400 1600 1800
ANIMAS - DURANGO 10337 2450 2600 3200 3600 4000
LA PLATA - HESPERUS 685 100 120 150 170 200
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CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK AND FORECAST CONDITIONS
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Current forecast maintains an active March, with another
Atmospheric River (AR) expected to provide widespread
precipitation and mountain snow to the Western Slope tonight into
Friday. Any precipitation is welcomed across the dry southwest,
where snowpack conditions are well below normal. A secondary
system on track for early-mid next week is projected to produce
another round of snow, though extent of said moisture is less
certain at this time. Due to this active pattern, 6 to 10 Day and
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlooks from CPC lean above normal
across western Colorado and eastern Utah. In addition,
temperatures lean below normal for both outlooks, as well.
$$