313
FXUS65 KGJT 082006
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
206 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures to occur today and will persist over the
  coming days. The hottest day looks to be Wednesday with triple
  digit highs expected for the Grand Valley and central and
  southeast Utah.

- A passing wave on Thursday may bring some light precip to the
  area.

- An increase in afternoon winds late in the week brings a
  return of fire weather concerns. Fire Weather Watches are in
  effect on Thursday as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Moisture is slightly higher than anticipated today over western
Colorado, which is making way for a handful of terrain-driven storms
early this afternoon. On the other hand, we are running a little
behind on our daytime heating. Cloud cover won`t help either, so
most storms should stay on the milder side due to lacking
instability. A couple stronger cells capable of producing
strong outflow winds and small hail cannot be ruled out though.

Fire weather conditions begin to appear tomorrow, though areas of
concern will remain fairly localized. The most likely locations to
meet fire weather criteria look to be along the Book Cliffs and
the Tavaputs. It`s here where we anticipate an uptick in gusts
to 25-30 mph, likely due to a transient shortwave passing
overhead, preceding the more robust low currently situated off
the west coast. This feature does bring some potential for late
afternoon showers along the high terrain, but with PWAT`s only
marginally above normal (100-130% of normal), it`s unlikely that
we will see much measurable rainfall across the region.
Otherwise, we continue to sit 5-10 degrees above normal with
tomorrow expected to be the hottest day for the following week.
Portions of lower valleys should expect triple digit highs today
and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

On Thursday a weak shortwave trough passes over the northern CWA.
The wave will pull moisture in from the southwest that should
interact with the terrain and a weak cold front passing through. As
a result scattered showers and storms will be possible across the
area with a focus north of I-70 close to the wave and front.
Unfortunately, with warm temperatures and dry low levels measurable
rainfall will be hard to come outside of the higher terrain. Even
those amounts should be minor. The showers will have better chances
at producing strong wind gusts upwards of 40-60 mph given the large
temp-dew point spread at the surface. There is a bit uncertainty
with the timing of the wave. Previous model runs were bringing it
through during the morning hours and the latest runs are suggesting
the afternoon. Allowing for some surface heating would maximize the
shower coverage and strong gust potential. The other concern is
critical fire weather conditions. The wave looks to increase the
pressure gradient aloft so wind gusts over 25 mph appear to be
common in the afternoon, which would lead to red flags given RH in
the single digits and teens. Temperatures will be well above normal.
The wave departs on Friday leaving west-northwest flow aloft in
place. The gradient should relax some, so lower wind speeds, but
pockets of localized fire weather conditions still look possible.
Temperatures do not change much. Isolated showers look possible in
the afternoon due to some lingering moisture. Over the weekend the
high pressure becomes the dominate feature in the Desert Southwest
so expect our temperatures to climb a little each day going into
next week. There are hints of moisture in the region, but once again
not expecting moisture levels that are capable of widespread showers
and or downpours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Wind gusts
upwards of 25 mph are possible this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Localized critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow.
Though moisture is limited, some isolated storms are possible.
Lightning from these storms could pose a threat for new starts.
More widespread critical fire weather conditions occur on Thursday
as 25-30 mph gusts are expected. As a result, Fire Weather
Watches are in place for multiple zones on Thursday. Friday is
also shaping up to be concerning for fire weather, so stay updated
over the next couple days for more information.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for COZ203-205-207-290>294.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for UTZ487-490-491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...