120
FXUS65 KGJT 061131
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
531 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will improve a few degrees today, approaching
  normal values for the early April around the region.

- Skies remain mostly cloud free today and Monday, with
  temperatures continuing to climb through the week.

- Near record high temperatures expected by Saturday, with a
  potential pattern shift arriving late next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Satellite imagery this morning paints a pretty good picture of the
meridional flow pattern`s arrival here on the West Slope. Some thin
high clouds can be seen to our north and west, but skies are mostly
clear across the CWA. The lone exception: Durango and eastward, a
pocket of low stratus clinging to the terrain has been in place all
night. This will take some sunshine this morning to burn off, but
should by mid day, giving everyone a taste of the sunshine that the
rest of the CWA got a preview of on Saturday. Some of the high res
cloud forecasts are keeping some cloud cover along the Continental
Divide. Pagosa Springs will likely keep more of a partly sunny
regime into the afternoon, given the fresh moisture from snow laying
around. Elsewhere around the CWA, temperatures will benefit from
another day of full sunshine and arrival of subsidence with the
building ridge moving overhead. Highs Sunday afternoon will approach
near normal around the region after a cold start this morning. The
Freeze Warnings for Grand Flat, Grand Valley, and southeast Utah
have handily verified this morning and will likely drop off around
0900 MDT as temperatures rebound quickly. Winds will remain
northerly today, which could take a bite out of our abundant
sunshine. Skies will remain clear heading into Monday and overnight
lows tonight will dip again, with temperatures down into the teens
for our cold basins and 30`s for our desert valleys out west. Freeze
warnings are not expected Monday morning, as lows will dip, at
worst, into the mid 30`s in the previously affected zones. The ridge
moves overhead Monday and subsidence will give temperatures another
5-10 degree nudge upward. Highs in the low valleys will likely crest
70 and mountain valleys head into the 50`s Monday afternoon under
light westerly winds. Some thin high clouds could invade late
afternoon Monday on the nose of a weak disturbance working into the
PACNW. This is all just the opening act for the remainder of the
week discussed below.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

The transitory ridge over the region breaks down on Monday night
as a mid-level short wave trough moves across the northern
Rockies. In response, flow aloft becomes zonal on Tuesday and
mildly breezy across the north. Modest moisture clips the
northern mountains bringing a slight chance for snow showers
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The flow over the area
tilts to the northwest Late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
ridge of high pressure builds over the West Coast. Models
indicated the weak moisture stream will continue on Wednesday
and potential for light snow continues over the Elkhead and Park
Range as a result. No appreciable accumulation is expected. The
high pressure ridge to the west continues to slide eastward on
Thursday becoming centered over the Rockies on Thursday night.
Like earlier in the week, the ridge is flattened by a short wave
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Models
diverge on Saturday, but all indicated flow aloft increases as
the disturbance tracks across the north along with some
potential for light showers, again mainly across the northern
Colorado mountains.

Temperatures which were subdued by the long wave trough which
settled over the area last week and into the weekend will trend
upward in the long term. Highs climb from around 10 degrees
above normal on Tuesday to near record levels Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Aside for KDRO, VFR conditions with few clouds are expected over
the next 24 hours. Winds will be relatively light and terrain
driven. Mountain terminals could see a few gusty winds near 25
mph this afternoon. In the case of KDRO, remnant low level
moisture in the wake of Saturday`s storm system is expected to
keep ceilings below ILS breakpoints through 18Z. Light winds and
clear skies will close out this TAF period Monday morning.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ006.
UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ022-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT