943
FXUS65 KGJT 052316
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
516 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny/hazy and dry conditions continue through the weekend
  with near-record highs expected.

- Similar conditions linger into next week. Chances for
  afternoon showers and storms increase on Tuesday over the high
  terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Wildfire smoke from the eastern Uintas has moved into portions of
eastern Utah and western Colorado this morning due a northwesterly
wind shift behind a departing shortwave trough. Smokey/hazy skies
will become commonplace over the next 48 hours, especially across
the northern half of the forecast area. While the concentration of
smoke will ebb and flow over time, potential impacts include
reductions in visibility, smokey/hazy skies, and reduced air quality
for some. Visit airnow.gov to look up the air quality conditions in
your location.

With high pressure remaining overhead through the forecast period,
dry conditions are expected to persist with temperatures remaining
at or near record highs. Winds gradually subside throughout this
afternoon. As a result fire weather conditions will improve as winds
subside.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

High pressure remains in place for the start of the new week
resulting in continued near-record temperatures. While a dry airmass
stays put on Monday, global ensembles begin to advect moisture into
the Great Basin region as a shortwave trough moves towards Coastal
California early next week. If the forecast remains on track, that
moisture would move in locally by Tuesday. While most locations will
remain dry, afternoon showers and storms are possible in the high
terrain on Tuesday and Wednesday. PWATs decrease for Thursday and
Friday, but there may be enough moisture in place for isolated
precipitation in the mountains. While forecast confidence decreases
beyond Wednesday, early guidance indicates the potential for a major
pattern change by next weekend. Stay tuned this week to see if fall-
like weather will finally make its return.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

As high pressure continues to dominate, skies will remain clear,
winds will remain light and terrain driven, and VFR conditions
will prevail. The only concern is smoke from a wildfire in the
western Uinta mountains. This smoke is already affecting KVEL,
and is expected to settle into the Grand Valley and up the
Colorado River Valley through the night as mixing decreases.
This could lead to periods of reduced visibility or low ceiling.
Currently only have Smoke and Haze in the TAFs for KVEL, KGJT,
KRIL, and KEGE, but will continue to monitor and will adjust as
needed.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT