860
FXUS65 KGJT 061112
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
512 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above normal by Wednesday,
  and remain there through the rest of the week.

- High pressure will keep skies mostly clear, limiting
  precipitation chances to isolated convection over the terrain
  in the afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

High pressure dominates the pattern through the next 36 hours, with
mostly clear skies and warming temperatures. Highs today and
tomorrow will run 3-6 degrees above normal, with temperatures across
the desert valleys approaching triple digits. A modest amount of
moisture and orographics will keep a low chance (20%) of showers or
storms developing over the higher terrain this afternoon. A weak
shortwave tracking around the ridge tomorrow afternoon will bring a
slightly more substantial chance of showers or storms to the
terrain, with a 30-40% chance of precipitation. Some spots across
the higher terrain of the San Juans may see some wetting rain
tomorrow, but total QPF will be under a tenth of an inch. The main
threats with anything that develops today or tomorrow will be gusty
outflow winds, small hail, and lightning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Things only get drier from Tuesday on as the high pressure transits
further to the north, setting up near the Four Corners. As a result,
precipitation potential on Tuesday and Wednesday will rely on
whatever lingering moisture may still be trapped west of the
Rockies, and there`s not much to tap into, with PWAT`s 65-80% of
normal. Expect little more than sparse, isolated showers along
mountain ranges. To add, things will be warming up under this
pattern as well, placing the region 5-10 degrees above normal. This
would mean many lower valley locations will reach triple digit highs
throughout the week.

By Thursday, the California low will have shifted polewards enough
to skirt north of the blocking high. As a result though, the
shortwave associated with this low gets flattened between the high
pressure center to our south and near-zonal flow to our north. This
dampens upper-level support by the time it arrives late Thursday or
early Friday. Consequently, PoP`s are low late in the week, though
some orographically-driven storms across the north cannot be ruled
out. As of now though, it`s not looking promising for much
precipitation through the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 511 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Winds will follow typical terrain driven patterns over the next
24 hours, with afternoon gusts up to 20 knots possible. Skies
will remain mostly clear. VFR conditions will prevail. There is
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms along the Divide
this afternoon, with gusty winds and lightning the main threats.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT