423
FXUS65 KGJT 040511
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1111 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions take over again
  tomorrow. Red Flag Warnings are in effect tomorrow, and a Fire
  Weather Watch is in effect for Tuesday.

- High temperatures rise to 5-10 degrees above normal by mid-
  week.

- Precipitation chances look very low through at least
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The region has sufficiently dried out today, evidenced by
today`s 18Z sounding sitting at 0.4 inches of PWAT, down from
about 0.7 inches this time yesterday. Some cumuli have been able
to develop over the high terrain thanks to some lingering mid-
level moisture, but it`s clear that we have stepped foot fully
into this new pattern. Relative humidities have begun to reach
single digits in much of our lower valley locations as a result
today, though the lack of 25+ mph wind gusts is expected to
keep critical fire weather conditions relatively localized.
Regardless of the somewhat mild setup for fire weather, we have
seen a handful of new starts this afternoon. This should
emphasize the potency of this pattern considering the remainder
of the week is looking to present a more favorable environment
for fires than we`re seeing today. A tightening pressure
gradient ahead of a western CONUS trough will bring an uptick in
gusts to 30-35 mph with localized higher speeds possible over
the high terrain tomorrow. The current GEFS forecast indicates a
high probability (over 90%) of exceeding the 75th percentile in
HDWI (Hot-Dry-Wind Index) region-wide tomorrow. Portions of
lower valleys, especially along the Grand Valley, may exceed
the 95th percentile in HDWI. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is
in effect for most of our zones from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT tomorrow
aside from our southernmost zones, where localized critical
fire weather still remain possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

High pressure remains stationed over the Arizona/New Mexico border
through pretty much the entire long term period. This means that
we`ll be stuck in this hot, dry, and windy pattern through the
period. Westerly to southwesterly flow near the surface will
continue to advect warm air into the region, with temperatures
climbing a degree or two each day, and topping out 5-10 degrees
above normal by midweek. In addition, these higher temperatures will
promote deep mixing, with will bring down stronger winds courtesy of
a jet streak rounding the top of the high. This will lead to winds
gusting 25-35 mph most afternoons. The position of the high will
help keep things dry as well, preventing any subtropical moisture
from surging north out of Mexico. Some of the global deterministic
models try to sneak a little bit of moisture under the high and into
the Colorado Divide mountains late in the week, but overall eastern
Utah and western Colorado will stay high and dry. So, the majority
of the long term will be hot, dry, and windy. And indeed, the
HDWI  keeps the majority of eastern Utah and western Colorado
above the 75th percentile each day, with several locations in
central western Colorado and central eastern Utah above the 95th
percentile through the end of the week. All this is to say,
we`re moving into a period of widespread and prolonged critical
fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is now in effect
from 11AM to 8PM on Tuesday, and additional fire weather
highlights are likely to be needed through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Only
concerns Monday will be gusty surface winds of 20 to 25kts,
maybe a bit higher at times. Wildfire smoke will also be
visible across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Though dry air has settled in today, mild winds are keeping most
of the region below critical fire weather thresholds. Conditions
become more favorable for fire weather tomorrow though. Relative
humidities Monday are expected to reach their lowest of the week,
and region-wide gusts will reach over 25 mph as well. While Monday
looks to be the most prolific fire weather day ahead, the rest of
the week looks to be dry and windy as well. Red Flag Warnings are
in effect tomorrow, Fire Weather Watches are in effect Tuesday,
and more highlights may be needed through the week.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ200>203-
     205-290-292>294.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for COZ200>203-205-290-292>294.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ485>487-
     490.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for UTZ486-487.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT