743
FXUS65 KGJT 092158
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
358 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will bring sunny skies and above normal warmth
  early this week.

- A weak disturbance passing to the south will bring increased
  cloud cover and maybe a few light snow showers to southern
  portions of the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Another potent winter storm fed by an atmospheric river is
  expected late this week. Significant snowfall is possible
  across the mountains with measurable snow in the high valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 358 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Sunny and mild conditions prevailed over eastern Utah and
western Colorado today as a ridge of high pressure was
centered over the Rockies. The ridge is flattened tonight as a
mid-level short wave trough moves across the northern tier
states. However, this won`t have an impact on sensible weather
so skies will remain clear tonight which will allow for strong
radiational cooling and lows close to those recorded this
morning. Dry zonal flow late tonight carries over through Monday
so dry and sunny conditions continue, though cirrus begins to
appear over eastern Utah late in the day. Temperatures continue
to moderate and will peak close to 10 degrees above normal. High
clouds originating from a closed low pressure system off the
southern California coast overspread the region Monday night
which should result in a modest uptick in overnight lows by
Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 358 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

A pinched off low pressure center works ashore in SOCAL Tuesday
morning behind the southwesterly flow of the
departing/flattening ridge. This should send temperatures well
above normal for another day in the warm up ahead of the late
week winter storm(more below). This should bump up surface winds
into the 25-30 mph range for the terrain and 20-25 mph in the
valleys Tuesday afternoon. This trend will continue through the
extended period, as the jet takes up residence across The West.
Winds on Wednesday look to be a little bolder, nearing 40 mph on
much of the terrain and across northeast Utah/northwest
Colorado. Cloud cover should pick up across the southern half of
the CWA thanks to the open wave swinging through Wednesday. A
few light flurries are possible on the southern mountains, but
accumulating snow is not expected as the boundary layer
conditions look too dry to support surface precipitation,
especially at lower elevations. Winds remain strong Thursday as
the next winter storm arrives to the region. Some accumulating
snow will begin Thursday morning on the eastern Uintas and fill
in across the region by Thursday evening. Snow rates will pick
up Thursday night ahead of the cold front that is expected to
arrive by lunch Friday. While snow rates will taper down south
on Friday, the northern/central mountains will see snow continue
through Friday night and Saturday morning. Post frontal showers
will continue Saturday, but rates look pretty tame everywhere
with the exception of the Flat Tops and Park Range. Temperatures
look to be brisk on Friday and Saturday with afternoon highs
nearly 20 degrees below early week highs. A strong northwesterly
jet streak will keep chilly winds blowing Saturday too. This
one looks like a reminder that winter might be nearing a close,
but is far from over. Dominant flow shifts more zonal Sunday,
but winds aloft remain spirited under a persistent polar jet,
which will likely keep the winds gusty around the region again
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

High pressure remains in control through this TAF period with
VFR conditions at the terminals throughout the period. Some
terrain driven drainage winds will pickup late tonight for KHDN,
KGJT, and KASE, but most terminals will see variable light winds
during the period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT