410
FXUS65 KGJT 041151
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
551 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow showers return this afternoon for most of our
  mountain zones. Accumulations will range from 2-10 inches by
  Saturday night.

- Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the San Juans from
  this afternoon through late Saturday night.

- Seasonably cold temperatures continue with a warm up expected
  Sunday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 425 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Skies have cleared out across the CWA for the most part tonight as
moisture has been stunted by some dry air sneaking into the
Southwest across the Four Corners. Worry not, there are still
several pockets of upper level moisture trapped in the resident
upper trough responsible for the past few days of cool and turbulent
weather. A mess of low stratus is hung up on the Tavaputs/Roan
Cliffs and southward across the Grand Valley and Grand Flat. This is
putting a damper on that Freeze Warning we have out through 0900
MDT. Lows under the cloud cover are still above freezing, whereas
down in southeast Utah, where cloud cover isn`t a problem, lows are
dipping into the 20`s. This will remain a concern for Saturday
morning as well, especially with forecasted lows even warmer than we
were expecting this morning. I will defer to the afternoon
forecaster for the final call on another freeze warning Saturday. It
doesn`t look necessary from this vantage point.

Speaking of clouds, skies try to clear up along the state line this
morning for our valleys and basins, which could let enough sunshine
in to make it feel a bit warmer in that corridor today.
Unfortunately, another disturbance spinning up to our south will
blot out our sun by this afternoon. The Uinta Basin and southeast
Utah could remain out of reach of the cloud shield and see their
afternoon highs in the 50`s and 60`s, respectively. The Grand Valley
and Grand Flat will sit right in the middle with mid 50`s there this
afternoon. Meanwhile across the mountain zones, snow showers will
pick up mid day, where we introduce anther Winter Weather Advisory
for the San Juans. This will continue into Saturday, with the
southwest San Juans likely requiring their advisory to hang on into
Saturday evening. When all is said and done, snow totals down there
will range from 3-10 inches. The newly spun up low to our south will
get squeezed by the upper trough, as it narrows in breadth thanks to
ridging to its east and west. This will tighten the surface gradient
across northwest Colorado and northeast Utah this afternoon, where
we`ll see some gusts in the 25-35 mph range into the evening hours.

Early Saturday morning the backside of the trough approaches the
western edge of the CWA and snow showers begin to contract south and
east. Continued wraparound from the surface low will keep snow
flying on the west shoulders of the Continental Divide south of I-
70. This keeps up through Saturday afternoon, as the upper trough
hints at leaving for good. Sunny skies will blanket much of the CWA
on Saturday with the cloud cover southeast of a Vail Pass to Four
Corners heading. Highs Saturday will still be 10 degrees below
climatology(colder under snow and cloud cover), but some sunshine
will be welcome following a week of intermittent cloud cover.
Precipitation should wrap up late Saturday night and clear skies
will likely usher in another cold night for the West Slope.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

By Sunday morning the trough that has been dominating our weather
for the last several days will finally track east of the Divide
while a ridge of high pressure builds into the Western CONUS. This
ridge will nose into eastern Utah and western Colorado through the
day Sunday, with subsidence and modest warm air advection helping
conditions to warm and dry. Temperatures on Sunday will be
seasonable for early April, and will jump another 5 or so degrees on
Monday as the ridge crests overhead. While the Western Slope will be
enjoying abundant sunshine and highs 5-10 degrees above normal, a
trough will be moving into the Pacific Northwest. By Tuesday
morning, as this trough tracks eastward into the Northern Rockies,
it will flatten out the ridge, turning flow zonal and bringing a
very modest bump in moisture. Combined with favorable orographics,
this means a few isolated rain or snow showers will be possible
Tuesday afternoon across mainly the northern mountains. To the
south, skies will remain clear and conditions will be breezy. Along
and south of I-70, highs will be few degrees warmer than the day
previous, while north of I-70 temperatures will run a smidge cooler.
Another system moves into the Northwest late on Tuesday, and models
are not in great agreement as to what influence this next system
will have on eastern Utah and western Colorado. As it stands,
blended guidance keeps us warm and mostly dry, with some slight
chances for afternoon showers in the northern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Some low stratus ceilings are impacting terminals in the
Colorado River Valley this morning. Some intermittent fog and
IFR ceilings are possible at KCNY, KGJT, KRIL, and KEGE.
Elsewhere, mostly VFR conditions are present around the region.
This will change towards mid day, as clouds lift into the region
and snow showers develop on the terrain. This will lead to
widespread breakpoint conditions for mountain terminals, with an
emphasis south of I-70. Conditions across northwest Colorado
and northeast Utah will improve as skies clear later tonight
towards the tail end of this TAF period. However, breakpoint
conditions will hang on into subsequent TAF periods for
southwest Colorado.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon MDT Saturday
     for COZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT
     Saturday night for COZ019.
UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ022-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT