


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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743 FXUS65 KGJT 171745 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1145 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning remains in effect for many valleys from through 9AM this morning. - Generally, dry and tranquil conditions persist through the weekend. - The next system drops down from the northwest early next week, potentially bringing scattered rain and mountain snow showers to the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The freeze warning remains in effect through 9AM this morning as colder air has moved in thanks to cold frontal passage yesterday. Some midlevel clouds have formed over the northern valleys, however, and will likely keep temps above freezing there overnight. A dry, upper level trough will move overhead today but no precip is expected. We might see a few clouds over the higher terrain but that should be about it. Neutral advection will keep highs very similar to yesterday so they`ll stay at or just below mid October seasonal norms. Northwesterly flow remains over the area Saturday as a weak shortwave drops down from Montana into Wyoming and then NE CO. Available moisture and support is very weak which limits any precip associated with this disturbance. That being said, broken to overcast skies will be common for the northern mountains and surrounding foothills while we should see mostly sunny, if not clear, skies for the rest of the CWA. Highs will increase a few degrees as well. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 254 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Northwesterly flow ahead of the invading upper ridge will keep things dry and on the cool side of climatology Saturday night. The relatively zonal polar jet ebbs northward Sunday with a weak transitory ridge working overhead. This will keep things mild here on the West Slope, with temperatures near normal across the region Sunday afternoon. A shallow trough works across the Intermountain West Monday. This little clipper system is advertising some light precipitation north of the Colorado River on Monday, including some light snow for the Park Range and the Flat Tops. Cold air looks pretty unimpressive at this point, so I wouldn`t make any bets on snow. But, some light rain is probably realistic, along with cooler temperatures across northwest Colorado and northeast Utah Monday. The shallow cold pool won`t register much of a dip south of the Colorado River. Tuesday looks like another quiet transition day with temperatures slightly cooler behind Monday`s wave. Models begin to show some discrepancies Wednesday and Thursday with the evolution of a cutoff low lifting into the Great Basin. This feature sends some additional precipitation across the Four Corners and into our southern mountains. Still plenty of time to see the model evolution. Good news is that it looks like mild fall weather continues. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Cloud cover will continue moving across our area near the Wyoming border through the afternoon. This cloud cover is primarily over KHDN, while all other sites have mostly clear skies. Gusty winds are possible this afternoon, but winds will become light overnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...LTB AVIATION...TGJT