741
FXUS65 KGJT 021806
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1106 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional snow arrives today and continues into Wednesday
  evening. 4 to 8 inches of new snow is expected for the
  mountains, with locally higher totals possible.

- Snowpacked mountain passes are expected this evening,
  Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening.

- Clear skies behind the front will produce another cold morning
  Thursday.

- Another system may move in for the weekend keeping unsettled
  weather in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

A couple of synoptic features working in tandem this morning are
setting the stage for another day of mountain snow and cloudy, cold
conditions everywhere else on the West Slope. A mid/upper low off
the coast of Baja Mexico is pushing a weak deformation zone into the
Great Basin. This is producing a stacked plume of moisture across
the Great Basin onto the West Slope. Secondly, another jet max is
nosing south down the British Columbia Coast, bending eastward
across Oregon. At the moment, we`re just seeing some scattered to
broken mid level cloud cover across the region. This will all change
this morning as the frontal boundary drapes across the CWA. Light
orographic snow showers on our northern mountains will spread
southward by afternoon. Snow rates never really get out of hand, but
I think a couple bands of snow along the front could be productive
enough to create travel hazards this afternoon and into the evening
commute. Went ahead and issued Winter Weather Advisories for the
Park Range, Vail Pass, and the northern San Juans. Most of our
mountain passes will have some snow to contend with this afternoon
and into Wednesday morning.

The frontal boundary works southward towards the Four Corners this
evening. Steady orographics will keep snow flying through the
overnight hours. This will keep overnight lows moderated from the
clear and cold lows we saw this morning. Persistent snow on mountain
passes overnight will mean another slick commute Wednesday morning.
The upper trough swings through Wednesday afternoon. This will
produce an uptick of snow across Vail Pass and the San Juans,
creating additional travel headaches for afternoon commuters
Wednesday. Advisories are slated to expire at 1700 MST Wednesday,
but may need a bump to get the trough over the Continental Divide
Wednesday evening. Snow and skies start clearing out from northwest
to southeast Wednesday evening, setting the stage for another cold
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

By Wednesday evening, the trough and front lift out over the
Plains causing the showers to diminish. Most locations will be
dry by late Thursday morning. Temperatures will warm a few
degrees ahead of the front and cool a few degrees behind it.
Snow amounts are still uncertain, but in general the mountains
are looking at 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts upwards of
12 inches. Some valleys could get a few inches as well. Like
previous systems guidance seems to be under forecasting QPF, so
these totals could go up with time. Also, like the last system
there is a potential for instability and banding, which can
enhance snowfall locally. A brief lull ends on Friday as a plume
of moisture streams in from the northwest. This means another
round of orographic snow showers for the northern and central
mountains Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1055 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Snow is falling at many TAF sites as a frontal boundary moves
across the region. As a result, conditions have dropped to IFR
or LIFR at some sites due to reduced visibility and lowered
ceilings. Snowfall remains possible through the TAF period, but
chances decrease a bit this afternoon. Chances will increase
again after 00Z and remain elevated through the night. Thus,
periods of IFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will generally be light.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ004-
     010-018.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT