


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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748 FXUS65 KGJT 021759 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1159 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will once again form over the higher terrain this afternoon, with lightning and outflow winds capable of gusting in excess of 50 mph the primary concerns. - With rich moisture in place and slow storm motions expected, heavy rain and localized flash flooding threats will be on the increase today and tomorrow. - Near to below normal temperatures are expected through Friday, then a gradual warming and drying trend will last through the holiday weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 306 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The closed low off the West Coast has moved on shore tonight, while ridging continues to dominate much of the Intermountain West. Between these two features, a tap of deep tropical moisture is working into the Desert Southwest. This deep moisture has allowed for clouds and a few light showers to linger well into the overnight hours, helping keep temperatures mild. While the best of this moisture is still to our west at the time of writing, as the West Coast low tracks east today it will nudge the moisture plume more directly into eastern Utah and western Colorado. As a result, afternoon convection will be more widespread this afternoon, with an increasing threat of heavy rainfall in addition to frequent lightning and outflow winds capable of gusting 40-50 mph. Slow storm motions and that increasing heavy rain threat will contribute to create an isolated flash flooding threat this afternoon. Additionally, the increased clouds and shower activity will limit our high temperatures to near-normal values this afternoon. It`s not unusual, with such rich moisture in place over the Western Slope, to see convection linger well into the overnight hours. And indeed, model guidance is picking up on this for tonight into tomorrow morning, favoring areas around the Four Corners and northward through eastern Utah. By Thursday morning, the open trough will be approaching eastern Utah and western Colorado, nudging that moisture plume eastward. Model guidance has PWATs running around 200% of normal by tomorrow afternoon. This moisture and the bit of dynamic lift provided by the trough will certainly be enough to get convection started, but the question becomes how much instability will be present. That overnight convection mentioned earlier will be the big concern, because lingering clouds could severely hamper the development of daytime instability, and turn a widespread convective event into a more stratiform type, with widespread steady rain and embedded stronger storms. As high resolution guidance starts to come in today, we will get a better handle on this. Regardless of the form it takes, there is increasing confidence of a widespread wetting rain event tomorrow, and an increasing concern of isolated flash flooding in prone spots. Temperatures are expected to run 5-10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 306 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Showers and thunderstorms look to linger through the night Thursday before tapering off early Friday morning. Models quickly diverge from this point onward. While upper-level flow is fairly well agreed upon between models on the 4th of July, moisture content widely varies, with cluster analysis split evenly between above- and below- normal QPF. Whatever moisture does persist will be mostly confined to the northeastern portions of our CWA near the Park Range. However, any amount of lingering moisture on the backside of the departing trough may support scattered convection, particularly along the high terrain, should orographics be favorable. It is apparent that drier conditions resume heading into the weekend, but consistency among models regarding the upper-level flow appears to fall off greatly by this point. Ridging does seem to try and reassert itself over the region through the weekend and into early next week. Between this and the suggested drying trend, blended guidance does want to gradually warm temperatures back to near or slightly above normal values by the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1154 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will pose some aviation challenges today and this evening for terminals. Gusty outflow winds and ceilings will intermittently impact airfields. Showers are expected to taper late evening, with leftover clouds hanging around into the overnight hours. An approaching frontal boundary will bring some more showers to the region Thursday morning, likely producing lower ceilings near breakpoint conditions for a few terminals. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...TGJT