544
FXUS65 KGJT 231131
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
431 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A system will move through the area on today mainly south of
  I-70, with most locations dry by sunrise on Monday.

- Snow is expected generally above 8000 feet in the central and
  southern mountains most of the day today. Overall snow totals
  are 5-10 inches.

- Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day look to be mostly dry with
  near to slightly above normal temperatures.

- Precipitation chances return next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

The closed low which we have been eyeing is now on its
northeastward track through the Desert Southwest. Dense cloud
cover has sufficiently overtaken the region ahead of this
system, and soon enough we anticipate to see precipitation
arrive from the south as well. Forecasts for this winter storm
have been trending wetter and wetter for a couple days now, and
the most recent forecast is no different. Snow totals have come
up once again, increasing 1-3 inches over most high elevation
locations in the San Juans. This is pushing accumulations to
4-10 inches over 9000 feet with some localized higher amounts.
Further north over the Sawatch, Elk, and West Elk ranges, snow
totals have been a little more steady with 2-6 inches being the
current expectation. We suspect snow ratios may be running a
little high given the relative warmth of this system, so it is
possible that the high end of these totals will be a tougher
(yet not unreasonable) feat to reach. Either way, even should
snow ratios fall a little short of current model projections,
advisory-level accumulations are likely over the San Juans, and
possible, albeit less likely, over the central Colorado ranges.
As such, the Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect until
midnight tonight for the San Juans. We have opted to leave the
central Colorado mountain ranges out of the advisory still, but
we will be keeping a watchful eye on these locations should
conditions deviate from current expectations. Regardless,
travel impacts will be possible across all aforementioned
mountain ranges through Monday morning, so be cautious should
you find yourself in the mountain passes over the next 24 hours.
Snow is expected to come to an end by sunrise on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

The cold front associated with the shortwave dropping down from
the Pacific Northwest Monday night shows less organization than
on previous model runs. Still this system has strong cold air
advection (CAA) with it, so expect temperatures to drop five to
ten degrees Tuesday from the warm temperatures Sunday and
Monday. Guidance has minimized the CAA with this system with
temps only falling about five degrees across the region. We`ll
need to watch this. The shortwave looks to track farther north,
thus the Park Range and maybe the Flat Tops will see possible
light orographic snow showers Tuesday with this system, but
little accumulation is expected.

By Wednesday, the high pressure over the Desert Southwest
erodes shifting the flow aloft over eastern Utah and Western
Colorado from a cool northwest to a warmer zonal flow. Look for
temperatures to return to five to seven degrees above normal for
late November. A major storm system may be in the works for
next weekend, but the models vary widely on track and timing of
this system making any predictions little more than a wild guess
at this point. The ensembles are are in fair agreement with the
main thrust of this system, a very cold Arctic low descending
out of Canada somewhere into the Intermountain West to Rocky
Mountains, but again there is a lot of dispersion on timing and
track of the system which has a strong bearing on where the
impacts will hit. Stay tuned on this one through the first half
of the week as we hammer out the details, for this seems to be
the classic major event it impact the Thanksgiving travel
season.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 417 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Rain showers and mountain snow showers are moving into the
southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Look for these
showers to continue to spread to the northeast through 19Z
bringing MVFR to IFR conditions to the southern TAF sites,
Expect periods below ILS breakpoints at KASE, KGUC, KMTJ, KTEX
and KDRO through 03Z. Look for showers to end west to east
through the afternoon and evening with skies scattering out
after 06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ018-
     019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB