077
FXUS65 KGJT 092328
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
428 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will continue over the northern and central divide
  mountains and adjacent valleys through early afternoon as this
  system moves eastward and drier air moves in behind with
  improving conditions from west to east this afternoon and
  evening.

- Dry weather returns tonight and continues through Monday while
  temperatures rebound to near normal beneath a transitory high
  pressure ridge.

- A weak disturbance will bring another chance of mountain snow
  to the region Tuesday, favoring the northern and central
  Colorado mountains. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists in the
  exact track so low confidence on amounts and location.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Precipitation was a little more extensive this morning back
towards the west in the wraparound flow around the closed low
that is now centered over North Platte, Nebraska. Roads are
mainly wet with some limited impacts over Vail Pass as snow is
still falling there. We are now seeing the back edge of this
wraparound moisture where shower activity is basically along the
northern and central divide and points east. In northerly flow,
conditions are vastly improving from west to east with sun
breaking out and clouds breaking up across eastern Utah and much
of western Colorado. Although, some low clouds remain hugging
the terrain with some stratus in some lower valleys but
anticipate these will lift by late afternoon into the evening
with dry weather returning. Skies are expected to clear tonight
with efficient radiational cooling, leading to a rather chilly
night, especially in snow covered basins and cold pool areas.
Therefore, nudged temperatures down a bit in those locations.
The one area of concern tonight though is the development of low
valley fog due to lingering low level moisture from recent
precipitation. The question is always where so at least included
a mention in most lower valley locations for patchy fog, so will
be something to monitor.

A shortwave ridge of high pressure slides overhead by Sunday
with less amplification and more of a zonal flow. So, even
though temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today,
backed off a bit on the warmup by a couple degrees and trended
towards slightly cooler guidance. With the sunshine though, it
will certainly feel more pleasant compared to our unsettled
weather all of this past week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Long term deterministic models are finally getting into better
agreement with the next system. Until then, Monday will be a
pleasant day and thanks to generally south through southwesterly
flow, high temperatures will jump to anywhere from 3 to 5
degrees above more seasonal mid-November values. As far as the
next system is concerned, EC and GFS ensembles are coming into
agreement with a surface cold front moving through the region
during the day Tuesday. By the afternoon and evening hours, some
light snow will be possible over the spine of the Divide from
the San Juans northward (EC) or just the northern mountains
(GFS). Previous runs had the GFS staying dry with the EC being
more aggressive. Looks like the GFS is trending upward some,
while the EC is trending downward. A happy medium, as it were.
As of now, snow amounts still look to be in the sub-advisory
range of 1 to 4 inches, mainly favoring the northern and to a
lesser extent the central Colorado mountains.

After that, high pressure builds in bringing a return to
tranquil weather. Some discrepancies pop up once again with
model solutions as the GFS brings a weak shortwave over the area
just bringing some high clouds Friday. As this occurs, energy
drops down the West Coast and the GFS tries to close off a low
over southern Cali. The EC, on the other hand, doesn`t show any
short wave and tries to close off that same low over central
Cali. Some differences so we will see how this all plays out
over the next several model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 426 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Scattered skies persist for the eastern half of the CWA though
only KDRO is reporting MVFR conditions. Those clouds will lift
in the next hour or two and by 06Z SKC will be the predominant
cloud group. Light winds expected tomorrow as high clouds start
to move in after 18Z. VFR conditions expected once KDRO breaks
out.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT