798
FXUS65 KGJT 121228
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
628 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will continue to bring heavier rain and strong
  winds to Colorado through noon. After that, precip finally
  ends with mostly sunny skies expected.

- Another round of increased moisture from TD Raymond moves up
  from the south Monday into Tuesday with 1 to 2 inches of new
  rainfall possible. A Flood Watch has been issued for those
  areas where this heavier rain is expected.

- Unsettled weather continues for much of the week as another
  system moves in from the west bringing more showers and storms
  to eastern Utah and western Colorado.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

The Flood Watch the covered all of eastern Utah and almost of
all of western Colorado has been allowed to expire. That being
said, a cold front moving through this morning is still bringing
some heavier rains to the area so flooding concerns have
diminished though they are not completely over. Rainfall should
completely end around noon. A new Flood Watch remains in effect
for portions of the San Juans and southern valleys as another
round of tropical moisture moves in early Monday and continues
through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A cold front is moving across the area this morning bringing
some heavy rain and stronger wind gusts with it. Thankfully,
drier air is moving in behind the cold front considering how
much precip we`ve seen over the last few days (more on that in
the Hydro section below). The surface cold front and upper level
trough will both have reached the Continental Divide by noon
and this will be when rain finally comes to an end. Skies will
be clearing from west to east shortly after sunrise leading to
mostly sunny skies, also from noon onwards. Highs today are
expected to be right around climatological norms so after all
the unsettled weather, today will be a nice autumn day.

Unfortunately the nice weather won`t last as moisture will
start streaming up from the south thanks to the next tropical
system, Raymond. Clouds will start increasing across southern
portions of the CWA overnight with some light showers possible
for the southern valleys up into the San Juans. Precip intensity
will increase through the day for those same areas and also
spread into central portions of the CWA by daybreak. Pieces of
energy will continue to move across the area keeping precip in
the forecast for the remainder of the short term period. Once
again, PWATs will reach around 200% of normal for much of the
CWA so though these anomalous values won`t be as high as they
were for Priscilla, there is still some concern for flooding.
Those concerns will be greatest for those areas that have
already seen flooding (Vallecito and Pagosa Springs) so went
ahead and issued a Flood Watch for those areas. Storm total
precip amounts are currently in the 1 to 2 inch range after
combining NBM and WPC forecast QPFs.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

By Monday evening, the low descending along the West Coast is
turning the corner about the San Francisco Bay area to eject to the
northeast across the Great Basin into southeastern Idaho, Wyoming,
and eastern Montana before hitting the Saskatchewan Canadian Border,
and with the high pressure over Texas setting up a southerly flow
aloft, deep moisture from the Remnants of TS Raymond is being drawn
up into the San Juan Mountains. Unfortunately, the focus of this
moisture is in the area around and above Pagosa Springs where
current flooding of the San Juan River is ongoing. Current guidance
is forecasting another one to two inches rain around Pagosa Springs
an two to three inches over the higher terrain above Pagosa Springs.
For this reason, the Flood Warning for the San Juan River at Pagosa
Springs is in effect until midnight Tuesday. Though the models are
in good agreement with the track of the low as it ejects to the
northeast, they very wildly on the speed of the ejecting low with
the Canadian model pushing it to the Canadian Border by Wednesday
evening, while the GFS lags by 18 hours and the European yet another
24 behind the GFS. Current guidance is tracking with the timing of
the GFS keeping the plume in  place through  Tuesday morning. If the
timing is slower, the moist plume will remain over the Pagosa
Springs area longer. Stay tuned for updates to the Flood Warning, as
it may need to be extended into Wednesday.

Look for afternoon winds gusting 15 to 25 mph in the lower valleys
and 30 to 45 mph over the higher terrain Tuesday and Wednesday ahead
of the cold front associated with the ejecting low. Temperatures
across most of eastern Utah and Western Colorado will warm to near
normal to five degrees above normal for mid October Tuesday. With
the frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon, the highs will only be
near normal, but with the northwesterly flow behind the front
Thursday onwards, temperatures will run about ten degrees below
normal. This will push the morning low to the freezing mark or
colder for most of the valleys around the region. Looks like only
the Grand Valley over to the Moab area will be spared Friday and
Saturday. It is mid October and to be expected. Now is the time to
make plans for your gardens.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A cold front moving through colorado extending from KEGE
southwest to the Four Corners continues to push to the southeast
with showers and a few thunderstorms. There are snow showers in
the cold air behind the front currently at KHDN and likely at
KASE before 15Z. This front will exit the region by 18Z with
showers ending in the early afternoon. Expect conditions below
ILS breakpoints at KHDN, KRIL, KEGE and KASE through about 15Z.
Look for clearing conditions with breezy west to northwest winds
after 18Z with winds dropping off after 00Z. Mid-level clouds
and showers start moving into southwestern Colorado after 06Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 624 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

The amount of precipitation some areas have received over the
past few days has been exceedingly impressive to say the least.
Looking at 48 hour totals (unofficially), most areas across the
San Juans received between 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with a few
spots reaching just over 5 inches. 1 to 2 inches was common
across central portions of Colorado with anywhere from a half to
1 inch for the northern valleys. Most of eastern Utah received
the same, a half to 1 inch of rain. Unfortunately, this amount
of rain did cause flooding around the Vallecito and Pagosa
Springs areas. The San Juan River at Pagosa Springs peaked at
12.7 inches which is above major flood stage. Latest observations
show the river now at 9.70 feet as of 630AM and continuing to
lower which is certainly good news.

Issued a new Flood Watch for portions of the San Juans and
southern valleys as TD Raymond brings another surge of moisture
from the south Monday into Tuesday. While this surge won`t be as
strong as what we saw with Priscilla, a few inches of rain is
possible and thus the Watch. Once again, excessive rainfall may
result in flooding of recent burn scars, urban areas, and other
low- lying and flood-prone locations. Rockslides and mudslides
will also be possible in the mountains.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
     COZ019-022-023.

UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB
HYDROLOGY...TGJT