137
FXUS65 KGJT 121010
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
410 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday.

- Strong afternoon wind gusts are expected on Monday and
  Tuesday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for parts of eastern
  Utah and northwestern Colorado today from noon to 8 PM.

- Dry and windy conditions will allow for elevated to critical
  fire weather conditions today and tomorrow where fuels are
  deemed critical.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 406 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a dry slot of
sorts moving into southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. This
dry air mass is expected to move across the region today sending
PWATs plummeting to 50-75% of normal by this evening. This dry
airmass will inhibit precipitation chances today.

The low pressure system currently located over the Pacific
Northwest will continue to move inland today. Locally, this
works to tighten the height gradient aloft leading to an uptick
in synoptic winds this afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for the valleys of northeast to east-central Utah and
northwest Colorado where the strongest wind gusts of 40-50 mph
are expected. Other valley locales can anticipate wind gusts up
to 40 mph this afternoon.

Temperatures continue to rise as warm air advection remains in
place across the forecast area. Some of the lower valleys will
flirt with 90 degrees this afternoon, especially in southeast
Utah. The record high in Grand Junction today is 92. It is
unlikely we`d see a new record set today with the current
forecast calling for a high temperature of 89, but unseasonably
warm for mid-May nonetheless.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025

Not much change noticed in model output from yesterday with regards
to the next system. Tuesday, broad southwesterly flow will remain
over the area thanks to a longwave trough situated over Idaho and
Nevada. The location of this trough will cause the surface pressure
gradient to continue to tighten bringing another day of gusty winds.
Some of the stronger winds did lighten up in the latest run but
widespread 30 to 40 mph looks possible with some valleys seeing
advisory level winds (>45 mph). Will keep an eye on later runs to
see which way the models trend. Some light precip will fall over the
northern valleys and NE Utah ahead of the trough and surface cold
front. PoPs will continue to increase Tuesday night and reach a
maximum during the day Wednesday as the cold front moves through.
Plenty of instability will be available so some isolated to
scattered storms will also likely make an appearance. Gusty winds
will be the main concern from these storms. Wednesday night into
Thursday morning will bring some light precip as the upper level
trough moves through but the heaviest precip will be over. The end
of the week heading into the weekend will see some minor impulses
moving across the CWA bringing some light precip across the area.
Temperatures will start out above normal, then drop to a few degrees
below thanks to the cold front, and then reach above Friday
onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025

Winds remain a concern today as a strong upstream storm moves
through the Intermountain West. Strong southerly gradient winds
should lead to widespread gusts of 25 to 30 knots by the peak
heating hours with some gusts over 35 knots possible (especially
at KVEL). Otherwise VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF
period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     COZ001-002.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ024-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT