083
FXUS65 KGJT 071013
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
313 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers continue today with the San Juan
  mountains receiving 2 to 5" of additional snowfall.

- Gusty winds up to 35 mph will continue this afternoon across
  the western half of the forecast area.

- Light snow may continue in the central and southern mountains
  through the end of the week. Temperatures will also remain
  below normal through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

The slow moving storm which began impacting the area earlier
this week was centered over central Arizona early this morning.
Moisture wrapping around the system continued to bring light
snow to the southern and central Colorado mountains according to
radar imagery. Areas to the north and west were cloud free and
cold.

Models indicated the low will track slowly eastward during the
day arriving over the AZ/NM border by 00Z/Fri. Orographic lift
combined with mid and upper level forcing will continue to bring
snow across the San Juan Mountains and central Colorado ranges
along the Continental Divide. Additional accumulations of up to
5 inches are expected on the eastern side of the San Juans, so
the Winter Weather Advisory there will continue. Meanwhile,
lower elevations south of the San Juan Mountains can expect
snow, or mixed rain and snow depending on time of day. Afternoon
highs should stay cold for this time of year which NBM didn`t
appear to capture effectively. Therefore, pared back MaxT grids
toward MOS guidance values.

The low continues eastward moving over central New Mexico by
12Z/Fri then to the Panhandle region by 00Z/Sat. Wrap around,
orographics, and dynamic forcing continue to impact the southern
and central Colorado mountains during this time. However,
showers become more scattered and additional accumulations are
expected to be light. Therefore, saw no need to extend
advisories this morning. Meanwhile, areas to the north and west
will continue to be dry but much cooler than normal. Highs
moderate a few degrees, but afternoon readings will still run
close to 10 degrees below seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

Isolated to scattered snow showers continue to be a possibility
along the Divide through Saturday afternoon, however there
remains uncertainty for how much moisture will be able to make
it onto the Western Slope. Integration of the hi-res models over
the next 24-36 hours should help paint a clearer picture.
Otherwise the extended forecast is looking much more settled
compared to what we`ve seen the last couple of weeks. Weak
ridging builds in behind the departing low-pressure system
supporting drier weather and helping high temperatures climb
back towards normal throughout the weekend. A weak upper-level
trough propagates eastward across the western CONUS early next
week. Right now this system looks fairly progressive resulting
in precipitation chances primarily on Tuesday afternoon, but
there is plenty of time for refinement to the forecast before
then.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024

Scattered to broken clouds will be common for the southern half
of the CWA overnight with lesser clouds elsewhere. KDRO, KTEX,
and KGUC will see the best chances for some precip and/or low
ceilings and visibility as HREF and satellite continue to show
most cloudiness in those areas. Midlevel ceilings will be the
rule again tomorrow for the southern half of the CWA and
generally along the Continental Divide. ILS breakpoints may be
reached for KASE and KEGE while KTEX, KDRO and KGUC will likely
reach them through the day. Conditions will start to improve
towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     COZ018-019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT