066
FXUS65 KGJT 262144
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
344 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions continue through this evening, with higher
  wind gusts still anticipated tomorrow. Wind Advisories have
  been issued for tomorrow afternoon.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions will continue
  through this evening, with another round expected tomorrow.
  Red Flag Warnings are in effect where fuels are susceptible.

- Cooler temperatures, near or slightly below normal, are
  expected for the first half of the week, with above normal
  temperatures returning late week. Showery, unsettled
  conditions will linger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Models remain pretty well on track with the current forecast.
Satellite imagery places the center of the West Coast low over
central California, and the most recent model runs have captured
this quite well. Run-to-run consistency is high as well, as the
last few model runs have had this low moving onshore around 18z
today, and reaching central California by 21z. From there, the
low will continue to track eastward into the Great Basin.
Guidance has slowed the low`s progression by about 6 hours, with
it not making it to central Nevada until 12z tomorrow, and not
making it into northern Utah until tomorrow evening. As a
result, the warm, dry and windy conditions will stick around a
bit longer before finally giving way to cooler and more
unsettled conditions on Monday.

The tight pressure gradient aloft has led to winds of 25-35 mph
across the region this afternoon, with gusts into the 40s. Deep
mixing will continue to tap into these winds aloft, bringing
not only gusty southerly to southwesterly winds, but also above
normal temperatures, with highs running 10 or so degrees above
normal this afternoon. A punch of much drier air has also
arrived on the strong southwesterly flow, with relative
humidities in the single digits to low teens. Where fuels are
susceptible, Red Flag Warnings continue through 8PM this
evening. Winds will drop overnight as daytime mixing ceases, but
it will still be breezy and temperatures will run mild tonight
as a result. By tomorrow, the already tight pressure gradient
will have tightened up yet more, and a 90-100 knot jet will nose
in over the Four Corners region. Abundant morning sunshine will
promote deep mixing yet again, bringing much warmer
temperatures and mixing down these strong southerly to
southwesterly winds once again. Winds will be at their strongest
on Sunday, with widespread 25-35 mph winds and gusts 40-50 mph.
Areas favored by downsloping in a southwesterly wind regime
will see the strongest winds, namely the Paradox Valley, the
Eastern Uinta Basin, the Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River
Basin, and the Central Yampa River Basin. Wind Advisories have
been issued for these areas from late tomorrow morning through
tomorrow evening. In addition, as dry surface air remains in
place, Red Flag Warnings for portions of southwest and west-
central Colorado will also be in effect tomorrow afternoon. All
that said, there is one thing that could put a damper on this
whole forecast, and that is the approach of a stream of upper
level moisture in the form of high level clouds. Predicting the
effect a cirrus shield can have on winds and temperatures in a
situation such as this is notoriously difficult. If the clouds
are thick enough, it will decrease mixing and really take down
the winds and temperatures. However, sometimes strong enough
mixing can overcome this effect. With the abundant sunshine
expected during the morning hours, have hedged on the side of
stronger mixing and higher winds, but there still remains that
hint of uncertainty.

As the low tracks into northern Utah tomorrow night, there will
be enough moisture associated with the approaching cold front
to fire off some light mountain showers. QPF is nothing to write
home about, with totals over the northern and central Colorado
mountains coming at around a tenth, and a bit higher amounts
over the eastern Uintas. Snow totals, for the highest
elevations, are generally 1-2 inches for the Colorado mountains,
up to 4 over the eastern Uintas. The colder air moving in with
the front will bring lows on Monday morning 5-10 degrees below
what they were 24 hours before... near to a few degrees below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

The closed low which has brought these gusty conditions passes
to our north through Wyoming on Monday before merging with a
shallow trough across the Upper Plains. 500mb height gradients
aloft are much weaker behind the trough which should slow winds
down some, though most locations are still expected to
experience a breezy afternoon (20-25 mph gusts and some
localized stronger winds at high elevations). Critical fire
conditions will decrease primarily thanks to a slight increase
in RH and decrease in temperatures. While this system doesn`t
bring with it much in the way of moisture, lift from the passing
cold front should promote a slight isolated shower potential as
well, primarily across the northern CWA.

The upper-level pattern quickly gains complexity on Tuesday,
mainly due to deformation in flow over the Rockies, which is
resulting in heightened disagreement amongst ensembles regarding
the ensuing behavior of the atmosphere from Wednesday onwards.
What is evident is that low pressure will develop in the PacNW
Tuesday morning before transiting eastwards. The frontal
boundary extending from this low will lag behind (evident by a
strong positively tilted trough across the Great Basin). How
slow-moving this front will be is what remains as the big
question mark as FROPA varies among ensemble members anytime
from mid-day Wednesday to late morning Thursday. Additionally,
while the front will carry with it relatively intense moisture
across the far western CONUS, PWAT`s are likely to diminish
significantly by the time it arrives to our CWA. Thus, it is
within the realm of possibility that, regardless of when FROPA
occurs, precipitation potential could be minimal. Ultimately
though, models are way too volatile right now to speculate what
will occur during the mid-week period. Keep an eye out for
updates as we await better agreement among model guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

A gusty two days are ahead. Strong gusts from 25-35 mph are
already occurring region-wide and are expected to occur again
tomorrow beginning in the late morning to early afternoon. Most
terminals will see winds calm as we head into the evening,
though sustained winds will remain 10-15 mph. KTEX and KCNY are
the main exception to this, where stronger gusts are anticipated
to occur throughout the night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Red Flag Warnings continue through 8PM this evening for wind gusts
of 25-35 mph and humidities in the single digits and low teens.
Winds will be stronger tomorrow, with gusts of 40-50 mph possible.
Continued low humidities in combination with the strong winds mean
widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected again.
Where fuels are susceptible, Red Flag Warnings are in effect again
tomorrow, from noon to 8PM. Cooler and wetter weather movings in
Monday, bringing an end to critical fire weather conditions for a
few days.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ002-011.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ203-205-
     207-292.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ203-205-
     207-292.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ020.
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT