005
FXUS65 KGJT 170923
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
323 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Freeze Warning remains in effect for many valleys from
  through 9AM this morning.

- Generally, dry and tranquil conditions persist through the
  weekend.

- The next system drops down from the northwest early next week,
  potentially bringing scattered rain and mountain snow showers
  to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The freeze warning remains in effect through 9AM this morning as
colder air has moved in thanks to cold frontal passage
yesterday. Some midlevel clouds have formed over the northern
valleys, however, and will likely keep temps above freezing
there overnight. A dry, upper level trough will move overhead
today but no precip is expected. We might see a few clouds over
the higher terrain but that should be about it. Neutral
advection will keep highs very similar to yesterday so they`ll
stay at or just below mid October seasonal norms. Northwesterly
flow remains over the area Saturday as a weak shortwave drops
down from Montana into Wyoming and then NE CO. Available
moisture and support is very weak which limits any precip
associated with this disturbance. That being said, broken to
overcast skies will be common for the northern mountains and
surrounding foothills while we should see mostly sunny, if not
clear, skies for the rest of the CWA. Highs will increase a few
degrees as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Northwesterly flow ahead of the invading upper ridge will keep
things dry and on the cool side of climatology Saturday night.
The relatively zonal polar jet ebbs northward Sunday with a weak
transitory ridge working overhead. This will keep things mild
here on the West Slope, with temperatures near normal across the
region Sunday afternoon. A shallow trough works across the
Intermountain West Monday. This little clipper system is
advertising some light precipitation north of the Colorado River
on Monday, including some light snow for the Park Range and the
Flat Tops. Cold air looks pretty unimpressive at this point, so
I wouldn`t make any bets on snow. But, some light rain is
probably realistic, along with cooler temperatures across
northwest Colorado and northeast Utah Monday. The shallow cold
pool won`t register much of a dip south of the Colorado River.
Tuesday looks like another quiet transition day with
temperatures slightly cooler behind Monday`s wave. Models begin
to show some discrepancies Wednesday and Thursday with the
evolution of a cutoff low lifting into the Great Basin. This
feature sends some additional precipitation across the Four
Corners and into our southern mountains. Still plenty of time to
see the model evolution. Good news is that it looks like mild
fall weather continues.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions will remain in place for the next 24 hours. A few
areas will see some gusts up to 20kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ001-002-005-
     007-008-020>023.
UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT