791
FXUS65 KGJT 281756
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1056 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions continue through Saturday.

- The next system to track out of the Southwest continues to
  take on a northern trend and should spread light precipitation
  over the area Saturday night into Sunday with minimal impacts
  forecast attm.

- A more active weather pattern sets up later this weekend
  starting with the potential for light snow across the San
  Juans Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 152 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Very distinct Omega pattern is in place across the SW CONUS with
the Intermountain West and Central Rockies squarely under the
influence of the blocking high attm. So the continuation of
mainly clear skies and warming temperatures is on track over the
next few days before this pattern breaks down and a more
unsettled scenario emerges. The challenge remains the snow
covered basins and high valleys where inversions remained quite
strong and mixing was limited yesterday...a trend that should
continue again today. The Gunnison Basin continues to be the
biggest challenge and went ahead and nudged things back toward
the cooler side of guidance. Temperatures today elsewhere look
to bump up 5 to 10 degrees overall and then another few degrees
on Saturday as the axis of the upper ridge translates overhead.
The pattern will be getting a push by a stronger trough digging
down the E.Pac on Saturday which will eventually swing inland.
This upper latitude trough kicks the western omega low into the
Southwest late Saturday with a direct bearing toward the 4
Corners...with another nudge northward in the forecast track.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 152 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

The latest consensus pushes the track of the Southwest low
farther northward from 24 hours ago. The track of the parent low
still still has some spread of uncertainty with the NAM the
farthest North as anticipated. There is a fair amount of QG
ascent moving through the CWA due to a combination of favorable
jet location and PV advection. However looking at soundings a
lot of this will be used for top down saturation. Unless models
are well underestimating the moisture tap...this system remains
moisture starved. The end result continues to look like a low
impact event with light snow amounts spreading across the
southern and central mountains Saturday night into Sunday.
Hopefully there is more clarity with the introduction of some
of the CAMs over the next 24 hours.

The main focus of the seven-day forecast is a high-amplitude trough
that is projected to propagate across the western CONUS on Monday
and Tuesday. This system brings the next opportunity for widespread
precipitation chances to eastern Utah and western Colorado. Mountain
snowfall is likely with a light rain/snow mix in the valleys. The
biggest source of uncertainty at this time is how much moisture will
be realized with this system as PWATS span from 80-130% of normal in
the GEFS and ENS. If that holds, most area mountain ranges will
receive light to moderate snowfall amounts resulting in slippery to
hazardous travel conditions over mountain passes. Not the big storm
we need, but we`ll take what we can get!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1053 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with SKC.
Winds will generally remain light and terrain driven with some
breezy conditions picking up overnight at a few sites due to
downsloping winds off the high terrain.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT