893
FXUS65 KGJT 061132
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
532 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will keep dry conditions in the forecast with
  near record-highs expected. Some smoke and haze will be
  possible due to fires to our west.

- Not much change for next week though a stray shower or storm
  may be possible Tuesday over the Uintas. Next chance for any
  precip looks to be next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Minimal changes to the going forecast as high pressure centered
to our southwest remains in control. A weak little upper level
wave will move through today but with hardly any moisture to
work with nor upper level support, don`t expect anything to
occur. Winds will remain from the northwest through north and,
unfortunately, short term guidance continues to highlight this
flow bringing in some smoke and haze to portions of the CWA.
Coverage will increase through the day and cover much of central
UT and CO heading into the late afternoon hours. Models
sometimes overdo this coverage so will see how this pans out and
can modify the forecast as needed. Might see some reductions in
visibility along with smokey and hazy skies. Temperatures
remain above normal (shocker, there).

More of the same on Monday but as the wave passes to our east,
upper level winds will become slightly northeasterly which
should limit the amount of smoke we receive in the afternoon.
Outside of that, might see some clouds over the eastern Uintas
and San Juans though no precip expected. Any change to the
temps? Nope, not yet.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Much of the coming week`s weather will be dominated by a ridge of
high pressure spreading across much of the west. This will allow for
continued dry conditions and very warm, above normal temperatures
with near record highs. High temperatures through the coming week
remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early October. Minor
perturbations in the flow from an active northern stream with result
in some cloud cover rolling through and possibly some isolated
showers and storms over the mountains, particularly Tuesday and
Wednesday. Any shower activity will mostly result in gusty outflow
winds and some lightning if anything but conditions remain mostly
dry at the low levels and temperatures will stay relatively
unchanged. Plenty of model uncertainty exists beyond mid week as a
potential pattern change looms with a deeper low pressure trough
moving in from the Pacific Northwest. The GFS is fairly progressive,
pushing this trough across late Friday into Saturday with scattered
to widespread shower activity. The ECMWF keeps this low cut off over
the Great Basin by Saturday and indicates hints of a Rex Block with
high pressure maintaining its footing. Needless to say, there are
hints of a potential pattern change by next weekend which if it
holds true, could mean more seasonable temperatures reminiscent of
Autumn and of course, precipitation. This is still a ways out and
models are struggling with timing and details but something to keep
an eye on. Until then, conditions remain mostly dry and very warm
with near record high temperatures through the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Clear skies and light winds expected today with a few occasional
gusts this afternoon. Smoke from a fire in northern Utah will
bring some haze to the area today and may drop visibilities,
especially at KVEL, but for now will mention haze and amend as
necessary if vis drops below 6 miles.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT