013
FXUS65 KGJT 302337
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
537 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers and storms are expected each day with the
  best chances on the higher terrain.

- Showers will be capable of producing gusty winds upwards of 50
  mph, small hail and perhaps localized heavy rain by midweek.

- Better moisture moves in midweek increasing the chances for
  widespread showers and storms.

- Unseasonably warm conditions remain in place through mid
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Currently there is a ridge of high pressure in place, so
temperatures are running 5-10 degrees above normal. The moisture
that was in the northern half of the forecast area yesterday has
been pushed to the southern half of the area today. Convection has
already initiated over the higher terrain, and expect some of that
activity to move into the surrounding valleys through sunset. Gusty
outflow winds up to 50 mph, small hail, and fire starts will be the
main thunderstorm threats. Overnight the southeasterly low
level jet ramps up over the Four Corners, which will advect more
moisture into the region. There is not much change to the
overall pattern tomorrow other than the increased moisture. This
should result in a slight uptick in afternoon convection with
the highest chances occurring in the southern mountains. The
same impacts will be expected from these storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Low pressure over California and high pressure over the Gulf will
keep deeper moisture moving into the CWA thanks to flow around these
two features. This is corroborated by forecast NAEFS PWATs
indicating values of 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal early
July values. This moisture will be worked on by a shortwave trough
Wednesday afternoon which will allow some widespread showers and
thunderstorms to fire. Some heavier rain is very likely under and
near the stronger cells. Convection is expected to fire over the
higher terrain and then possibly drift into adjacent valleys as the
wave moves through. Thursday, the low pressure that was out west
will become an open wave and start moving across the CWA. Models
continue to indicate Thursday being the day with the most widespread
and heaviest precip. Highly anomalous PWATs will remain across the
area and the added lift from the open wave will be the impetus for
this precip. The only fly in the ointment will be cloud cover that
may limit convection. If this occurs, we can expect a more
stratiform, soaking type rain event with some embedded storms being
more likely. Still have plenty of time to work out these finer
details. Model differences appear Friday as the GFS wants to keep
heavier rainfall confined to the Divide and adjacent mountains while
the EC only keeps a few showers in the picture. Again, plenty of
time to hammer out this details. Ridging builds in for the weekend
with a return to sunny skies and warming temperatures.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Convection will continue firing over the higher terrain this
afternoon with a few showers and thundestorms possible. Central
and southern portions of the CWA are favored for this
convection. Put PROB30 groups in for KASE and KEGE where chances
are highest to see some storms. The biggest concern will remain
gusty outflow winds. Convection will die down towards sunset.
Even with the showers and storms, VFR will remain in place for
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Some light showers have persisted into this evening over KDRO,
KEGE, KTEX, and KGUC. However, these storms are anticipated to
dissipate over the next hour. Impacts should be minimal with
VFR conditions remaining in place. This evening and into the
early portions of tonight, some 20-25 knot gusts are possible at
KASE, KMTJ, and KGUC. Tomorrow afternoon, showers and
thunderstorms are again expected with storms mostly developing
along higher terrain.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT