608
FXUS65 KGJT 041114
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
514 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions will affect
  eastern Utah and western Colorado today and tomorrow. Red Flag
  Warnings are in effect to account for this.

- High temperatures will remain above normal through much of the
  week.

- Dry conditions will likely persist through much of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

The big news for much of the week will be critical fire weather
conditions across most of the CWA. Flow around high pressure
situated well to our south and a passing trough over Idaho will
keep southwesterly flow across our region. This will keep very
dry air in place with afternoon RHs only reaching the single
digits for almost all areas. A 75kt jet streak will also be
moving overhead and thanks to deeper mixing, some of these
stronger winds aloft will mix to the surface. The end result
will be gusty surface winds of 20 to 30 mph, if not higher at
times. These factors are what`s driving the Red Flag Warnings
for today. Several new fire starts have cropped up across the
region so these conditions do not bode well for those fires.
Some high level clouds may make an appearance this afternoon but
that will be about it outside of the hot temperatures and gusty
winds.

More of the same on Tuesday, though winds may be a touch
lighter and less widespread as seen today. That being said,
critical fire weather conditions will continue as all the
ingredients will remain in place. High temps will be about the
same as seen today as flow becomes more westerly. No sign of any
precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

High pressure remains stationed over the Arizona/New Mexico border
through pretty much the entire long term period. This means that
we`ll be stuck in this hot, dry, and windy pattern through the
period. Westerly to southwesterly flow near the surface will
continue to advect warm air into the region, with temperatures
climbing a degree or two each day, and topping out 5-10 degrees
above normal by midweek. In addition, these higher temperatures will
promote deep mixing, with will bring down stronger winds courtesy of
a jet streak rounding the top of the high. This will lead to winds
gusting 25-35 mph most afternoons. The position of the high will
help keep things dry as well, preventing any subtropical moisture
from surging north out of Mexico. Some of the global deterministic
models try to sneak a little bit of moisture under the high and into
the Colorado Divide mountains late in the week, but overall eastern
Utah and western Colorado will stay high and dry. So, the majority
of the long term will be hot, dry, and windy. And indeed, the
HDWI  keeps the majority of eastern Utah and western Colorado
above the 75th percentile each day, with several locations in
central western Colorado and central eastern Utah above the 95th
percentile through the end of the week. All this is to say,
we`re moving into a period of widespread and prolonged critical
fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is now in effect
from 11AM to 8PM on Tuesday, and additional fire weather
highlights are likely to be needed through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

The main concern today will be gusty southwesterly winds of 20
to 25 kts for all TAF sites. VFR conditions will remain in place
as some high clouds move overhead. Wildfire smoke and haze will
also be visible across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Relative humidities today will reach their lowest of the week,
and region-wide gusts will reach over 25 mph as well. While
today will be the most prolific fire weather day, the rest of
the week will be dry and windy as well. Red Flag Warnings are
in effect today while the Fire Weather Watches for Tuesday have
been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings. Confidence is increasing
for more fire weather highlights on Wednesday though coverage
will likely start decreasing as surface winds lighten up. Will
not issue any highlights with this mornings package for
Wednesday to allow another model run or two to get a better
handle on the winds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ200>203-205-290-292>294.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ200>203-
     205-290-292>294.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for UTZ485>487-490.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ486-487-
     490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT