720
FXUS65 KGJT 302101
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
201 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories remain active for most mountain
  zones across the West Slope with 5-10 inches of snow expected
  by Monday morning.

- Travel on mountain passes is expected to be challenging this
  afternoon and Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Colder temperatures behind today`s cold front will keep a
  cold trend in place this week.

- Another winter storm may move through midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Per snow stake cameras, all mountain ranges have already begun
to receive an inch or two of snow as this late weekend shortwave
begins to push through from the northwest. Not much has changed
for the northern and central mountain ranges with a widespread
swath of 6-10 inches expected and higher localized amounts up to
a foot and a half in some portions of the Elks and West Elks.
The major change with this forecast comes over the Grand Mesa,
the Uncompahgre Plateau, the San Juans, and the La Sals, where
snow totals have jumped a few more inches. The culprit for this
is the increasing potential for stronger snow bands developing
along the frontal boundary near and south of I-70 in the mid-to-
late afternoon. Not all CAM`s are on board with this stronger
convective development yet, but some (particularly the NAM Nest)
are certainly trending towards this outcome. Unfortunately,
without strong agreement among models, it`s difficult to say if
these higher snow rates and totals will manifest or not, so it
is extremely important this afternoon and evening to stay aware
of current conditions, especially in those aforementioned
regions where strong snow bands could develop.

The heaviest snowfall should begin to wane following midnight,
though impactful snow showers could continue through sunrise,
particularly in the central and southern Colorado mountain
passes. After sunrise, look for snow showers to dissipate and
pave the way for clearer skies and a chilly afternoon behind the
front. High temperatures will run 5-15 degrees below normal
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

And the wave train doesn`t end as we look upstream Tuesday. An
upper level trough will be located over western Montana and
eastern Idaho early Tuesday. Ahead of this feature will be a
shortwave that will just clip our CWA bringing some light snow
to the eastern Uintas, and northern valleys and mountains. Don`t
look for much accumulation though, that won`t start until the
main upper level trough and the next weak, cold front pushes
through. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with this system
even this far out but that`s not to say we couldn`t see some
changes over the next few days. That being said, the forecast is
calling for 2 to 5 inches over the northern mountains, Flat
Tops and portions of the central mountains with lesser amounts
south. Previous, similar systems have come in with amounts like
these and then as we get closer to the event, amounts bump up so
there`s always that chance. Either way, much of the CWA will
see some form of precip Tuesday morning through Thursday.

And wouldn`t you know, the wave train continues Friday into the
weekend as pieces of energy move through northwesterly flow.
You folks up in Steamboat Springs, you know what this means.
Favorable orographics, not to mention stronger waves moving
through, over a prolonged period may bring some decent snowfall
amounts to the Elkheads and Park Ranges. We are still a ways
out, however, so take this with a grain of salt. Still,
something to look forward to. As far as high temperatures are
concerned, they will be on the cool side with highs generally
below more normal early December values across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1022 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

A cold front and upper level trough will move over the area
today bringing low ceilings and visibilities due to rain and
snowfall. ILS breakpoints will be met for most terminals across
the area especially later on this afternoon and evening as the
front moves through. Under heavier snow and rain showers, both
ceilings and vis will drop between IFR and MVFR, possibly VLIFR
at times under the heavier showers. NW Colorado and NE Utah
will see conditions improving later tonight and this will
continue to the southeast towards Monday morning. Mountains can
anticipate clouds, ceilings, and precip through Monday morning.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Monday for COZ004-009-
     010-012-013-017.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Monday for COZ018-019.
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Monday for UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT