204
FXUS65 KGJT 101114
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
514 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions will be limited to
  the 4 Corners region of Colorado with localized conditions
  possible elsewhere.

- A slight cool down toward normal is forecast today with
  temperatures returning to well above normal through early next
  week.

- Dry and warmer conditions continue into much of next week with
  some hint of moisture being drawn northward into the region by
  late in week to promote a better coverage of showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Impressive looking trough on H2O imagery is digging through Utah
toward the 4 Corners this morning. Plenty of high clouds being
produced in the base and downstream portion of the trough but
little chance of precipitation. We are looking at about a 1 day
cooldown back toward normal as this trough moves through today.
Overall good news on the critical fire weather front as winds
will trend downward like temperatures. However some stronger
winds have remained a constant trend over southwest Colorado and
have gone with a localized Red Flag Warning for that area. There
is some ascent with the trough passage and small core of jet
winds aloft but have very little faith we can get precipitation
to the ground across the Southern mountains. There will be a 20
percent chance or less probability of thunderstorms which
unfortunately come with an unwelcome threat of lightning strikes.
Post trough conditions on Monday keep things on the dry side
with most of the moisture limited to the lees side of the
divide. With plenty of sunshine temperatures will move upward
and continue that trend well into the mid-week period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

High pressure builds to our west through the week. This will
keep the forecast hot and dry until at least midweek. Temperatures
will increase daily as we shift from northwesterly flow to westerly,
resulting in highs 5 to 10 degrees above average Tuesday through
Thursday. A dry airmass is expected to remain in place until a
shift to southwesterly flow as a trough moves in off the Pacific and
pulls in some moisture. Precipitation chances are low on Monday
while PWATs are anomalously low, but will increase each day after
Monday as this moisture moves in. However, confidence is not high in
coverage of PoPs or QPF, particularly late in the workweek, as there
are substantial disagreements between ensembles regarding moisture.
Despite the hot and dry weather, critical fire weather conditions
look to be localized each day as wind gusts remain below thresholds
in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

High level cloudiness is drifting over the CWA early this
morning and should slowly thin through the day. The main
concern through the early morning hours will be smoke from the
Lee fire that is filtering down into the Colorado and Roaring
Fork Valleys. Visibility will be impacted by this smoke at least
this morning and have placed in the KRIL TAF for now with a few
TEMPO groups at nearby sites. Otherwise winds over 25 mph will
be less widespread today and limited to the peak heating
hours...KMTJ...KGUC and KDRO have a least a 60 percent
probability of seeing this threshold.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Models trends continue to point to a limited critical fire
weather threat today as winds abate in most areas. Gusts of 25
to 30 mph in southwest Colorado develop under and behind the
base of an upper trough moving through. Beyond this critical
fire weather looks to remain localized at best even as
temperatures begin to climb upwards. Moisture will be on the
increase from mid to late next week which may not lead to
significant precipitation but at least give a boost to afternoon
humidity.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ207.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...15