Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Hastings NE
437 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2025
...2025 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This outlook is for the Hastings Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). In
central and south Central Nebraska this outlook includes the
Platte...Loup...Little Blue...and Republican Rivers and their
tributaries. In north central Kansas...the Solomon River and its
tributaries are included.
...There remains a VERY-SHORT-TERM window for potential ice jam
flooding mainly along the Loup River system in central Nebraska...
...The longer term potential for spring flooding (not related to ice
jams/snow melt) is still considered below normal across our area...
...Shorter Term Hydrologic Outlook...March 1-13...
There remains a VERY-SHORT-TERM window for potential ice jam
flooding mainly along the Loup River system in central Nebraska.
This window for possible ice jam flooding is quickly closing but
could continue through around March 2-3, by which time we expect
most ice will have cleared out and moved downstream of our forecast
area.
An active weather pattern is expected to bring a widespread 0.25-
0.75" of precipitation (in the form of both rain/some snow) to most
of our area during the next week (particularly centered on March
4th), but this amount of precipitation...especially with frost
steadily melting out of the soil...is not expected to cause flooding
concerns.
...Longer Term Hydrologic Outlook...March 13 - May 30...
The overall potential for broader-scale spring flooding is below
normal across our 30-county forecast area.
Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued from February into March
to give advanced notice of any signals that might favor an increased
risk of mainly broader-scale flooding (beyond localized ice jam
issues). These outlooks incorporate various factors including: soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude, stream flow conditions, and the longer
range forecast of future precipitation.
There are several primary factors leading to our below average
threat for spring flooding.
- Snow cover in our local area is currently non-existent.
- The mountain snowpack in the Platte River Basin is mainly near-
normal.
- Lake McConaughy (upstream of our forecast area along the North
Platte River) is at only 59 percent capacity and has plenty of
storage space available.
- Soil moisture is drier than normal across our area (as evidenced
by most of our area being in Moderate Drought/D1). As a result, our
soils will be capable of efficiently absorbing most normally
occurring spring rainfall.
- Current streamflow on our primary river systems is mainly near
normal to below normal for this time of year, especially along the
Platte basin southward into northern Kansas. However, parts of our
Loup River system are indicated to have above normal flow.
- The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) three-month
precipitation outlook for March-May favors a slight lean towards
below normal precipitation.
It is important to note that isolated/localized spring flooding is
always possible from occasional bouts of heavy rain/thunderstorms,
even in dry years, when the overall, larger-scale risk for
widespread flooding is considered low.
For a graphical PDF presentation with information closely tied to
this traditional written Flood Outlook assessment, please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/gid/hydro/SpringFloodOutlook_2025.pdf
...Current and Recent Hydrologic and Climatological Conditions...
For an overview of annual precipitation totals/departures from
normal along with drought conditions/trends across our 30-county
forecast area exclusively for calendar-year 2024, please check out
our web story at: https://www.weather.gov/gid/2024precip_recap
Now we`ll turn to more recent precipitation totals/departures and
drought conditions during the just-completed "meteorological winter"
2024-25 (meteorological winter is defined as the three full months
of Dec-Jan-Feb).
As evidenced in the data presented in the table below (and supported
by NWPS precipitation analysis), the majority of our 30-county area
experienced a drier-than-normal meteorological winter (most places
between 40-70 percent of normal). The primary exception was in the
far southeast corner of our area (centered within/near Mitchell
County KS), where particularly a significant early-January snowfall
boosted winter precipitation to at least slightly above normal.
Speaking of snow...and despite a "mid-February rally" in most
places...2024-25 season-to-date totals are still running a good
4-12" below normal in most of our area.
Turning to current drought conditions and recent trends (per weekly
updates by the U.S. Drought Monitor/USDM), and despite the
aforementioned prevailing dryness, drought categories have actually
remained largely unchanged across our 30-county area so far this
winter. This is due to a combination of coming into the winter
months right on the heels of a notably-wet November, along with the
fact that winter is the climatologically-driest time of the year. As
of the Feb. 25th USDM issuance, around 89% of our area was under
Moderate Drought (D1), with only small slivers of Dawson, Valley,
and Sherman counties assigned Severe Drought (D2). Meanwhile, the
remaining 10% of our area was assigned less-serious Abnormally Dry
(D0), mainly centered over some counties west of Highway 281 and
along/south of Interstate 80.
The table below highlights precipitation totals and departures from
normal/percent of normal for meteorological winter 2024-25, covering
Dec. 1 - Feb. 28. Data is shown for just a small sampling of
official NWS cooperative observers representing various parts of our
area, along with a few primary airport sites.
Location Precip Departure Percent of
North Central KS Dec 1-Feb 28 from Normal Normal
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
Beloit 2.74 +0.20 108
Plainville 4WNW 1.11 -1.31 46
Smith Center 0.88 -1.20 42
Location Precip Departure Percent of
South Central NE Dec 1-Feb 28 from Normal Normal
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
Cambridge 0.48 -1.24 28
Elwood 8S 0.91 -0.76 54
Grand Island Arpt 1.26 -0.93 58
Hastings Airport 1.49 -0.67 69
Hebron 1.76 -0.91 66
Holdrege 1.07 -0.89 65
Kearney Airport 0.91 -0.87 51
Lexington 6SSE 0.75 -0.79 49
Ord 1.04 -0.94 53
Osceola 0.87 -1.66 34
Superior 1.96 -0.58 77
St. Paul 1.32 -0.79 63
York 3N 1.47 -1.30 53
...Climatological Outlook and Shorter-Term Forecast Conditions...
It`s now time to switch gears and look ahead to expected weather
conditions over the next several days and expected climate trends
over the next several months:
The next week (through March 8th):
According to our latest official 7-day forecast, this next week
looks somewhat-active, with mainly two distinct low pressure systems
currently expected to bring a widespread/cumulative 0.25-0.75" of
precipitation (in the form of both rain/some snow) to most of our
area during the next week. The first of these systems will be
centered on Tuesday (March 4), with the next one following two to
three days later. Temperature-wise, this next week average out at
least slightly above normal, but particularly Wed-Fri (March 5-7)
are most favored to average a bit below normal with highs mainly 40s
(and possibly only some 30s).
Two weeks out (March 9-15):
Looking out just a bit farther in time, the latest 8-14 day outlook
from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for a fairly high-
confidence trend toward above normal temperatures, along with a
slight lean toward below normal precipitation
Meteorological Spring (March-May):
Turning to the upcoming meteorological spring months of March-April-
May as a whole, the latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) three-
month outlook (issued Feb. 20th) indicates "equal chances" across
our area for temperatures to average above normal, below normal, or
near normal. Precipitation in/near our forecast area is primarily a
slight lean toward below normal precipitation being the most likely
outcome. Based on 30-year normals, total March-May precipitation
across the NWS Hastings coverage area typically ranges from 7-10",
with the lowest amounts generally west of Highway 183 and highest
amounts near the Highway 81 corridor.
U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (updated by CPC on Feb. 28th and valid
through May 31st):
Going hand in hand with the aforementioned slight lean toward below
normal precipitation this spring, this outlook indicates that
drought of at least Moderate (D1) intensity is likely to persist
across most of our area.
(The longer range forecasts issued by CPC and referenced in the
preceding paragraphs are based on output from various forecast
models, as well as forecaster expertise, and take into consideration
ongoing global/tropical atmospheric and oceanic states, recent
trends in observed data, soil moisture conditions, etc. More
information about these longer-range forecasts can be obtained from
the CPC web site at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
...Long Range Probabilistic Outlooks...
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Little Blue River
Deweese 10.0 16.0 17.0 : 32 31 <5 6 <5 5
:North Fork Solomon
Glade 11.0 16.0 18.0 : 6 15 <5 8 <5 <5
:Bow Creek
Stockton 9.0 12.0 13.6 : 9 21 <5 7 <5 <5
:Platte River
Darr 11.5 12.5 13.0 : 13 27 9 23 8 13
Overton 7.5 12.0 14.0 : 10 26 <5 <5 <5 <5
Kearney 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 7 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Wood River
Gibbon 15.0 16.0 16.5 : 9 32 8 26 8 21
Alda 10.0 11.0 12.2 : 23 39 12 33 8 25
Wood River Divers 19.5 20.5 21.5 : 5 22 <5 17 <5 9
:Platte River
Grand Island 6.5 7.0 7.5 : 15 25 13 21 8 14
:South Loup River
Ravenna 5.5 7.5 9.5 : 11 24 7 11 5 9
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater 16.5 18.0 21.0 : 8 27 6 9 <5 <5
:South Loup River
Saint Michael 9.5 14.0 17.0 : 11 19 <5 8 <5 <5
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 9 <5 7 <5 5
:North Loup River
Saint Paul 7.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar River
Fullerton 9.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Loup River
Genoa 10.5 12.0 13.0 : <5 9 <5 6 <5 5
:Beaver Creek
Genoa 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 20 <5 8 <5 5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Blue River
Deweese 2.8 4.3 5.6 7.9 10.9 13.6 15.0
:North Fork Solomon
Glade 2.5 2.5 3.4 5.4 8.1 10.0 13.7
:Bow Creek
Stockton 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.0 7.2 8.5 11.1
:Platte River
Darr 6.9 6.9 7.2 8.7 10.5 12.1 14.3
Overton 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.2 5.8 7.5 9.7
Kearney 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.5 4.9 5.9 7.2
:Wood River
Gibbon 4.0 4.0 4.0 6.1 8.7 14.2 18.2
Alda 3.8 3.8 3.9 6.1 8.5 11.2 13.2
Wood River Divers 8.9 8.9 11.4 13.5 15.6 17.4 19.7
:Platte River
Grand Island 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.5 5.5 7.3 7.8
:South Loup River
Ravenna 2.6 2.6 3.2 4.3 4.9 5.8 9.4
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater 5.6 5.6 7.7 11.3 13.3 15.7 18.4
:South Loup River
Saint Michael 1.9 2.0 3.0 5.3 6.7 10.2 13.1
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul 1.2 1.2 1.7 3.1 3.9 5.6 7.3
:North Loup River
Saint Paul 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.3 5.0 5.2
:Cedar River
Fullerton 1.8 2.1 2.9 4.3 6.2 6.7 8.1
:Loup River
Genoa 3.5 3.5 4.1 5.4 6.8 8.1 10.1
:Beaver Creek
Genoa 3.2 3.6 4.5 6.5 9.4 10.8 13.3
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Blue River
Deweese 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
:North Fork Solomon
Glade 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9
:Bow Creek
Stockton 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8
:Platte River
Darr 6.6 5.7 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6
Overton 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Kearney 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
:Wood River
Gibbon 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Alda 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Wood River Divers 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.5
:Platte River
Grand Island 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
:South Loup River
Ravenna 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0
:South Loup River
Saint Michael 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
:North Loup River
Saint Paul 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0
:Cedar River
Fullerton 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
:Loup River
Genoa 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Beaver Creek
Genoa 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
...Future Outlooks...
The next/updated spring flood outlook will be issued in two weeks on
Thursday, March 13th.
&&
Visit our local NWS Hastings website for current
weather/hydrological and climate information across our forecast
area at: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
NWS National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) river stage and
precipitation analysis data can be found at: https://water.noaa.gov
NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) climate outlooks and soil
moisture monitoring can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring
NOAA snowpack analysis from National Operational Hydrologic Remote
Sensing Center can be found at: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov
Additional climate information for the region can be obtained
from the High Plains Regional Climate Center: https://hprcc.unl.edu
Further information on drought conditions can be obtained at:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
https://www.drought.gov
https://drought.unl.edu
USDA information on mountain snowpack/precipitation that feeds
rivers that flow into our region can be found at:
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-
interactive-map
NOAA snowpack analysis from National Operational Hydrologic Remote
Sensing Center can be found at: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov
Burea of Reclamation (USBR) information for various regional
reservoirs can be found at:
www.usbr.gov/gp/hydromet/curres_google.htm
$$
Pfannkuch/Wesely