Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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KSC147-KSC163-051800-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Hastings NE
1154 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025
...2025 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This outlook is for the Hastings Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). In
central and south Central Nebraska this outlook includes the
Platte...Loup...Little Blue...and Republican Rivers and their
tributaries. In north central Kansas...the Solomon River and its
tributaries are included.
...The window for potential early-spring flooding from ice jams is
still present primarily along the Loup and Platte Rivers. This
window for possible ice jam flooding is quickly closing but will
continue through around Friday February 28th to Saturday March 1st
when after that point we expect most ice will have cleared out and
moved downstream of our forecast area...
...The longer term potential for spring flooding (not related to ice
jams/snow melt) is currently considered below normal across our
area...
...Shorter Term Hydrologic Outlook...February 27th - March 13th...
The primary flooding concern in the short term will be the
possiblity for ice jam induced flooding as the river ice melts and
breaks up through Friday February 28th or possibly into Saturday
March 1st. After March 1st any appreciable river ice is expected to
have either melted or moved downstream.
Our hydrologic service area is expected to remain mostly dry until a
possible storm system brings a chance for rain and snow by around
Tuesday March 4th. Although some frost remains in the ground as of
Thursday February 27th, this frost is expected to have melted by our
next rainfall and thus we expect good infiltration when the rains
come due to the dry soil. Therefore, flooding due to rainfall is not
expected over the next two weeks.
...Longer Term Hydrologic Outlook...March 13th Through May 30th...
The overall potential for broader-scale spring flooding is below
normal across our 30-county forecast area.
Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued from February into March
to give advanced notice of any signals that might favor an increased
risk of mainly broader-scale flooding (beyond localized ice jam
issues). These outlooks incorporate various factors including: soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude, stream flow conditions, and the longer
range forecast of future precipitation.
There are several primary factors leading to our below average
threat for spring flooding.
- The local snowpack has already melted.
- The mountain snowpack in the Platte River Basin is near to below
normal.
- Lake McConaughy (upstream of our forecast area along the North
Platte River) is at only 58 percent capacity and has plenty of
storage space available.
- Soil moisture is drier than normal across our area (as evidenced
by most of our area being in Moderate Drought/D1). As a result, our
soils will be capable of efficiently absorbing most normally
occurring spring rainfall.
- Current streamflow on our primary river systems is mainly near
normal to below normal for this time of year, especially along the
Platte basin southward into northern Kansas. However, parts of our
Loup River system are indicated to have slightly above normal flow.
- The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) three-month
precipitation outlook for March-May favors a slight lean towards
below normal precipitation.
It is important to note that isolated/localized spring flooding is
always possible from occasional bouts of heavy rain/thunderstorms,
even in dry years, when the overall, larger-scale risk for
widespread flooding is considered low.
...Current and Recent Hydrologic and Climatological Conditions...
For an overview of annual precipitation totals/departures from
normal along with drought conditions/trends across our 30-county
forecast area during calendar-year 2024, please check out our web
story at: https://www.weather.gov/gid/2024precip_recap
Turning to current drought conditions and recent trends (per weekly
updates by the U.S. Drought Monitor/USDM), and despite the
aforementioned prevailing dryness, drought categories have actually
remained largely unchanged across our 30-county area so far this
winter. This is due to a combination of coming into the winter
months right on the heels of a notably-wet November, along with the
fact that winter is the climatologically-driest time of the year. As
of the Feb. 4th USDM issuance, around 84% of our area was under
Moderate Drought (D1), with only small slivers of Dawson, Valley,
and Sherman counties assigned Severe Drought (D2). Meanwhile, the
remaining 14% of our area was assigned less-serious Abnormally Dry
(D0), mainly centered over some Nebraska counties west of Highway
281 and along/south of Interstate 80.
...Climatological Outlook...
Meteorological Spring (March-May):
Turning to the upcoming meteorological spring months of March-April-
May as a whole, the latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) three-
month outlook (issued Feb. 20th) indicates "equal chances" across
our area for temperatures to average above normal, below normal, or
near normal. Precipitation in/near our forecast area is primarily a
slight lean toward below normal precipitation being the most likely
outcome. Based on 30-year normals, total March-May precipitation
across the NWS Hastings coverage area typically ranges from 7-10",
with the lowest amounts generally west of Highway 183 and highest
amounts near the Highway 81 corridor.
U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (issued by CPC on Feb. 20th and valid
through May 31st): Going hand in hand with the aforementioned slight
lean toward below normal precipitation this spring, this outlook
indicates that drought of at least Moderate (D1) intensity is likely
to persist across most of our area.
(The longer range forecasts issued by CPC and referenced in the
preceding paragraphs are based on output from various forecast
models, as well as forecaster expertise, and take into consideration
ongoing global/tropical atmospheric and oceanic states, recent
trends in observed data, soil moisture conditions, etc. More
information about these longer-range forecasts can be obtained from
the CPC web site at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
...Long Range Probabilistic Outlooks...
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Little Blue River
Deweese 10.0 16.0 17.0 : 32 31 <5 6 <5 5
:North Fork Solomon
Glade 11.0 16.0 18.0 : 6 15 <5 8 <5 <5
:Bow Creek
Stockton 9.0 12.0 13.6 : 9 21 <5 7 <5 <5
:Platte River
Darr 11.5 12.5 13.0 : 13 27 9 23 8 13
Overton 7.5 12.0 14.0 : 10 26 <5 <5 <5 <5
Kearney 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 7 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Wood River
Gibbon 15.0 16.0 16.5 : 9 32 8 26 8 21
Alda 10.0 11.0 12.2 : 23 39 12 33 8 25
Wood River Divers 19.5 20.5 21.5 : 5 22 <5 17 <5 9
:Platte River
Grand Island 6.5 7.0 7.5 : 15 25 13 21 8 14
:South Loup River
Ravenna 5.5 7.5 9.5 : 11 24 7 11 5 9
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater 16.5 18.0 21.0 : 8 27 6 9 <5 <5
:South Loup River
Saint Michael 9.5 14.0 17.0 : 11 19 <5 8 <5 <5
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 9 <5 7 <5 5
:North Loup River
Saint Paul 7.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar River
Fullerton 9.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Loup River
Genoa 10.5 12.0 13.0 : <5 9 <5 6 <5 5
:Beaver Creek
Genoa 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 20 <5 8 <5 5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Blue River
Deweese 2.8 4.3 5.6 7.9 10.9 13.6 15.0
:North Fork Solomon
Glade 2.5 2.5 3.4 5.4 8.1 10.0 13.7
:Bow Creek
Stockton 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.0 7.2 8.5 11.1
:Platte River
Darr 6.9 6.9 7.2 8.7 10.5 12.1 14.3
Overton 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.2 5.8 7.5 9.7
Kearney 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.5 4.9 5.9 7.2
:Wood River
Gibbon 4.0 4.0 4.0 6.1 8.7 14.2 18.2
Alda 3.8 3.8 3.9 6.1 8.5 11.2 13.2
Wood River Divers 8.9 8.9 11.4 13.5 15.6 17.4 19.7
:Platte River
Grand Island 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.5 5.5 7.3 7.8
:South Loup River
Ravenna 2.6 2.6 3.2 4.3 4.9 5.8 9.4
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater 5.6 5.6 7.7 11.3 13.3 15.7 18.4
:South Loup River
Saint Michael 1.9 2.0 3.0 5.3 6.7 10.2 13.1
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul 1.2 1.2 1.7 3.1 3.9 5.6 7.3
:North Loup River
Saint Paul 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.3 5.0 5.2
:Cedar River
Fullerton 1.8 2.1 2.9 4.3 6.2 6.7 8.1
:Loup River
Genoa 3.5 3.5 4.1 5.4 6.8 8.1 10.1
:Beaver Creek
Genoa 3.2 3.6 4.5 6.5 9.4 10.8 13.3
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Blue River
Deweese 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
:North Fork Solomon
Glade 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9
:Bow Creek
Stockton 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8
:Platte River
Darr 6.6 5.7 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6
Overton 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Kearney 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
:Wood River
Gibbon 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Alda 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Wood River Divers 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.5
:Platte River
Grand Island 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
:South Loup River
Ravenna 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0
:South Loup River
Saint Michael 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
:North Loup River
Saint Paul 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0
:Cedar River
Fullerton 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
:Loup River
Genoa 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Beaver Creek
Genoa 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
...Future Outlooks...
The next/updated spring flood outlook will be issued in two weeks on
Thursday, March 13th.
&&
Visit our local NWS Hastings website for current
weather/hydrological and climate information across our forecast
area at: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
NWS National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) river stage and
precipitation analysis data can be found at: https://water.noaa.gov
NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) climate outlooks and soil
moisture monitoring can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring
NOAA snowpack analysis from National Operational Hydrologic Remote
Sensing Center can be found at: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov
Additional climate information for the region can be obtained
from the High Plains Regional Climate Center: https://hprcc.unl.edu
Further information on drought conditions can be obtained at:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
https://www.drought.gov
https://drought.unl.edu
USDA information on mountain snowpack/precipitation that feeds
rivers that flow into our region can be found at:
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-
interactive-map
NOAA snowpack analysis from National Operational Hydrologic Remote
Sensing Center can be found at: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov
Burea of Reclamation (USBR) information for various regional
reservoirs can be found at:
www.usbr.gov/gp/hydromet/curres_google.htm
$$