074
FXUS63 KGID 120922
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
422 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms continue pushing ESE across the
  southern half of the forecast area this morning. Once this
  activity moves out/diminishes, the rest of the daytime hours
  today are expected to be dry. A few sprinkles not out of the
  question late tonight in eastern areas, otherwise the forecast
  remains dry through Sunday.

- A more active pattern and potential for more thunderstorm
  chances returns to the area Tuesday on through the end of the
  week. Still plenty of finer details to iron out with
  timing/location.

- After a pretty nice day today with highs in the low-mid 80s,
  more 80s-90s return for Sun-Tue. Toward the middle-latter
  portions of the new work week, cooler are looks to build back
  in...with Thu-Fri highs in the mid 70s-mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data showing generally northwesterly
flow in place across the area early this morning...sitting
along the base of a trough axis extending south from an area of
low pressure sliding east across central Canada. Thunderstorm
activity that developed earlier Fri afternoon-evening evolved
into a wider complex...which continues to push southeast through
the forecast area early this morning. As expected, most of this
activity has been on the overall weak side...while sufficient
lift is present, MUCAPE is not overly impressive (though a touch
higher in north central KS), and deeper layer shear is on the
lower side. Through the rest of this morning, along with the at
times torrential rainfall already occurring, the main threat
with any stronger storms would be gusty winds. At the surface, a
reinforcing cool front also continues to sink SE through the
forecast area...keeping winds northerly, but on the lighter side
(outside of any thunderstorms, which are producing more
variable direction and stronger gusts).

Today and Sunday...

Current activity will continue to slide SE this morning, but it
may be a close call whether it clears the forecast area by
12Z, so did continue to carry some low end chances through mid-
morning. Once that finally tapers off...the rest of the daytime
hours today are expected to be dry...and be pretty nice by July
standards. Expecting gradually diminishing cloud cover from
north to south...forecast is on the slower side of guidance
getting rid of clouds across the southern half of the area.
Surface high pressure will continue to build south into the area
today...keeping winds pretty light. Starting the day generally
northerly, as that sfc high moves through, winds will be more
variable in nature, lingering through the afternoon hours.
Didn`t make any notable changes to forecast highs for today,
which are in the low-mid 80s (normal for this time of year is
mid 80s-low 90s)...with lower dewpoints in the 50s-near 60. For
most, things will remain dry this evening and overnight...main
change made was to add a mention of isolated sprinkles to ENE
portions of the forecast area, as some hi-res models showing the
potential for increased advection/showery light precip after
midnight tonight.

Forecast remains dry for Sunday with models remaining in good
agreement showing continued northwesterly flow in place aloft
and a lack of notable disturbances moving into the area. Winds
are expected to turn back more southerly as the sfc high slides
east...but not expecting a big increase in speeds, still mainly
10- 15 MPH. Models continue to show a warmer airmass returning
to the area...and forecast high temperatures return back closer
to normal in the upper 80s-low 90s.

Next week...

The start of the new work week is still forecast to be dry, but
models continue to show the northwesterly flow in place through
the weekend turning more zonal/progressive in nature,
potentially for the entire week. Periodic shortwave upper level
disturbances will bring a more active pattern...with
precipitation chances returning on Tuesday, continuing on
through Friday. Currently, the better chances (30-50 percent)
remain focused in the Tue evening-night and Wed evening-night
time frames...but it remains difficult to have a high degree of
confidence in timing/location details that far out. As far as
temperatures go, still looking at warmer conditions/highs in the
upper 80s to low-mid 90s sticking around through Mon-
Tue...with the potential for cooler air to build back into the
area with these disturbances passing through...highs by Thu-Fri
are in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern for this TAF period comes right off the bat in the
first few hours, as yet another round of showers/thunderstorms
continues pushing east into the area...with the main period of
potential impact looking to be between 06-09Z. Once this
activity pushes SE of the terminal areas...have the remainder of
this period dry with VFR conditions. Overall light winds are
expected for this period...generally northerly through the
morning hours, then becoming more variable as sfc high pressure
slides through the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP