044
FXUS63 KGID 081752
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1152 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Big-picture 7-day temperature expectations: Although still
  below normal temperature-wise most days, at least we`ll be
  more in the "slightly below" than "significantly below"
  territory of late (highs mainly 20s-30s with perhaps even some
  40s into mainly southwest parts of our forecast area/CWA
  mainly Saturday).

- Big picture 7-day precipitation expectations: The vast
  majority of the time will be dry, and there are NO MAJOR
  systems in play. That being said, it`s not "dead quiet"
  either, as especially Thurs and perhaps again this weekend
  will feature some snow shower activity and moderately-windy
  conditions with gusts 30+ MPH (at least minor/localized travel
  impacts just cannot be totally ruled out).

- In the very short term (next 6 hours): 1) we cannot completely
  rule out some patchy AM fog (especially over the deepest snow
  cover in our KS counties), but the light westerly wind regime
  (downslope) and overall-dry boundary layer should prove
  unfavorable for widespread issues...2) Much of our area could
  at least briefly touch -10 to -15 wind chills for what should
  be the last time for a while.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 453 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

-- PRIMARY 7-DAY FORECAST CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES:

- Temperature-wise, no significant changes of note (only minor
  wiggles a few degrees up/down here or there). If anything,
  today probably got the biggest "boost", with most areas nudged
  up between 2-4 degrees.

- As was last discussed here by this forecaster two mornings
  ago, I continue to carry at least some minor discomfort about
  "sneaky" snow shower potential Thurs daytime-evening. From an
  accumulation perspective, this appears to be a very minor
  "event" (likely no more than a few tenths of an inch), but
  there is at least some potential for brief heavier showers
  (impossible to say exactly where), which combined with
  moderately-strong winds gusting up to around 35 MPH could
  reduce visibility/cause some slick spots. Unlike our forecast
  two mornings ago, Thurs snow shower potential is now included in
  our official forecast products, AND have also introduced to
  our latest Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID).

- Although farther out in time and inherently of even less
  confidence-in-occurrence, a similar situation COULD unfold
  this weekend so this bears watching (for now have at least
  introduced a "chance of flurries" to Saturday evening-Sunday
  to help imply that the weekend may not be entirely snow-free
  despite expected very minimal accumulation potential.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
Earlier in the night, a pesky, relatively-narrow deck of lower
stratus clouds was draped through roughly the heart of our CWA,
spitting out random light flurries (such as what many areas saw
at various points yesterday as well). However, over the last few
hours this cloud deck has continuously shrunk and as of this
writing has all but disappeared over the Aurora area. As a
result, our entire CWA has crystal clear skies in place.
Meanwhile, at the surface, a seasonably-strong 1040 millibar
high pressure center is now centered just south of our CWA over
central KS. As we reside just to its north, our area is seeing
light, mainly westerly breezes of no more than 3-7 MPH. Given
the clear skies, light winds, and lingering snow cover, it`s a
fairly ideal radiational cooling setup (albeit technically with
some weak low-level warm air advection perhaps countering it
slightly). As for actual overnight low temps, most places are on
track to eventually bottom out a few degrees below zero (easily
the coldest night/morning we`ll see for a while). See below for
a bit more on wind chill concerns.

Briefly covering the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and
short term model data reveals that a large-scale, east-northeast
to west-southwest oriented trough axis is passing southward over
our Central Plains region, with more pronounced troughs noted
over the northeast U.S., southwestern Canada and most notably a
closed low over Baja.


- EARLY-MID MORNING TODAY:
Over these next 5-6 hours, there are two (non-precip) concerns:

1) Marginally-dangerous wind chills: Despite the light winds,
many places have already or still could at least briefly see
chills drop as low as mainly -10 to -15 (isolated colder). Not
quite cold enough to justify a formal Cold Weather Advisory, but
cold enough to justify a continued mention in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook.

2) Perhaps some patchy fog?: As is often the case once snow gets
on the ground, some models go "overly-crazy" with fog potential.
Believe this is mostly the case for this morning, as light
westerly (downslope) breezes and an overall-dry boundary layer
are typically quite unfavorable for fog. That being said, cannot
rule out at least localized patchy fog, especially where temps
could really "tank" over the deeper snow cover. Not
surprisingly, recent HRRR runs are suggesting that IF any fog
develops at some point this morning, it would mainly impact the
deepest snow-covered areas in our far south-southeast CWA
(in/near Mitchell County KS). Something to watch, but not a big
concern at this time.


- REST OF TODAY:
Assuming AM fog never becomes an issue, this should be a decent
day with plentiful sunshine and a modest warm-up (especially
west). Aiding this warm-up (and resultant low level warm air
advection) will be slightly breezy southwest winds late morning
through late afternoon (generally sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts to
around 20 MPH). While these breezes will obviously keep a "bite"
in the air, these "warming winds" along with plentiful sun
should bring a decent boost, even despite snow cover. That being
said, snow cover (especially southeast where deepest) will hold
things back. Nudged high temps up most places, ranging from
only low 20s far southeast, but widespread upper 20s-low 30s
most places and even some mid 30s far western counties.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Although expect our entire CWA to get through at least 6 AM
precip-free, this will be a somewhat interesting night in terms
of especially hourly temperature trends and increasing cloud
cover. Aloft, a broad, Clipper-like low pressure system will
approach our region from the north-northwest. Ahead of this
wave, mid-high level cloud cover will be on the increase.
Meanwhile, overnight winds of 5-15 MPH (strongest pre-midnight)
will shift from south-southwesterly to more northwesterly with
time, actually bringing in slightly warmer-low level air. The
net result of the shifting winds and increasing clouds will
likely result in a tricky hour-to-hour temp forecast, with many
areas likely to "bottom out" closer to midnight than sunrise,
with temps steady to rising thereafter (especially northwest).
Do not have the highest confidence in actual lows, but they will
definitely be notably "warmer" than this morning, and have most
areas aimed between 15-20 except closer to 10 far southeast.


- THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT:
Not much time to go into great detail, but the bottom line is
that we now have at least modest (20-30%) chances for passing
snow showers (possibly just warm enough to briefly start as rain
in the afternoon) across our entire CWA. These snow shower
chances are a very "different animal" of course than last
weekend`s organized/large-scale storm system. Not everybody will
see snow, but especially larger scale models (ECMWF/GFS) and to
a lesser extent higher res models (HRRR) are increasingly-
suggestive that especially the late-morning through evening
hours will feature at least isolated to scattered bands/blotches
of snow shower activity passing over our CWA from northwest to
southeast, driven by steepening low-level lapse rates under the
passing upper trough. These situations are always so tricky to
message, because actual accumulation is unlikely to exceed a few
tenths of an inch, BUT any potentially heavier snow showers
could combine with increasing north-northwest winds to reduce
visibility, slicken roads, etc. It`s not necessarily a textbook
snow squall kind of setup, but it could also certainly be "more
than flurries" in various areas. Speaking of the winds,
sustained north-northwest speeds of at least 15-25 MPH are
expected, and have increased gusts to at least 30-35 MPH (maybe
not quite high enough?). Temperature-wise, the winds will
certainly not make it feel all that great, but this should
nonetheless be the mildest day most of our CWA has had in a
while, with highs mainly into the mid-30s.

Any snow/snow showers should gradually vacate our CWA from
northwest-to-southeast during the late afternoon-evening, and
have all PoPs gone by midnight. Breezes will gradually weaken
late in the night, but will remain elevated and low temps are
"only" forecast to drop into the teens most places.


- FRIDAY:
This day should have some similarities to today (although maybe
not as sunny?) but certainly dry/snow-free in the wake of the
departing Thurs system and ahead of the next one with brief
ridging passing over aloft. Fairly uniform high temps low 30s
most areas.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY (the weekend):
Although it very well may not be enough, have "forced" at least
a "chance of flurries" into our forecast mainly for Sat evening-
Sunday daytime to at least help convey the message that a few
flakes could be around. In short, another broad upper trough
will drop into the Central U.S. from the northwest, likely
promoting more spotty snow shower and gusty northwest wind
potential. Based on the current track of the upper/surface lows,
the HIGHEST chances for truly measurable snow should focus from
the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest, but we could at least be on
the fringes of some snow shower activity. Temp-wise, it`s
becoming clearer that Sat will be the milder say with widespread
30s and even some 40s mainly far southwest, before about a 10
degree drop for Sunday ranging from upper 20s northeast to mid
30s southwest.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
Although it`s impossible to completely rule out at least a few
flurries here or there at this time range under
continued/persistent northwesterly flow aloft, upper
forcing/lift appears overall-weaker than this weekend and our
forecast remains precip-free at this time. High temps are
currently aimed mainly upper 20s-low 30s Mon, and low-mid 30s
Tues...so still slightly below normal/average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: At least MVFR CIGs possible late in the
period.

Rest of today and tonight: VFR with increasing high clouds after
sunset. Winds will be SSW to WSW around 7-12kt, highest this
afternoon.

Thursday: Clipper system will bring a cold front and chance for
snow showers to the area. Winds will turn from WSW to NNW
through the AM and incr, with some gusts around 20kt possible by
around midday. Along and behind the front will come the
potential for at least MVFR to perhaps IFR stratus and VFR to
MVFR VSBYs in light snow. Could even see a brief burst of IFR
VSBYs in moderate, wind blown snow for an hour, or two, just
beyond this valid period. Confidence: Medium to high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Thies