


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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664 FXUS63 KGID 082012 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 312 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - We could see a few isolated thunderstorms moving into our southwestern areas late this evening. A few additional isolated thunderstorms could develop about anywhere, but favoring our northeastern zones after 1 AM into mid morning on Wednesday. - Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. - Thursday will be a hot day ahead of the next cold front with highs in the 90s to around 100. However, Friday and Saturday will be more pleasant with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Today and Tonight... Mainly clear skies are expected for the rest of the afternoon and evening with light winds. Thunderstorms will develop across the high plains of eastern Colorado late this afternoon/early evening and track east through the evening hours. These storms could reach our far western zones as the storms diminish and die out late this evening to just after midnight. Additional elevated thunderstorms may form late tonight and closer to dawn on Wednesday mainly favoring our northeastern forecast area. These early morning storms are hit and miss on the models and would likely be rather isolated. However, can not rule out a storm or two becoming strong to severe late tonight/early Wednesday morning given MUCAPE values of over 3000 J/KG. Deep layer shear is rather weak at around 20 KTS so storms could be more of a pulse type thunderstorm rather than long lasting storms. Overnight shift will need to keep a close eye on the radar for this possible late night thunderstorm development. Wednesday... We could see some of those lingering thunderstorms from late tonight through primarily mid/late morning and again focused mainly across our eastern zones (20-30% chances). We expect a dry afternoon, but then another round of thunderstorms could move in from the northwest Wednesday evening/night (20-30%). Deep layer shear will be more impressive Wednesday evening at 35-40 KTS and MLCAPE values should be over 2500 J/KG with a weak vort max moving through. Overall the forcing is rather weak and models are again hit and miss on generating any thunderstorms, but if thunderstorm can develop in this weakly forced environment, then they could become severe given instability/shear profile. The SPC is indicating a marginal threat for severe weather on Wednesday and this seems valid given the parameters. The main hindrance will be questions regarding coverage area and if storms can initiate. Thursday/Thursday Night... This is when our more substantial 500 mb trough will push through with plenty of heat and instability out ahead of this system. We could be pushing heat advisory criteria on Thursday with heat index values south of Hwy 6 into Kansas around 100 degrees. This is our best chance at a more widespread thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm event and the SPC has already placed much of our area under a slight risk. Friday through the Weekend... Friday and Saturday will be cooler behind the cold front with highs only in the upper 70s to lower 80s most areas. Kansas zones will have the better chance for thunderstorms on Friday/Friday night being closer to the departing cold front. Temperatures should start to warm back up into the upper 80s by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: We have some models hinting at isolated thunderstorms mainly late tonight after 3 AM and possibly lasting through mid morning on Wednesday. Will continue to keep an eye on the latest model runs as they come in, but am considering a slight bump up in our POPs late tonight above the current 20%. Central and northeastern zones currently are the more favored zones for late night thunderstorms. Most models keep us dry today with clear to mostly clear skies along with light and variable winds. VFR conditions are likely to prevail, with again just that small chance for a thunderstorm late tonight into Wednesday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Wesely