555
FXUS63 KGID 092348
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
548 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances/light drizzle will slowly taper off into the
  evening hours as the upper level low across south central
  Nebraska lifts northeast and away from the region.

- Mild temperatures (50s and 60s) return to the area tomorrow
  afternoon and are forecast to continue in this range through
  the end of next week.

- A very small chance (15-30%) for precip returns to the local
  area Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. This does not
  look like a major event and some areas will likely see no
  measurable precip.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

A large upper level low remains centered across the heart of the
forecast area this afternoon and is forecast to lift north and
away from the local area this evening. Lots of clouds have
been rotating around the circulation of this low and across the
region this afternoon, but precip has become very light and
spotty. Continue to expect a small chance for additional light
amounts of precip through the late afternoon/every evening
hours (on the order of a couple of a hundredths of an inch),
with some partial clearing overnight as the low exits the region
overnight. For areas that clear out, expect low temperatures to
drop into the lower to mid-30s to start the day on Sunday, or
just a couple of degrees above normal for mid-November.

As full sunshine returns to the area Sunday afternoon, expect
temperatures to warm to near 60 across much of the area, in part
aided by light westerly flow. Aloft, heights will begin to rise
as a transitory ridge of high pressure begins to spread across
the region, ahead of the next west coast low which should move
onshore across California late Monday. This low will eventually
make its way across the central Plains late Tuesday, steering
some cloud cover and a small chance for precip across the area,
but this looks to be a weak system with minimal precip totals
anticipated locally. Behind this trough will come another upper
level ridge of high pressure that should persist through the end
of next week as the subsequent west coast low organizes across
the desert southwest. This should leave generally above normal
heights aloft through the period, with above normal temperatures
mostly in the 50s and 60s as a result, with low temperatures
falling into the 30s and lower 40s most days, which also
represent seasonably warm lows for this time of year.

Overall...mild and mostly dry conditions are expected across the
area behind todays departing low pressure system - all the way
through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: MVFR CIGs this evening.

Tonight: Upper low continues to spin overhead, causing bands of
MVFR stratus, and even a few lgt shwrs, to rotate through the
terminals. In general, should see both improving CIGs and decr
shwr chances through the evening as the upper low gradually
lifts NE. Exact timing remains unclear, but should return to VFR
by around 03Z. Some sporadic MVFR CIGs could persist longer, but
didn`t feel chcs were high enough to warrant a PROB30 group.
Winds have veered recently behind a sfc trough and should range
between SW to WNW through dawn around 6-10kt. Confidence: CIGs -
medium, wind - high.

Sunday: VFR expected through the day with WNW-NW winds 8-11kt.
Could see some SCT CU develop by midday behind the departing
upper low with bases around 1500-2000ft, but think any BKN
coverage should remain NE of the terminals. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies