061
FXUS63 KGID 300905
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
405 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will cross reach the tri-cities around
  midday...with gusty north winds (to near 35 mph) in its wake.

- These gusty north winds...combined with dry fuels and lowering
  dewpoints, will result in a near-critical to critical fire
  danger across the local area. The worst conditions are
  anticipated across the counties in the Red Flag Warning...
  which goes into effect at noon CDT.

- Modestly "cool" temperatures (2-5 degrees below climo) along
  with a break in fire weather concerns are anticipated for
  Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures (albeit fluctuating from 5-15
  degrees above climo each day) are anticipated through the
  remainder of the forecast period (and likely beyond) with
  elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns returning
  Wednesday and continuing through at least next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Steady south winds overnight have helped hold up temperatures
this morning above the past few days despite another morning
with nearly clear skies across the region. Still could see
temperatures dip for a short period around sunrise if winds let
up just a bit, but do not expect the mix of 40s and lower 50s we
saw Sunday morning.

Looking upstream...a cold front across the Black Hills of South
Dakota this morning is expected to rapidly track southeast
across the local area later today. This front should reach the
Tri-Cities area around noon, with a shift to northerly
winds...which could gust to near or slightly over 35 MPH during
the afternoon hours. These gusty winds will be slow to subside
during the evening hours...with the NAMnest being the most
aggressive in holding onto gusts over 30 KTS into the late
evening hours southeast of the Tri-cities. The combination of
these strong north winds, dry fuels and low dewpoints will lead
to a critical fire danger this afternoon and into the early
evening hours...especially for areas along and northwest of a
line extending from Franklin to Hamilton county. Elsewhere...
near critical fire weather concerns are anticipated...but the
timing of the front should limit the duration the most critical
fire weather concerns across those counties.

As winds eventually drop off by early Tuesday morning, a cool
start to the day is anticipated with some 30s possible mainly
across portions of Valley, Sherman and Dawson counties, but with
winds never really dropping off completely and lower dewpoints
advecting across the region, did not included the mention of
frost in the forecast as it appears extremely unlikely.

During the daytime hours Tuesday, surface high pressure is
expected to slide across the local area...and generally light
winds and near to slightly below seasonal temperatures should
settle in for the day.

Thereafter...temperatures should rapidly rebound in southerly
return flow around the departing surface high...with above
normal temperatures then persisting through at least next
weekend (if not well beyond based on the latest CPC outlooks).
While temperatures will be above normal through the weekend,
they will fluctuate more than the past few days, with a few days
mostly in the 70s and some others mostly in the 80s (climo will
be rapidly falling into the upper 60s by early next week). In
addition to these above normal temperatures, dry weather will
persist...with the morning ensembles continuing to push out the
next sign for precip possibly now to the middle of October...
and again...even that looks iffy with only a few members keying
in on any precip.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions through the period with marginal LLWS
towards morning and a shift in winds with a cold front being the
main focus this TAF period.

For tonight...very marginal LLWS is anticipated to develop as
the LLJ increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Models
indicate winds could increase to near 40KTS by 30/12Z...but with
sustained surface winds near 10KTS+, opted to not mention the
possibility of LLWS in either TAF.

The focus will then shift to a rapidly approaching cold front
which is just approaching the Black Hills region early this
morning. Expect this front to race towards the local are by
mid-morning, eventually reaching north central Kansas by late
afternoon or early evening.

Both the HRRR/NAMnest are indicating wind gusts will approach
30 KTS by midday, and likely not subside until very late
afternoon or early evening as the front pushes well south of the
terminals and surface winds decouple from the stronger winds
aloft as the sun angle decrease late in the day. Timing of this
front is right around noon...with the local passage between
30/16-30/18Z at both terminals when winds will abruptly turn
northerly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>048-060>063-072>075-082>084.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi