583
FXUS63 KGID 211138
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another hot and humid afternoon expected today. Winds will be
  out of the south and light (less than 10 mph), with afternoon
  heat index values topping out in the mid to upper 90s.

- Spotty shower/t-storm chances will return during the day on
  Friday as a cold front begins to track south across the local
  area. More widespread thunderstorm chances arrive Friday
  night into Saturday morning, with the potential for a few
  strong to marginally severe storms over this period.

- Occasionally unsettled conditions along with a significantly
  cooler airmass arrives over the upcoming weekend and will
  linger into at least the middle portion of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

A quiet night across the local area as clear skies and light
winds prevailed across the region. Satellite imagery shows some
low cloud/potential fog development near the Missouri river
valley, with no hints of fog development locally. Models do
indicate some fog could develop near our eastern fringes towards
daybreak, but signals are weaker than the past couple of
mornings and any fog development should be very shallow and
brief lived.

For this afternoon, expect a fairly sizable CAP in place across
the local area to inhibit and shower or thunderstorm development
during the late afternoon/early evening hours, and consequently
kept the mention of precip out of the forecast - consistent with
latest CAMS. The focus will then shift to the cold front
forecast to cross the local area on Friday. With this front
continuing to trend just a bit slower, have only very small pops
ahead of the front during the afternoon hours Friday, with
better chances during the evening and overnight hours as this
front tracks closer to the NE/KS state line by midnight. Given
forcing from the front, modest instability and some weak shear,
could see some stronger to marginally severe thunderstorms, and
nearly the entire forecast area is now in a marginal risk for
severe weather Friday/Friday night.

Behind this front, skies should clear and cooler air should
advect across the local area on Saturday. This should make for a
much more comfortable start to the weekend, with high
temperatures likely only topping out in the upper 70s to near
80s. Behind the initial front, northwesterly flow should
establish itself aloft across the local area for several days
as an area of low pressure stalls near the Great Lakes region
with high pressure across the desert southwest. This flow should
then usher in multiple additional small chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day, primarily focused during the
evening/overnight hours. In addition, a reinforcing shot of
cooler air will reach the local area by Sunday, with a more fall
like airmass expected to be in place to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with clear
skies, good VSBYs and light winds less than 10 KTS expected
through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi