699
FXUS63 KGID 042340
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
540 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds will continue into this evening, gradually
  tapering off overnight as surface high pressure builds in. A
  colder airmass also builds into the area, with overnight lows
  tonight in the upper single digits/teens, and highs in the
  20s-30s for Thursday (compared to mostly 50s we are seeing
  today).

- Looks to be a short-lived cool down on Thursday...with highs
  rebounding back into the low-mid 50s for this weekend.
  Forecast remains dry through the weekend.

- The start of the new work week remains dry at this time, but
  there is some uncertainty in that, especially Monday night
  into Tuesday as another upper level system moves in. Another
  cold front brings Mon-Wed highs back into the 30s and 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Currently through tonight...

For much of the forecast area, if it weren`t for the gusty
winds, today would have ended up a pretty nice day. Looking
aloft, upper air and satellite data show northwestern flow in
place across the region...low pressure continues sliding into
the Great Lakes region, while a bit of a blocking pattern
remains over the western CONUS (ridging extending north through
the Pac NW while low pressure spins over Srn CA). At the
surface, the initial frontal boundary/primary shift in winds
passed through the region early this morning...and is now
located over the Srn Plains. The push of colder air has lagged
behind, and in just now starting to work into far NNE portions
of the forecast area. Skies have been sunny through the
day...with satellite imagery showing a narrow band of lower
level stratus accompanying that colder air also sinking into
northern areas, but models continue to suggest it diminishing in
coverage the further south it goes. Thanks to plentiful sun and
increased mixing potential, it`s been a breezy/windy day,
especially for the northern half of the forecast area...where
gusts have at times been 35-40 MPH. The sun, increased mixing
and lagging colder air allowed for temperatures today to
overachieve...with 50s reaching further NNE, and lower 60s
reaching into portions of north central KS.

As surface high pressure starts settling south into the area
tonight, winds will gradually taper off, with light/variable
winds possible across the west around sunrise Thursday. With
the lighter winds and colder/drier airmass moving in, went on
the colder side of guidance for lows tonight...with upper single
digits in the north to upper teens in the south. Models show
potential for some clouds to move into NWrn areas, but not
thinking it`ll impact lows too much.

Thursday on into this weekend...

The forecast for the end of the week and through the upcoming
weekend remains dry...and overall there hasn`t been any
significant changes. Models remain in good agreement showing
continued northwesterly flow aloft...at least through Saturday,
as that ridging remains over the western CONUS and low pressure
creeps slightly further east along the western US/Mex border. As
we get into especially Sat night into Sunday, models show the
ridging getting broken down as the next system moves into the
Pac NW...while that SWrn low moves out onto the Srn Plains.
Precipitation associated with either system looks to remain
outside of the forecast area.

Out of this time frame, Thursday is by far the coldest day...as
the colder air continues settling south into the area the rest
of today through tonight. We won`t have the gusty winds for
Thursday like we did today...surface high pressure sliding
through keeps winds light, turning more southerly through the
afternoon hours. No notable changes made to forecast highs,
which range from the mid 20s in the northeast to mid 30s across
the WSW. It`s a short-lived cool down, with models remaining in
good agreement showing the coldest area pushing off to the east
Fri-Sun...and with more SSWrly winds expected through the
weekend, highs climb into the 40s-50s for Friday, with
widespread mid-upper 50s for the weekend.

Early to mid-next work week...

That next upper level moving into the Pac NW this weekend
continues to slide east as we start the new week...with models
in good agreement big-picture showing broader troughing in
central/western portions of the CONUS...but differ with the
magnitude/sharpness of any embedded shortwave disturbances. NBM
kept the forecast dry...but especially Monday night-Tuesday,
confidence in that isn`t overly high. Today`s 12Z GFS shows a
couple of more distinct/tighter lobes of energy in the broader
troughing, keeping any QPF closer to those vorts and keeping the
forecast area dry. The 12Z ECMWF is more broad, inching at
least light QPF closer to the area. So still plenty of details
to iron out in the coming days.

The next notable surface cold front accompanying this system
looks to swing through the area Sunday night, ushering in
northwesterly winds which look to continue through
Tuesday...then turning more westerly Wednesday. Highs on Monday
and again Wednesday are mainly in the low-mid 40s...with 30s-40s
for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR through the period.

Tonight: Brief bout of FEW-SCT clds between 3-4K ft possible
next few hours, but main story is the gusty N winds up to
25-30kt. Sustained winds 13-17kt this eve should gradually decr
after midnight. Confidence: High

Thursday: Expect a batch of mid level clouds around 10-12K ft
for the AM, but then clr to mostly clr skies for the aftn. Winds
will start off the day out of the N at 5-10kt, but then bec lgt
and vrbl by midday. Lgt Srly flow will return late in the day.
Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies