093
FXUS63 KGID 170102
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
802 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong NW winds currently in place (gusting near 45-50 MPH at
  times) will linger through late afternoon...gradually
  diminishing this evening/overnight. Current isolated/scattered
  showers across northern areas will also diminish this evening,
  with dry conditions overnight.

- Saturday still looking to be an overall pleasant day. Dry
  conditions are forecast, with lighter winds turning more
  easterly with time and highs in the 70s.

- A more active pattern is expected Sunday through Tuesday, as a
  couple of upper level disturbances look to swing through the
  region. Thunderstorm chances return to the entire area, some
  of which may be strong to severe, especially Sun-Mon during
  the afternoon-evening hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Strong winds which impacted much of south central Nebraska today
have begun to subside, and severe wind gusts near 60 MPH are no
longer expected. For this reason, the High Wind Warning has been
allowed to expire. While winds have begun to diminish, gusts of
40 to near 50 MPH will remain possible through around 10 PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data show generally westerly flow aloft
across the area...as we sit on the southern side of a larger
area of low pressure making its way east across MN. The
majority of the forecast area has been dry...but enough moisture
has been wrapping around the backside of the main low to bring
some isolated/scattered showers to northern locations. Not
looking at any notable rain out of any of these showers
unfortunately. At the surface, low pressure is also in place
over MN...with continued gusty NW winds area-wide. Gusts through
the day around 40-45 MPH have been fairly widespread...with a
handful of sites up in the 50-55 MPH range at times, mainly
across the northern half of the forecast area. Only airport so
far to hit `severe` criteria (58+) is Hastings, which hit
exactly 58 MPH this afternoon. Plenty of cloud cover sinking
south has also helped keep things cooler for some...here at mid
afternoon temps range from the upper 50s at ODX to the upper 70s
across portions of north central KS.

This evening through Saturday...

Spotty precipitation ongoing this afternoon is expected to
diminish by early evening...with the forecast for tonight on
through Saturday remaining dry. Models are in good agreement,
showing by 12Z Saturday, the main upper level over MN has pushed
further east into the Great Lakes region, while the next system
of interest is making its way onto the West Coast. This will
allow for broad upper level ridging to cross the area...with no
notable systems crossing the area.

At the surface...the current gusty winds are expected to
gradually taper off with time this evening/tonight...as a
ridge axis works its way into the area. Winds for most remain
generally NWrly tonight...with winds then turning more easterly
gradually with time through the day on Saturday. Compared the
previous couple of days, Saturday`s winds will feel nice...with
speeds closer to sustained 15 MPH vs the 25-35 we are seeing
today. Saturday highs look to be pleasant...topping out in the
low-mid 70s.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Best precipitation chances for the 7-day period continue lie in
this time frame, with a couple of disturbances looking to
swing through the Plains.

Saturday night into early Sunday morning, models show this next
upper level low/trough digging SSE...stretching from the Pac NW
into the Desert SW by 12Z Sunday. Some models showing the
potential for light precipitation to start working its way in
from the south early Sunday morning, stretched along the leading
edge of better moisture advection...shifting further north
through the first half of the day. Not a ton of confidence in
how impactful this would be, if it happens, so chances remain in
the 20-30 percent range for most through 18Z Sunday. Through
the afternoon...focus will be turning to the approaching upper
level shortwave disturbance, which will be swinging northeast
out of the Four Corners region on through CO. At the surface,
deepening low pressure will also be working its way ENE, ending
up along the CO/KS border by early evening...exactly where the
low is centered is still a bit uncertain. As a result,
confidence in the exact location of the accompanying sfc warm
front and dryline suffers...and their locations will be an
important part in thunderstorm/severe weather potential. The
entire forecast area is included in at least the SPC Day 3
Slight Risk...with the far SE portions included in the Enhanced
Risk area. Models showing plenty of instability developing
across the area, but again how much of that creeps north into
our forecast area will be dependent on the location of those sfc
features...and there is some question with warmer mid-level
temps/capping and how long it holds things off. Threat for
strong-severe storms may carry well into the overnight hours,
shifting further north and east with time as the LLJ increases.
All severe weather threats will be possible.

The shortwave disturbance driving Sunday`s chances is shown by
models to deepen into a more organized area of low pressure as
we get into Monday...and while storm chances linger through
the day/evening, where that upper low ultimately sets up will be
interesting. If it sets up far enough north/east...like some
models have...precipitation and severe weather chances may
largely be focused outside of our forecast area, driven by the
next shortwave disturbance swinging around the southern edge of
this newer low. Overall confidence in exact locations of the
upper level features and sfc features (which may impacted by any
boundary set down by Sunday`s activity) is not high at this
point. A more western location of that upper low would keep the
severe weather threat around at least the eastern half of the
forecast area...which remain outlooked in the SPC Day 4 15
percent area.

Models show things in the upper levels becoming more phased
together with time, but its not until Tuesday-Tuesday night
that the whole system finally makes a better push through and
out of the forecast area. Following forecast highs Sunday and
Monday in the 70s-80s, highs on Tuesday are only in the 50s-60s
as the system works its way through.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The forecast for much of the Wed-Thu time frame is dry in the
wake of this early week system...but there is some uncertainty
with how quickly activity does end Tuesday night, not out of
the question there could be some lingering activity Wed morning.
More northwesterly flow looks to set up across the
region...with models showing the potential for another system to
slide in Thursday evening-night. Current forecast highs for Wed
are in the 60s, with 70s back for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period with very
strong winds expected to persist through around 17/03Z...and
diminishing to near 10 KTS overnight.

Expect the upper level low over Minnesota this evening to shift
east into Wisconsin by midnight, with the strong winds in its
wake gradually decoupling and shifting east over the same time
period. The mid level clouds wrapping around this low should
also exit the area, with CIGS already beginning to improve at
KEAR with similar improvements expected at KGRI over the next
couple of hours. As winds diminish late this evening...could see
some modest LLWS for a few hours overnight, but with the focus
further north and east of the terminals as the low exits the
region, decided not to include any mention in the 17/00Z TAFs.
Skies should then become mostly clear by early Saturday morning,
with generally light northeasterly winds returning (with a few
gusts of 15-18KTS) through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi