672
FXUS63 KGID 052325
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
625 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a small storm chance (15-25%) for a limited
  (northeast) portion of the area late tonight (after
  midnight). Any isolated storm may have the chance to produce
  severe wind or hail. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) covers a
  few northeast portions of the area between a line from Valley
  to York counties. Most areas will not receive any storms.

- Temperatures should rise through Friday with highs peaking
  between the 90s and potentially the low 100s for a few
  southwestern areas Thursday and Friday afternoon.

- Heat Index values could exceeded 100 degree for a few Kansas
  areas Wednesday, becoming widespread across the full area
  Thursday and especially Friday afternoon.

- A cold frontal passage late Friday to easy Saturday should
  keep most areas in the 80s with a few southern areas up to the
  mid 90s over the weekend into early next week. A few
  widespread precipitation/storm chances follow the fronts
  passage primarily Saturday and Sunday (up to 30-50% chances).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025



Tonight through Friday...


We start out the afternoon breezy with south to southeasterly winds
between 15-25 MPH, gusting as high as 30-35 MPH. These gusty
conditions are merely a result of a compressed surface gradient from
pressure falls over the high plains. An MCV storm cluster
materializing over South Dakota this evening and tonight may propagate
into northern and mainly northeastern Nebraska late tonight. As of
now general model consensus has tracked these storms further north
and east of the area. The concern that may need to be watched for is
if a storm`s outflow meanders further south than anticipated,
potentially initiating a few isolated storms across our far north and
eastern fringes late tonight, after midnight. In reality, this
scenario looks not too likely as the storm`s tracks from most models,
besides the NAMNEST that appears to be an outlier, have moved
further away. PoPs have now been chopped below 25% for these far
northeastern areas.

A big IF, any storm does manage to make it into the area, the
potential for some severe wind gusts or even hail will be left on
the table of possibilities given the active and feeding low-level
jet. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather stretches
across a few northwestern portions of the area from parts of Valley
down to York counties tonight. The potential for most of these areas
to actually see a storm late tonight, however, is low. The marginal
risk for Wednesday afternoon/night as been trimmed some with today`s
update where now most of the area (beyond a few northern portions)
remains left out as there remains some question to the strength of
any forcing available Wednesday afternoon. The risk looks more
conditionally driven rather than actual storm potential. Our PoPs
remain below 15% for all areas.

Besides the minimal and concentrated precipitation chances
tonight/wednesday, temperatures will be on the up and up through
Friday. Highs should quickly close into the 90s by Thursday,
potentially into the low triple digits for a few southwestern areas
Thursday and more so Friday afternoon. Heat index values will
approach 100-105 degrees Wednesday afternoon for our Kansas areas,
becoming widespread across the area Thursday and especially Friday
afternoon. Mid 70 dewpoints protruding into a few northeast areas
Wednesday through Friday could help drive heat index vales above 105
degrees Friday Afternoon mainly in a few northeastern places. Heat
Headlines may have to be considered in a later forecast cycle for
Friday.

Aloft, the ridge stays firm for much of the week until a
northwestern U.S. wave swings into the Northern Plains Friday night.
At this point in time, it is too uncertain to know if this trough
will swing close enough to impact the storm potential for late
Friday night. Currently, we hold 15-25% PoPs Friday night for our
northern fourth of the area. A cold front should undergo
frontogenesis Friday evening along the High plains, eventually
spreading down and across the area overnight Friday or Saturday. The
timing and progression of this front should drive precipitation
chances for the weekend


Saturday and Beyond...


This cold frontal passage Saturday should save the day from the
continuation of the heat, cooling temperatures down to the 80s to
mid 90s for the weekend and for the first part of next week. Wind
directions should additionally become northeasterly behind the front,
severing the week`s persisting southerly warm air advecting flow.
The continuation of northerlies over the weekend and early next week
will keep temperatures out of the 90s in most places between
Sunday and at least next Tuesday.

The current string of drier days may become challenged over the
weekend as precipitation chances up to 30-50% return Saturday and
Sunday as well as 15-30% Monday. The day to day storm/precipitation
chances will be reliant on the strength and placement of the upper
level trough as well as the progression of the Front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period. Not out of the question some precipitation slides into
northern and eastern portions of the area later tonight-early
Wed morning...but at this point the better focus looks to be NE
of the terminal areas, so do not have any precip mention in the
TAF. If activity ends up being more widespread, even if storms
are not right over the terminals, outflow from other storms
could throw a wrench in the wind forecast currently in
place...which remains southeasterly through the period.
Potential for gusts around 20-25 MPH continues into
tonight...briefly diminishes a touch early morning, but the
gusts return for the afternoon hours. Models continue to show
the potential for LLWS at both sites later this evening through
the first half of the morning on Wed.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...ADP