286
FXUS63 KGID 121113
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
613 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Though more clouds around, today still looking to be the
  overall nicest day the rest of this week...highs climb back
  into the low 70s, with light winds topping out around 10 MPH.

- Dry forecast continues into Thursday, with increasing
  southerly winds as surface low pressure deepens over the High
  Plains. Sustained speeds of 15-25 MPH and gusts near 30 MPH
  will be possible, with the higher speeds across the western
  half of the area. Highs climb into the mid-70s, with afternoon
  relative humidity values dropping into the low-mid 20 percent
  range. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from noon-9PM
  Thursday, for counties along/west of a Nance/Merrick-Hall-
  Webster, NE to Osborne County, KS line.

- A strong upper level low pressure system crossing the Central
  Plains will bring increasing chances for rain, some
  thunderstorms, a switch over to snow, and strong winds Friday
  through Saturday. The switch over to snow occurs Friday night-
  Saturday, and even though overall light amounts are expected
  across the northern portions of the area, strong NW winds
  gusting over 45 MPH at times could result in hazardous
  conditions. Still plenty of finer details to iron out.

- Dry forecast returns for Sunday and Monday, with highs in the
  50s for Sunday and 70s for Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Currently...

Been another very quiet night across the forecast area...with
satellite imagery showing notably more cloud cover (upper level
cirrus) streaming through the area compared to the last several
days. Looking aloft, not a lot of change in the flow across the
region, with upper air and satellite data showing continued
zonal flow. Main features affecting the CONUS are a shortwave
disturbance making its way across the Desert SW and a larger
scale/deeper trough heading toward the West Coast. At the
surface, a weak pattern north of a stationary frontal boundary
is keeping our winds light and variable, outright calm at times.
Temps are a touch cooler early this morning, with readings in
the upper 20s to mid 30s for most.

Today through Thursday....

Forecast still has today being the overall nicest day at least
through the end of the week...though more clouds will be
lingering around the region than the past several days,
keeping skies at least partly cloudy for much of the area. Dry
conditions continue, with models showing that upper level
disturbance currently over the Desert SW passing south of the
area through portions of the Srn Plains. Even with more clouds
around, still expecting a bump up in temperatures, with
afternoon highs in the low 70s for most of the area. Models in
good agreement showing the surface pattern remain on the weaker
side for us, keeping winds light (topping out around 10 MPH) and
varying in direction across the forecast area as a whole.

As we get into Thursday, dry forecast continues with models
showing upper level shortwave ridging sliding east, set up
between the low moving out of the Srn Plains into the Gulf Coast
region and the next larger scale system moving onto the West
Coast. Fewer clouds are expected during the day. Late tonight-
early Thursday morning, expecting winds to become more
southerly, as a trough of low pressure starts to better organize
through the High Plains. As the upper level trough slides
further east from the West Coast, that surface troughing will
deepen with time, tightening up the pressure gradient across the
forecast area and increasing southerly winds. Did bump up winds
a bit, sustained speeds of 15-25 MPH are expected, with the
higher speeds across the western half of the forecast
area...where gusts near 30 MPH will also be possible. Dewpoints
during the day today are in the 20s-30s, and even with the
increases southerly flow, models aren`t showing a notable amount
of change in that for Thursday (lower dewpoints are across the
west). Forecast highs for Thursday also haven`t changed much,
still looking to climb into the mid-70s. The combination of
temps/dewpoints and wind wind will bring increased fire weather
concerns for the afternoon...and did end up expanding the Fire
Weather Watch another row of counties to the east...which now
runs along/west of Highway 281 and Nance/Merrick counties from
noon-9PM.

Friday and Saturday....

Thursday night, models remain in good agreement with the
eastward progress of the upper level troughing...showing a
more organized low pressure system developing with time through
the Desert SW...ending up over NErn NM by 12Z Friday.

Through the day on Friday, models continue to come into
gradually better agreement with the general track...but some
minor differences remain with that, and the timing. The path of
the upper low looks to slide east through the OK/TX panhandle
area, getting roughly along the central KS/OK border by around
midday. Through the afternoon hours, taking a more northeastward
turn, the center of the low looks to either clip our far SErn
corner or slide just outside of our border, ending up right
near/if not over the NE/KS/MO/IA border area by early evening.
As far as preciptiation chances go, forecast continues to have
the first half of the day being dry...and there may not be much
more that spotty showers into early afternoon. The better
chances ramp up mid-late afternoon...and the forecast remains
broad with widespread 50-80 percent chances, things could end up
a bit more scattered. More recent model runs (including the NAM
which now goes out through Friday night) have shown the
potential for at least a bit of instability to develop/spread
back east into our forecast area ahead of the main low...not out
of the question for values around 500 j/kg or so Friday
afternoon. Models continue to show the main axis of better
instability and potential for severe weather being focused to
our east...but will be watching for any slowing trend of things
in the models. Eastern portions of the forecast area are
included the SPC Day 3 General Thunder mention, with MRGL-SLGT-
ENH areas focused east of the MO River. Wind and temperature
forecasts remain tricky for the daytime hours on
Friday...currently continue to have mid 60s-low 70s from west-
east for highs, but if precip were to develop earlier than
currently forecast, that could throw a wrench in those temps.
Models are in decent agreement with the accompanying surface
low/trough crossing through the forecast area...winds start out
the day from the south, and eastern areas will probably be on
the breezy side through the morning hours, diminishing as the
sfc low pushes through, with NW winds on the backside then
starting to ramp up across western areas. Southerly wind gusts
near 30 MPH not out of the question in the east to start the
day...NWrly gusts near 30 MPH (possibly higher?) move into the
west to end the day.

Friday night into Saturday...models continue to show the upper
low taking a more NNErly turn, ending up near the
central/eastern MN/IA border by 12Z Saturday...continuing its
trek into the western Great Lakes by Saturday evening. Models
show a stronger deformation zone developing along the north/west
side of the departing upper low...but due to those lingering
timing/exact track differences...vary on just how much of that
impacts the forecast area. Colder air on the backside of the
system will be bringing a switch over from rain to snow with
time...but again lingering differences remain with just how
quickly that occurs...and how much QPF is left when it does
occur (is the brunt of precip departing before it total switches
over). Precip chances drop off fairly quickly Saturday
morning...highs on Saturday are currently in the mid 40s north
to mid 50s south.

As far as precip amounts go, by the time it`s all said and
done, deterministic models remain consistent with the highest
liquid totals (rain/melted snow) being focused across the
NNErn half of the forecast area. This is supported by ensemble
data, which show probabilities of 0.1" or more exceeding 70
percent across that same area...and even have some lower
probabilities of 0.5" or more, generally 10-40 percent and
focused over a smaller portion of the NErn forecast area. As far
as the snow amounts go, models (det. and ens.) have also been
pretty consistent showing this not being a big snow maker for
our forecast area...keeping totals around 1 inch or less across
the NNE half of the area...ensemble probabilities of 1 inch or
more remain mainly in the 20-50 percent range north of
Interstate 80. That all being said...if more dynamic cooling in
the system itself occurs and that switch over to snow occurs
quicker than currently forecast, higher amounts are not out of
the question. Just not a lot of confidence in snow totals right
now.

Another thing that`s been consistent in models is the strong
winds expected as this system departs. The surface low taking
more of a NNE track vs a more easterly track keeps that tighter
pressure gradient across the area longer...those winds ramp up
late in the day Friday in the west, spreading east Friday
evening/night...but look to linger around into the day on
Saturday, eventually tapering off later in the day. Sustained NW
winds of 30 to 40 MPH, and gusts of 45 to 55 MPH remain
possible...with the highest speeds/gusts expected to occur
mainly over our south central NE counties, especially
along/north of I-80. Take those winds, add in the switch over to
snow Fri night-Sat AM...and even light snow amounts could bring
hazardous conditions. Once precip ends on Saturday, and though
colder, the airmass is also drier...so the potential for
increased fire weather concerns returns for the afternoon hours,
mainly for WSW portions of the area at this time.

Still plenty of finer details to iron out over the next two days.

Sunday through Tuesday...

The forecast dries back out for Sunday and Monday, as this late
week system continues pushing away from the region, with upper
level ridging sliding through for Monday. Flow turns more SW on
Tuesday, with models showing the potential for another system
to cross the Plains through mid-week, precip chances increase
into the 20-40 percent range late Tuesday-Tuesday
night...confidence remains pretty low at this point due to
notable differences between models, but some have shown it could
be a better snow-maker for the forecast area. Ahead of that
next system, highs on Sunday reach into the mid- upper 50s, with
area-wide 70s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions remain in the forecast for this
TAF period...any cloud cover is expected to remain near/above
15k ft. Winds through the period will remain light, topping out
around 10 MPH, with direction variable through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ039>041-046>048-060>062-072>075-082>085.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ005-006-017-018.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP