014
FXUS63 KGID 052328
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
628 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds (shifting from west to north) continue to lead to
  critical fire weather conditions into the early evening.

- Cooler with lighter winds tomorrow, but still a little gusty
  in eastern parts of the area.

- Several spots could dip into the 30s Sunday night. Areas of
  frost are possible.

- Dry conditions continue through at least the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The cold front continues to push southeastward across the area,
turning winds to the northwest and north. Temperatures trend
downward behind the front, but drier air will also advect into
the area, keeping humidity values in the 15-30% range into the
early evening. Winds then slowly decrease this evening into
tonight. Low-lying areas in far northern and eastern areas
could see temperatures dip into the 30s. Some frost is possible
in these areas, but is expected to be too isolated for a Frost
Advisory.

Sunday will be noticably cooler than today, with high
temperatures near our climatological normals in the 70s. North
winds continue in the post-frontal airmass, and wind speeds have
trended upwards slightly, especially in northern/eastern parts
of the area. With continued dry air (RHs below 20%), these
areas could see elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions through the afternoon hours.

Another cool night is on-tap for Sunday night. Forecast
temperatures were trended downwards...closer to the low end of
the NBM distribution that is closer to MOS guidance. Many areas
should dip to the 30s, especially north of I-80. A Frost
Advisory may be needed if this trend holds.

Next week remains dry with gradually warming temperatures. Global
ensembles show no meaningful chances for rain through next
Friday. That said, the EPS is now showing an increasing signal
for light rain next weekend, so perhaps there is some "light at
the end of the tunnel".

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence of VFR conditions and clear skies through the
TAF period.

North winds will diminish going into this evening and the
overnight hours. Winds at around 10-12 kts at 00Z will diminish
to 5-8 kts by approximately 04Z tonight. By 15Z Sunday morning,
sustained northerly winds will increase to around 10 kts with
gusts to 15 kts, with winds diminishing to 5-8 kts again late
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Hickford