996
FXUS63 KGID 272117
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
417 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for a few storms clipping far southeastern portions
  of the forecast area continues late this afternoon-early this
  evening. Not out of the question for some to be strong-
  marginally severe. Wind gusts near 60 MPH/hail near quarter
  size would be the primary hazards. This activity wanes with
  the loss of daytime heating, the rest of tonight is expected
  to be dry.

- Gusty SSW winds expected to develop during the day on Friday,
  the strongest speeds across central-eastern portions of the
  area. Western areas will be closer to an approaching cold
  front, so winds don`t look to be quite as gusty. There are
  fire weather concerns for the afternoon, with RH values near
  15-25 percent in the west...but these values currently look to
  be offset from the strongest winds...keeping the threat for
  critical conditions lower.

- This frontal boundary stalls out across the area Friday
  evening-night, providing a focus for additional thunderstorm
  development as the low-level jet strengthens. There will the
  be potential for some of these storms to be strong-severe,
  mainly across south central NE. Hail/wind again are the main
  hazards.

- Another system swinging through the area on Saturday will
  drive that cold front south through the area...bringing highs
  for Sunday down into the 40s for most locations.

- Periodic precipitation chances will continue on into the new
  work week. Temperatures gradually recover, with 40s-50s for
  Monday and mainly 60s Tue-Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Currently through tonight...

Overall it`s been a nice day today, with warmer temperatures
over the entire area. Upper air data showing solidly westerly
flow in place across the region, set up between disturbances
over both coasts as well as along the US/Mex border. At the
surface, a warm frontal boundary lies across the forecast area,
roughly along the state line...keeping winds east-southeasterly
for most of our Neb counties and more south-southwestern across
north central KS. Satellite imagery showing plenty of sun out
there...with a few more CU starting to develop along a SW-NE
line across portions of KS, generally along a dryline boundary,
also separating gusty winds to its south from somewhat lighter
winds to the north. Temperatures have worked out well...readings
here at 3PM are in the mid 70s to low 80s, well above the
normal highs this time of year in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Late this afternoon into early this evening, there continues to
be the potential for that CU to grow further along that sfc
boundary and thunderstorm development. With an overall lack of
larger scale forcing, any activity potentially clipping
southeastern portions of our forecast area would mainly be
diurnally driven...waning this evening. SPC Mesoanalysis page
shows around 1500 j/kg of MLCAPE nosing into SErn portions of
the area, but deeper layer shear is lacking (around 25-30kts).
Can`t rule out a few storms being on the strong-marginally
severe side, mainly along-SE of a line from Osborne County, NE
through Fillmore County, NE. Hail near the size of quarters and
wind gusts near 60 MPH would be the primary hazards.

Once storms diminish, the rest of the overnight hours are
expected to be dry, with partly cloudy-mostly clear skies.
Overnight lows tonight are mild with continued southerly winds
and the warmer air mass in place...forecast is generally low-mid
50s. Low temperatures for the 28th will at least be in the
neighborhood of record warm lows...see the climate section below
for more.

Friday through the weekend...

Dry conditions are forecast across the area during the day on
Friday, another day of well above normal highs, but stronger
winds. In the upper levels, between one shortwave disturbance
moving through the Nrn Rockies and a larger scale troughing
moving onto the West Coast, flow across the region turns more
southwesterly. A tighter pressure gradient is expected to
develop across the region, as deepening surface low pressure
works its way east across SD, with a southward trailing cold
front moving into NE. For central and eastern portions of the
forecast area, southwesterly winds gusting 30+ MPH are expected
by late morning into the afternoon hours...western portions will
be more affected by the approaching cold front. By early-mid
afternoon, this front is creeping into our west, potentially
dropping off winds...at least compared to spots further east.
Aided by a more favorable SW component to the winds, expecting
better mixing potential...dropping dewpoints and raising
temperatures. Did lower dewpoints through the afternoon hours,
and with highs forecast to be into the mid-upper 80s (also in
record high temp territory, see climate section below)...do have
relative humidity values dropping into the 15-25 percent range,
the lowest values focused across far western areas.

As far as fire weather concerns go Friday afternoon...at this
point, the lowest relative humidity values are not well
aligned with the strongest winds...so while there is a broader
area of near-critical conditions, only ended up with a very
narrow, and brief, slice of critical values...so chose not to
issue a Fire Weather Watch. All that being said, there is
concern with the winds. Concerned that the frontal boundary
doesn`t make into the forecast area as quickly and/or winds in
general across the west just overachieve...with forecast RH
values as low as they are, it wouldn`t take a big change in
winds for a fire headline to need to be issues. Incoming crew
tonight will be able to get another round of model data and see
how that timing/winds trend.

Friday evening on into the overnight hours, focus then turns to
that surface cold front moving into the area...and the
potential for thunderstorm development. Models showing that
boundary stalling out across the forecast area, as its main
upper level push (focused well to our north) pushes east out of
the region...and another area of sfc low pressure deepens over
the CO/KS border area ahead of the next upper level disturbance.
This front provides that focus for storm development, aided by
the nose of a strengthening southerly low-level jet...most
models showing increasing to around 40-50kts. Models vary with
the amount of instability...MUCAPE values may be roughly around
1000 j/kg...so again can`t rule out some strong to marginally
severe storms, most of our Neb counties remain in the SPC Day 2
Marginal Risk area. Hail/wind would be the primary hazards.

As we get into Saturday and Sunday...Friday night`s activity
driven by the LLJ wanes Saturday morning, with precipitation
chances then becoming driven by a couple of upper level
disturbances that will be working their way through the Plains.

The first disturbance swings through during the day on Saturday,
providing that last push to get the main surface cold front
south through the entire forecast area. Models showing some
instability sticking around the region...keeping the mention of
thunderstorms in the forecast, but expecting the main focus of
severe weather chances to be just off to the SE of the forecast
area. Confidence in the overall coverage of precipitation during
the day is a little low...models showing some variation in
QPF...but what precipitation does occur looks to mainly be
focused across portions of south central NE. High temperatures
for Saturday remain tricky/low confidence...with that daytime
push of the front through the rest of the area...models showing
the potential for quite a gradient to develop from NW-SE.
Current forecast has right around 50 degrees in Valley County,
NE to mid 70s in Mitchell County, KS.

Saturday night through Sunday evening...models showing that next
disturbance moving out of the Central Rockies onto the
Plains...with the better overall/widespread chances currently
focused during the first half of the day. Still some
timing/location uncertainties to iron out for this time
frame...models again showing some notable variation in just how
much coverage there actually is across the forecast area. With
the colder airmass building in behind Saturday`s frontal
push...there will be the potential for some snow to mix into
mainly NNW portions of the forecast area...at this point not
looking at notable amounts. Gusty NNW winds behind Saturday`s
front look to continue into Sunday, with sustained speeds around
20-25 MPH not out of the question. Following the 70s-80s
today/Friday and the wide range Saturday...highs on Sunday look
to settle into the 40s for most of the area.

Monday through Thursday...

Overall no notable changes were made to the forecast for the new
work week, with models showing generally zonal/progressive upper
level flow setting up across the region. Outside of the daytime
hours on Monday, potential for periodic upper level
disturbances keep broad precipitation chances around in the
forecast for much of the work week...with current models
focusing on a potentially stronger system moving through roughly
in the Tuesday night-Wed time frame...lot of details to iron
out, but could have some storms out ahead, snow mixing in on the
backside.

Temperatures are expected to rebound...Monday highs are in the
40s-50s, climbing mainly into the 60s for Tue-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period. Any cloud cover passing through is expected to remain in
the upper levels. Models showing winds turning more south-
southeasterly with time this afternoon...with speeds remaining
on the lighter side around 10-15 MPH. This evening may bring a
brief period of more variable winds, eventually turning more
south- southwesterly through the overnight hours and into the
first half of the day on Friday. Models continue to show the
potential for marginal LLWS late tonight, mainly for KGRI, so
kept the mention in place for that location...was more
questionable for KEAR. After sunrise on Friday, models are in
good agreement showing increasing wind speeds...with gusts
around 30 MPH by mid-late morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Record Temperatures Possible At Grand Island and Hastings on
Friday, March 28th:

Grand Island
- Record High Temperature Friday, March 28th: 89 in 1986
  Forecast high temperature: 86

- Record Warm Low Temperature Friday, March 28: 54 in 2007
  Forecast low temperature: 57

Hastings
- Record High Temperature March 28th: 84 in 1910
  Forecast high temperature: 85

- Record Warm Low Temperature March 28: 55 in 2007
  Forecast low temperature: 57

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...Davis