009
FXUS63 KGID 241721
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1221 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
  possible for much of the day today. Can`t rule out some of
  these storms being on the stronger side with some small hail
  and gusty winds...mainly across the WSW half of the forecast
  area.

- Another chance for showers and mainly weak thunderstorms
  returns to the area again this evening/tonight into
  Monday...with best chances again mainly focused across WSW
  areas. Periodic precipitation chances continue on through the
  rest of the week.

- High temperatures this week, for most locations, remain
  generally in the low-mid 70s. There are spots where highs may
  struggle to reach 70 degrees this week, but confidence in that
  isn`t overly high...as that would be tied to higher
  precipitation chances/cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Currently...

Early this morning, upper air and satellite data show continued
northwesterly flow in place aloft over the region...set up
between a large area of low pressure spinning in the Hudson
Bay area and troughing extending through the eastern CONUS...and
high pressure anchored over the Desert SW and ridging extending
northward through the western CONUS. A subtle shortwave
disturbances embedded in this larger scale NWrly flow has
sparked off some scattered thunderstorms mainly west of the
forecast area...which are expected to continue gradually
shifting southeast with time, and there has been some expansion
of a few showers/weak storms further northeast. At the surface,
the main frontal boundary has pushed well south of the forecast
area, into southern KS and extending ENEward into the Midwest-
Great Lakes region. This is keeping winds across the forecast
area light (under 10 MPH) and east-southeasterly.

On through the daytime-evening hours today...

The strongest storms have developed in an axis of higher
instability (MUCAPE values closer to 1000 j/kg)...diminishing
to closer to 500 j/kg further east, including into western
portions of our forecast area. SPC Mesoanalysis page showing
widespread deeper layer shear between 30-40 kts. Hi-res models
continue to show the potential for a slight eastward shift of
increased instability further into at least central portions of
the forecast area through the early-mid morning hours...as well
as the potential continued expansion of isolated-spotty
showers/storms over the rest of the forecast area. With the
sufficient shear and potential for MUCAPE between 500-1000 j/kg
over the western half of the forecast area...some stronger
storms are certainly not out of the question...gusty winds and
small hail would be the primary threats.

Models showing the best chances for more widepsread
showers/storms being through the mid afternoon hours as this
mid-upper level forcing slides southeast through the
region...mid-late afternoon chances then looking to remain
mainly focused across SWrn portions of the forecast area...with
models showing better potential for a relative lull early-mid
evening.

At the surface, high pressure remains the main feature for the
area...with models showing the main ridge axis extending SSEward
out of the Dakotas through eastern portions of NE/KS.
Expecting winds to remain generally ESE today...and on the light
side, topping out around 10 MPH...but anywhere there is
thunderstorm activity will have the potential to have more
variable direction/speed/gusts. Because of the increased
precipitation chances and cloud cover through the daytime
hours...confidence in the high temperature forecast is not
high...especially across SWrn portions where those better
chances reside and greater spread between models/guidance lie.
Forecast is on the lower side of guidance...with highs right
around 70 in WSW portions of the area...lower-mid 70s further
NNE.

Tonight into Monday...

Expecting little change in the overall northwesterly flow upper
level pattern through Monday. Following a lull in activity at
some point this evening, models showing yet another upper level
shortwave disturbance sliding southeast out of the Rockies and
onto the Plains...bringing another chances for showers/storms to
the forecast area. The timing/main area with best chances are
similar to what is expected this morning-today...mainly focused
across WSW portions of the forecast area, closer to 06Z-after,
with the potential for isolated-spotty activity further north.
Models keep the better axis of instability focused to our
SW...and though a few stronger storms are not out of the
question, the better potential for severe weather and SPC Day 1
Marginal risk area is spread across portions of eastern CO into
western KS. Activity is expected to gradually shift further
south with time during the daytime hours...and current forecast
has the afternoon-evening hours dry, though confidence in that
is not overly high, a few models linger things further into the
afternoon hours. Also expecting little overall change with the
surface pattern, with that axis of high pressure lingering in
the area, keeping our winds light and generally ESErly. As far
as temperatures go...again with the potential for daytime
preciptiation and increased cloud cover, confidence is not high.
Forecast calls for low-mid 70s for most of the area...areas in
the far SW with those better precip chances are closer to right
around 70 for highs.

Tuesday on through the rest of the week...

Models are in decent agreement in the broader picture, keeping
the upper level pattern across the area generally west-
northwesterly. The amplitude of the pattern looks to lessen with
time later in the week...the larger upper low/troughing over
the eastern CONUS pushes further away...but the ridging over the
western CONUS never really has the opportunity to
strengthen/extend further north as it shifts east...as models
show no shortage of shortwave disturbances embedded in the main
pattern. Tuesday is currently dry...with the better potential
for those disturbances returning Wednesday on through the end of
the week...best chances currently forecast in this period is
Wednesday evening-night. High temperatures mid-late week remain
mainly in the 70s...didn`t make any changes to NBM highs
Wednesday- Thursday which have some locations not making it to
70, but confidence in that is not high, as it will be dependent
on how precipitation chances end up panning out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored through TAF period. A few scattered
showers remain possible in the vicinity of the TAF sites this
afternoon, but are too sporadic to warrant a FM group. SCT-BKN
skies are expected at KGRI overnight, remaining BKN-OVC at KEAR.
A scattered thunderstorm is possible at KEAR after midnight,
but the best chances remain south-southwest of KEAR. Have
included a Prob30 group at KEAR and not at KGRI since PoPs favor
KEAR and southwest. Sub-VFR conditions would be possible in a
thunderstorm but confidence in any impacts are too low to
include in the TAF at this time. BKN-OVC clouds around 050-100
are expected after sunrise at KGRI and KEAR. Light and variable
winds will become easterly overnight, and shift to the
southeast Monday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis