348
FXUS63 KGID 061021
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
Issued by National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
521 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances return to the local area late this
  afternoon through tonight as a cluster of storms rolling off
  the high plains moves in to the central plains. Heavy
  rainfall, hail to the size of golf balls and severe wind gusts
  will all be possible...focused mainly across areas along and
  west of Highway 281.

- Additional periodic thunderstorm chances exist across at least
  parts of the local area all week, with another chance for some
  severe weather possible Monday afternoon and evening, with
  less certainty beyond Monday regarding any severe
  potential/timing.

- Temperature-wise: Very "normal" overall temperatures (by
  early-July standards) are expected, with highs most days mid
  80s-low 90s, and lows most nights somewhere in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Overall, a quiet night across the local area as mainly clear
skies and light winds prevailed across the region. While so far
no fog has developed, maintained a small chance for some patchy
fog in mainly low lying and sheltered areas through around 9
AM...but by no means is widespread dense fog anticipated.

For later today, the main focus will shift west where an upper
level disturbance crossing the Rockies is anticipated to spark a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms across the high plains
during the afternoon hours. While we have some very small pops
in the forecast across our western and northern counties late
this afternoon, all signs are pointing towards a later evening
event, with the storms moving from the High plains during the
early evening hours, and possible not even reaching the local
area until 8-10 PM.

Ahead of this activity, instability will build through the
afternoon hours and the atmosphere will be ripe for some severe
storms by early evening as steep low level lapse rates and
plenty of instability will be in place. Given the later timing
of the responsible upper level disturbance, the greatest chance
for some stronger long lived storms and organized clusters will
be to our west, with the severe potential quickly waning late
in the night as it reaches roughly the Highway 281 corridor.
Therefore the greatest hail threat (up to golf balls) and
possible isolated TOR threat will be limited to our far western
counties...with more of a severe wind threat being realized as
the remaining storms head eastward overnight. Heavy rainfall
will also be possible under these conditions, and could see a
rapid 1-3 inches of rainfall with the stronger storms, which
could lead to some localized flooding given the fairly saturated
soils across the region.

Yet another mid/upper level disturbance will cross the plains on
Monday, which should again act as a trigger for thunderstorm
activity beginning across the high plains earlier in the day,
and reaching the local area by mid to late afternoon, before
progressing eastward. Again severe weather will be possible
Monday afternoon, with strong instability and appreciable
vertical wind shear in place to support severe weather. While
the focus of the strongest storms will be across the high
plains, a few severe storms (with hail once again potentially
reaching the size of golf balls) will be possible across just
about the entire area during the afternoon through mid-evening
hours Monday.

Thereafter...continued (messy) mainly westerly flow is expected
through the end of the week with additional thunderstorm
chances and near seasonal temperatures prevailing. At this point
it is still too early to assess the severe potential and timing
each day, but the current forecast has at least a chance for
thunderstorms across parts of the local area each day through
the end of the week and into at least the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period with
generally light winds overnight increasing to near 12-15 KTS out
of the northeast during the daytime hours Sunday. Expect the
possibility for a -TSRA or a -SHRA towards the tail end of the
period with a passing disturbance, but confidence low enough to
keep in a prob30 group for the time being.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi