841
FXUS63 KGID 101139
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
539 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures (highs
  near freezing) today.

- An upper level disturbance will bring a small chance for light
  snow/flurries and even some sprinkles to the area Saturday.
  This system will be a minor event, with no significant
  weather systems on the horizon for south central Nebraska and
  north central Kansas through at least the end of next week.

- Monday looks to be the coolest day of the period, with
  subfreezing highs expected for most locations, with a warm up
  into the 40s to near 50 (mainly across our western areas)
  possible for the middle and latter portion of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

A band of low clouds can be seen on satellite across eastern
Nebraska early this morning, but this cloud cover is expected to
remain east of the local area as it erodes over the next few
hours. As a result, expect little more than a few high clouds
across the region today behind yesterdays cold front, with high
temperatures climbing to near or slightly above freezing by
afternoon. With near full sunshine, would expect some addition
snow melt today with temperatures potentially overachieving
by a couple degrees, especially across areas with less snow
cover.

Across the upper levels, expect another upper level disturbance
in northwest flow to drive another weak cold front across the
local area Saturday afternoon/evening. While once again
moisture is fairly limited with this system, could see a few
light snow showers/flurries or even sprinkles across parts of
the area Saturday afternoon and evening. This system will be
quick to pass through the local area by Sunday morning, with a
backdoor cold front inching its way towards the region from the
northeast Sunday afternoon. This front will drop high
temperatures down into the 20s across at least the eastern Half
of the local area to start next week, before retreating to the
northeast later in the week - allowing above normal temperatures
to return by Wednesday.

Some discrepancy in 00Z operational model data towards the
middle of next week as the GFS tries to bring another upper
level disturbance across the local area from the north with a
reinforcing shot of cold air, while the EC nudges a ridge across
the local area. As a result, a 15-20 degree spread in model
guidance is noted towards the middle and latter portion of next
week, although when looking at ensemble data, the warmer
solutions definitely appear more favored. Either way, the 7 day
forecast period appears dry with only a few glancing shots of
flurries - the main one being Saturday - expected at this time.

Looking beyond the current forecast period, ensembles do pick up
on another period of below normal temperatures returning late
next weekend into the following week, with CPC guidance also
indicating below normal temperatures returning in the week 2
period with a slight risk for much below normal temperatures
across the local area from 1/19 through 1/22. Still nothing
major - precipitation wise - to note accompanying a return to
the colder weather at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated through the period with
clear skies this morning being overtaken with some high clouds
this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the NW near 10KTS this
morning, eventually gusting to near 16 KTS this afternoon. Winds
tonight will then drop off, becoming light and variable as a
prefrontal trough moves over the local area around 11/00Z, and
then eventually becoming southwesterly ahead of the next weak
front after midnight tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi