035
FXUS63 KGID 191124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An overall pleasant day is expected today, with dry conditions
  and lighter winds. Winds turn more ESE with time today,
  topping out around 10-15 MPH. Highs today are near normal,
  forecast to reach the upper 50s-low 60s.

- Precipitation chances ramp up from south to north starting
  late this evening-overnight, with the best, most widepsread
  rain chances arriving for the daytime hours on Sunday. The
  overall best chances (70-90 percent) remain focused roughly
  along/east of Highway 281. Precipitation ends from west-east
  Sunday evening.

- Sunday night into Monday morning, diminishing cloud cover and
  winds, along with lows dropping into the low-mid 30s, will
  bring the potential for widespread frost development.

- The daytime hours on Monday are dry, with warmer highs in the
  70s...with the remainder of the work week continuing to have
  periodic precipitation chances. Best chances are currently in
  the mid-late week period. Highs in the 60s-70s expected Tue-
  Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Currently...

Been a quiet night across the forecast area...with satellite
imagery showing partly to mostly cloudy skies in place, the
brunt of cloud cover affecting ESE portions of the area. Aloft,
upper air and satellite data show continued southwesterly flow
in place across the forecast area, sitting just east of a
sharper trough axis running NE-SW roughly from Ontario down
toward a closed low spinning in the Desert SW region. Larger
scale lift out ahead of the main upper trough is resulting in a
broader swath of showers/storms, which remain focused SE of the
forecast area early this morning. At the surface, high pressure
has settled south into the region, keeping winds on the lighter
side early this morning, mainly in the 5-10 MPH range, generally
northerly, but at times more variable in nature. For part of
the area, mainly central/NW portions, the light winds, colder
airmass in place and few clouds so far, low temperatures will
end up a few degrees colder than expected...here at 3AM
temperatures range from the mid 20s in the NNW to mid-upper 30s
further SE.

Today through Sunday...

Through the daytime hours today, the forecast remains dry.
Models continue to be in good agreement keeping the upper
level flow generally southwesterly, with that low pressure
system currently over the Desert SW gradually pushing east
through the day. The stream of upper level cloud cover currently
over ESE portions of the area is expected to slide east this
morning, giving at least a brief period of more sun, before
cloud cover ramps back up from south-north through the afternoon
hours. The surface pattern across the forecast area remains
weak, as high pressure makes its way through the area...which
keeps winds today on the lighter side around 10-15 MPH, turning
easterly, then southeasterly with time. No notable changes were
made to forecast highs today, which remain in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

Precipitation chances will start to increase late this evening
through the overnight hours tonight from south to north...with
models remaining in good agreement showing the main upper low
sliding into the OK/TX panhandle area, then starting a more
NNEward trek. Prior to 12Z Sunday, models keep the better
chances across areas closer to/south of HWY 6...but show
activity could be scattered in nature, so chances are topped out
in the 30-40 percent range across north central KS, 20 percent
further north. The overall best precipitation chances build in
during the daytime hours on Sunday...with models continuing the
trend of things being mainly focused across the eastern half of
the forecast area (roughly along/east of HWY 281). Have rain
chances in the 70-90 percent range across that eastern half,
with a sharp drop off down to 20 percent the further west you
go. Roughly mid-morning through mid-afternoon looks to be the
most widespread chances...with activity expected to push east
later in the afternoon, eventually ending from west-east through
the evening hours. Kept any thunder mention out of the
forecast...models keep better potential for instability to the
SE of the area. As far as rainfall totals go...confidence in
little QPF in WNW areas remains on the higher side (nothing to a
few hundredths)...as does the higher amounts being in the SE,
where the current forecast has around 0.75" being possible. More
uncertainty exists in between, with totals in the Tri-Cities
around a few hundredths near Kearney to closer to 0.25" near
Hastings...but any even subtle change in the track of the low
could push those amounts either up or down. With surface low
pressure taking a similar track to the upper low...NNE through
eastern KS into IA...winds will transition from easterly to
northerly as it passes by. Speeds topping out around 15-20 MPH
will be possible, with the higher speeds being across SErn areas
closer to that sfc low. Expected ongoing precip through the day
brings uncertainty in highs for the day...current forecast has
right around 50 in ESE areas, with upper 50s further west.

Monday on through Friday...

Late Sunday night into Monday morning, dry conditions return in
the wake of this latest system...with mostly clear skies
returning. A weakening sfc pattern will bring diminishing winds
overnight...with lows expected to drop into the low-mid 30s.
Forecast continues to have the potential for frost across most
of the area...more patchy further SSE, more widespread the
further north one goes. Will need to consider a Frost Adv as we
get closer. Otherwise...the forecast remains dry through the day
on Monday, with models showing shortwave upper ridging sliding
through. Expecting a notable warm up, with winds turning back to
the south...forecast highs are back in the mid- upper 70s for
most locations.

Monday evening on through the rest of the work week...models
remain in pretty good agreement looking at the bigger/broader
picture...keeping the upper level flow across the region on the
more zonal/progressive side of things. There will continue to be
the potential for periodic shortwave disturbances to cross the
forecast area...and several chances for precipitation remain in
the forecast through the week. Chances Monday evening-Tuesday
evening are on the lower side, mainly 20-30 percent...with
better chances (of rain and storms) mid-week on (mainly 40-60
percent), but there is still plenty of uncertainties to iron out
as far as timing/location of these shortwave disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are currently forecast for this
TAF period...but uncertainty in that increases in the last few
hours. An upper level system pushing NNE late tonight-Sunday
will be bringing increasing chances for precipitation to the
terminal areas...at this point kept mention out, as best chances
look to be around/after the end of this period, but not out of
the question that at least a PROB30 group may be needed prior to
12Z. Cloud cover remains in the mid-upper levels, late tonight
ceilings are expected to start lowering, but at least through
this period kept them VFR. Light/variable winds continue this
morning, and are expected to become more east-southeasterly
starting later this morning. Speeds still looking to top out
around 10 (maybe 15) MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP